Chiefs 2023

[Sparko]

There have been several interceptions based on WR's mistakes and drops. Bell didn't seem to even want the ball thrown to him. At least knock down the pass. Toney seemed unfamiliar with his hands.

[twocoach]

Having been a Chiefs fan for 50 years, I have some long term perspective.

We have hosted the AFC Championship game for 5 years running now and been to three Super Bowls in that time. Best run of any sports team in KC during my tenure. This year we will likely have to win a playoff game on the road. We have what seems to be one of the better Chief's defensive groups of this run. In a couple of weeks they start playing for the trophy. Every team will be one injury away from the end of their season. We have the only QB who I ever saw win a SB while hopping around on one leg. The playoffs might be even more fun to watch this year. little dave showed up in his big boy pants for the 2022 NCAA Tourney so anything can happen.

All that said, if Moore and Toney don't come back next year I won't be sad.

The good news is that one of those Super Bowl runs came as a 2 seed when the 1 seed lost earlier in the playoffs. In 2019 the Chiefs were the 2 seed behind Baltimore before the Ravens shit their pants at home vs 6 seed Tennessee. Wouldn't surprise me to see Baltimore drop before the AFCCG again. KC just has to handle their business at home to make it to the AFCCG.

[pdub]

If Buffalo takes care of it's two cupcakes, they could be looking at winning the AFC East in the last game in Miami. The Dolphins have DAL, BAL and BUF to end the season.

Sorry Bengals and Colts but I'd very much like for you to be our opening opponent...even with Jake Browning emerging...over the Dolphins or Bills.

Hopefully the Bills and Dolphins occupy that 3rd seed and that 5th or 6th seed and neither of them drop to be the 7th. ( and ideally we also avoid the Browns because I think a dominant defense could really disrupt us )

I know we'd have to beat them twice but the most realistic scenario i'd want is the Bengals as the 7 vs us as the 2. They've lost Burrow and Jamar Chase and we could get an easier path to both winning the first game and evening out that Bengals vs Mahomes record.

[jfish26]

If Buffalo takes care of it's two cupcakes, they could be looking at winning the AFC East in the last game in Miami. The Dolphins have DAL, BAL and BUF to end the season.

Sorry Bengals and Colts but I'd very much like for you to be our opening opponent...even with Jake Browning emerging...over the Dolphins or Bills.

Hopefully the Bills and Dolphins occupy that 3rd seed and that 5th or 6th seed and neither of them drop to be the 7th. ( and ideally we also avoid the Browns because I think a dominant defense could really disrupt us )

I know we'd have to beat them twice but the most realistic scenario i'd want is the Bengals as the 7 vs us as the 2. They've lost Burrow and Jamar Chase and we could get an easier path to both winning the first game and evening out that Bengals vs Mahomes record.

Maybe I'm being naive, but I'm just not that exercised by whatever the path is. I think it's WAY more about how we play, than WHO we play.

That's why yesterday is so...confusing.

Because on one hand, putting up 27 on New England - with a dropped TD and two INTs that, together should count against Pat as 0.5 INT - is no joke. That's an offense that works!

However.

The dropped TD and 1.5 non-Pat INTs are, unfortunately, part of an established thing, not a blip. (As is the absurd call against Rice...and Rice's fumble-but-not-a-fumble.)

You offered the Dave reference earlier. You and I don't see eye-to-eye on his career taken as a whole. But I think it's instructive in at least one case: if the Chiefs do their good shit, and do less of their bad shit, there's a banner waiting.

[twocoach]

If I go off of what ESPN has for their Playoff Picture predictions: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/388 ... super-bowl

it doesn't look like the Dolphins can drop all the way to the 7th seed due to their W-L record. If Buffalo wins the AFC East, the highest they can be is the 4 seed and then Miami would be the 6 seed. It looks like the possibilities in order of likelihood for the 7th seed are Buffalo, Bengals, Colts, Texans and Broncos. Buffalo is easily the team in all that I'd rather avoid.

