COVID-19 - On the Ground

[Shirley]

...Dr. Breen’s father, Dr. Philip C. Breen, said she had described devastating scenes of the toll the coronavirus took on patients.

...Dr. Breen, 49, did not have a history of mental illness, her father said. But he said that when he last spoke with her, she seemed detached, and he could tell something was wrong. She had described to him an onslaught of patients who were dying before they could even be taken out of ambulances.

...Dr. Lawrence A. Melniker, the vice chair for quality care at the NewYork-Presbyterian Brooklyn Methodist Hospital, said that Dr. Breen was a well-respected and well-liked doctor in the NewYork-Presbyterian system, a network of hospitals that includes the Columbia University Irving Medical Center and the Weill Cornell Medical Center.

“You don’t get to a position like that at Allen without being very talented,” he said...

[Deleted User 89]

Some people don't believe some of the extent of what the media ( CNN or Fox News has been discussed here as manipulating ) or what government officials have been reporting.

I'm no tinfoil ( it's not a coup ) but I do think there's a lot of misinformation and possibly some overreaction.
i.e. I don't wear a mask when I go into the grocery store or gas station if I'm alone - I don't sneeze or cough or touch my face in the store, I maintain my distance, I only pick up items I know i'm going to take, I have been at home for a month now so I've done the whole 14 day quarantine thing.
I think places like beaches/parks should be opened with an order to maintain social distancing in groups.

This is coming from a person in Maine where there aren't a number of confirmed cases ( because no tests! ) and there is naturally social distancing because not a lot of people live here. In a city like Manhattan ( NY sorry tmcats ), I would act differently and certainly wear a mask out in public.

I'm sure other posters will disagree here, and that's fine, I get why you disagree.

i agree with this sentiment except for the fact that so many americans are dipshits...as evidenced by the crowding seen at both parks and beaches over just the past few days

i can’t trust the average citizen to do the right, reasonable, or logical thing

[jfish26]

Some people don't believe some of the extent of what the media ( CNN or Fox News has been discussed here as manipulating ) or what government officials have been reporting.

I'm no tinfoil ( it's not a coup ) but I do think there's a lot of misinformation and possibly some overreaction.
i.e. I don't wear a mask when I go into the grocery store or gas station if I'm alone - I don't sneeze or cough or touch my face in the store, I maintain my distance, I only pick up items I know i'm going to take, I have been at home for a month now so I've done the whole 14 day quarantine thing.
I think places like beaches/parks should be opened with an order to maintain social distancing in groups.

This is coming from a person in Maine where there aren't a number of confirmed cases ( because no tests! ) and there is naturally social distancing because not a lot of people live here. In a city like Manhattan ( NY sorry tmcats ), I would act differently and certainly wear a mask out in public.

I'm sure other posters will disagree here, and that's fine, I get why you disagree.

i agree with this sentiment except for the fact that so many americans are dipshits...as evidenced by the crowding seen at both parks and beaches over just the past few days

i can’t trust the average citizen to do the right, reasonable, or logical thing

Particularly when, at the end of the day, the only reliable way to keep yourself from becoming a vector (and possibly getting quite sick) is to minimize contact.

We can't all stay home forever. But those who can, should, for at least a good while longer. I also fear that this whole "reopening the economy" thing is a whole lot of false hope, because customers/diners/theatergoers etc. are still, you know, not going to fucking want to be in crowded places.

[HouseDivided]

Some people don't believe some of the extent of what the media ( CNN or Fox News has been discussed here as manipulating ) or what government officials have been reporting.

I'm no tinfoil ( it's not a coup ) but I do think there's a lot of misinformation and possibly some overreaction.
i.e. I don't wear a mask when I go into the grocery store or gas station if I'm alone - I don't sneeze or cough or touch my face in the store, I maintain my distance, I only pick up items I know i'm going to take, I have been at home for a month now so I've done the whole 14 day quarantine thing.
I think places like beaches/parks should be opened with an order to maintain social distancing in groups.