[pdub]

If the Dolphins lost 3 in a row, they'd be 10-7.
Browns could beat that.
I guess that means that even if the Colts, Bengals and Texans win out the Dolphins must hold the tiebreaker v them already.

Also if Buffalo wins the AFC East they could still be the 3 seed ( hell, even the 2 with a tiebreaker over us ).
Jacksonville has the same record as the Bills right now.

[pdub]

Isn't this a possible scenario where Miami gets the 7?

Baltimore wins 2 of 3. 1 seed.
Chiefs win out. 2 seed.
Bills win out - Bills 11-6. 3 seed.
Jacksonville wins out - Jags 11-6. 4 seed ( swept Colts ).

Browns win 2 of 3 ( @ Texans, v Jets ) - Browns 11-6. 5 seed.
Colts win 3 in a row - ( @ Falcons, v Raiders, v Texans ). 11-6. 6 seed.
Miami looses 3 in a row - Miami 10-7. 7 seed.

[twocoach]

Isn't this a possible scenario where Miami gets the 7?

Baltimore wins 2 of 3. 1 seed.
Chiefs win out. 2 seed.
Bills win 3 in a row - Bills 11-6. 3 seed.
Jacksonville wins out - Jags 11-6. 4 seed.

Browns win 2 of 3 ( @ Texans, v Jets ) - Browns 11-6. 5 seed.
Colts win 3 in a row - ( @ Falcons, v Raiders, v Texans ). 11-6. 6 seed.
Miami looses 3 in a row - Miami 10-7. 7 seed.

I didn't see the note at the bottom of their chart that said "Multiple teams with chances less than 10% are not included". So yes, that is a possibility, I stand corrected.

At this point, I don't feel super confident about KC in any playoff game and their schedule is so weak coming up that I don't know if they can do much in the regular season to increase my confidence. When a team is consistently guilty of shooting themselves in the foot this much with turnovers, drops and penalties, you never know what you're going to get from week to week. It still wouldn't shock me if KC wins the Super Bowl but it also wouldn't shock me if they lost their first playoff game. Just a weird season overall.

[pdub]

Give me Cincy down Burrow and Chase as the 7 over the surging Bills or the Myles Garrett led Browns.
Minshew and the Colts would be my next in line.

[twocoach]

Give me Cincy down Burrow and Chase as the 7 over the surging Bills or the Myles Garrett led Browns.
Minshew and the Colts would be my next in line.

Same, although I am not sure how long Chase will be out. It's reported he has a sprained AC joint and is "day to day". I hope KC is able to pull up to that 2 seed.

[Shirley]

Rich Eisen on Whether the Chiefs’ Risky Bet on WR Kadarius Toney Will Pay Off or Cost Them Big Time

[pdub]

He most certainly won’t get it—he won’t even be top 5 in voting—but there’s argument for Patrick Mahomes deserving MVP depending on how you interpret it.

Stats wise, he's probably not there BUT:

The average number of drops in the league is 15. KC has 26 drops.
So let's take away 11 of those.
We will also take away 2 of those very memorable drops from very easy catches that led to INT's by Toney.
And we'll add 2 of those very memorable drops by MVS and Skyy Moore as TD's.

So using Mahomes average, he'd have 3,780 yards passing, but one of those drops was a 60 yard bomb perfectly in MVS's hands, so we'll bump that up another 53 yards.

3,833 passing yards, 2nd in the NFL.
He'd have a 69.5% completion percentage, 3rd in the NFL for players with over 150 completions.
He'd have 27 TD's, 2nd in the NFL.
He'd still have 11 INT's which is not great.
And he'd have his 334 rushing yards which is 5th in the NFL.

He already leads all QBs in total yards but would now lead 2nd place Tua by almost 200 yards. So 1st in total yards.

And this is with modest changes because a number of those drops were more than 7 yards.

Depending on how he plays against Vegas, Cincy and the Chargers, you could reasonably see with those 11 fewer drops how he could have finished 1st in TDs ( 2 behind Purdy currently ), top 3 in completion %, with the most passing yards and most total yards.

And finally, as mentioned before, there have been many moments where our WR's could have had catches that likely would have changed the game in our favor...so in this hypothetical, let's say the Chiefs are 10-4 with a path to clinching the AFC 1 seed.

His skill players are completely failing him.
Without him this team might be fighting for a top 5 pick.

[Sparko]

Fundamentals. Complete the catch. Secure. Run. New WR coach. Not running routes correctly or catching the ball, new player or not, is on coaching.

[pdub]

Meh.
At this level, you put more of the blame on the player for incorrect routes or drops.
You put more of the blame on the coaches for play calls that get blown up.

[twocoach]

Fundamentals. Complete the catch. Secure. Run. New WR coach. Not running routes correctly or catching the ball, new player or not, is on coaching.

Maybe in high school or even college. In the NFL, they are grown ass professional adults and should be expected to do the fundamentals of the job they are paid a very lucrative salary to perform. It's hard to imagine a WR making millions per year giving a ton of attention to some random WR coach making a few hundred thousand a year.

[jfish26]

To me, "catching" is much closer to "running fast" and "jumping high" than it is to "making the right choice on option routes" and "running precise routes".

In other words, having guys that can't catch the fucking ball is on the roster side (Veach and friends) not the coaching side (Reid and friends).

[jfish26]

He most certainly won’t get it—he won’t even be top 5 in voting—but there’s argument for Patrick Mahomes deserving MVP depending on how you interpret it.

Stats wise, he's probably not there BUT:

The average number of drops in the league is 15. KC has 26 drops.
So let's take away 11 of those.
We will also take away 2 of those very memorable drops from very easy catches that led to INT's by Toney.
And we'll add 2 of those very memorable drops by MVS and Skyy Moore as TD's.

So using Mahomes average, he'd have 3,780 yards passing, but one of those drops was a 60 yard bomb perfectly in MVS's hands, so we'll bump that up another 53 yards.

3,833 passing yards, 2nd in the NFL.
He'd have a 69.5% completion percentage, 3rd in the NFL for players with over 150 completions.
He'd have 27 TD's, 2nd in the NFL.
He'd still have 11 INT's which is not great.
And he'd have his 334 rushing yards which is 5th in the NFL.

He already leads all QBs in total yards but would now lead 2nd place Tua by almost 200 yards. So 1st in total yards.

And this is with modest changes because a number of those drops were more than 7 yards.

Depending on how he plays against Vegas, Cincy and the Chargers, you could reasonably see with those 11 fewer drops how he could have finished 1st in TDs ( 2 behind Purdy currently ), top 3 in completion %, with the most passing yards and most total yards.

And finally, as mentioned before, there have been many moments where our WR's could have had catches that likely would have changed the game in our favor...so in this hypothetical, let's say the Chiefs are 10-4 with a path to clinching the AFC 1 seed.

His skill players are completely failing him.
Without him this team might be fighting for a top 5 pick.

I agree, but it'll never happen. I suppose there's a world in which Buffalo falls flat (taking Allen out), the Chiefs roar to life over the last three games and Purdy/McCaffrey split SF-friendly votes.*

But, nah.

* I heard a radio dipshit yesterday say it's gotta be Purdy, because this is a QB award. To which I would say, the fact that it's even a QUESTION means it's gotta be McCaffrey; the fact that Purdy is even in the conversation is BECAUSE of how good McCaffrey is.

[pdub]

I'd vote McCaffrey.

[jfish26]

I'd vote McCaffrey.

I would, too.

[Sparko]

Fundamentals. Complete the catch. Secure. Run. New WR coach. Not running routes correctly or catching the ball, new player or not, is on coaching.

Maybe in high school or even college. In the NFL, they are grown ass professional adults and should be expected to do the fundamentals of the job they are paid a very lucrative salary to perform. It's hard to imagine a WR making millions per year giving a ton of attention to some random WR coach making a few hundred thousand a year.

Most are Rookies or new with bad habits. You get their attention and their focus. Rice seems to get it. Not saying they are not to blame, but not getting them better by the last few games is on coaching. MVS had no drops his last year in Green Bay. And coaching makes a big difference at every level. See the Chargers.