This is coming from a person in Maine where there aren't a number of confirmed cases ( because no tests! ) and there is naturally social distancing because not a lot of people live here. In a city like Manhattan ( NY sorry tmcats ), I would act differently and certainly wear a mask out in public.

I'm sure other posters will disagree here, and that's fine, I get why you disagree.

i agree with this sentiment except for the fact that so many americans are dipshits...as evidenced by the crowding seen at both parks and beaches over just the past few days

i can’t trust the average citizen to do the right, reasonable, or logical thing

Particularly when, at the end of the day, the only reliable way to keep yourself from becoming a vector (and possibly getting quite sick) is to minimize contact.

We can't all stay home forever. But those who can, should, for at least a good while longer. I also fear that this whole "reopening the economy" thing is a whole lot of false hope, because customers/diners/theatergoers etc. are still, you know, not going to fucking want to be in crowded places.

Problem being, everyone has caught on to the "at least a little while longer" game. Every time the next two-week or thirty day extension is about to end, they tack on another one "out of an abundance of caution," which is code for "the economy hasn't quite flatlined yet". People are calling BS and there is going to be more and more civil unrest until things are loosened.

[CrimsonNBlue]

I'll take things that aren't happening for $1000 Alex.

Kansas and Missouri are opening up sooner than planned. Sooner than health officials think is safe.

[HouseDivided]

This dude gets it:

https://www.thekansan.com/opinion/20200 ... 9-strategy

In the April 23 paper, we had an editorial cartoon of Pandora’s Box with a key on the floor, labeled “Reopening Soon.” And then CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield warned that a second COVID wave in the fall may be worse than the first.

Protests against the lockdown are a preview of the coming class/generational warfare we’re facing as governors struggle to find the political balance between the tragedy of job loss and fear of COVID-19. Everyone working with this mysterious new virus is missing important puzzle pieces, awaiting future research.

In general comparison to influenza, which itself varies widely from year to year, COVID is maybe twice as dangerous (death rate of 0.2% instead of 0.1%), and three times as likely to have no symptoms at all (60% to 20%). Nobody has any immunity from past infection or vaccination.

Throw in the lack of testing for infection or recovery, and you can see why this pandemic is a nightmare for the health care system.

How do our yearly epidemics end? With influenza, “herd immunity” develops when 50%-60% of the population is protected by immunization, cross-immunity from past epidemics, or recovery from infection. COVID will resolve itself when we achieve herd immunity, find an effective treatment, or develop and distribute a vaccine.

The current strategy is to “flatten the curve” of infection to avoid overwhelming our ICUs, then play quarantine whack-a-mole as adequate testing allows teams of public health workers to identify cells of infection.

The Achilles heel of this approach is that herd immunity will not develop. The hope is to simply hold the line until we get a vaccine. The problem is that it took five years to develop an Ebola vaccine, and only time will tell with COVID.

If, as emerging data seems to indicate, the true death rate for infected individuals turns out to be closer to 0.2% than 2%, and CDC statistics continue to show that 7% of deaths occur in the under-55 age group, the risk of death in that group will approximate 1.4 per 10,000.

Furthermore, since it only takes infection in 60% of the population to achieve herd immunity, that rate drops to 1 in 10,000. If we have 100,000 citizens in Shawnee County under age 55, that’s just 10 deaths.

At that point it becomes clear that the Swedish strategy, perhaps with more aggressive isolation of older, sicker, unemployed citizens, would have allowed the economy to pretty much go on as usual. And we still would have had March Madness to amuse ourselves as we practiced modest social isolation to “flatten the curve” of hospital admissions.

This hypothetical scenario, now past, makes the current “debate” about re-opening the economy look pretty silly. Just admit we made a mistake, with inadequate information and the best of intentions, isolate the high-risk population until herd immunity emerges, and let people go back to work.

Admitting honest mistakes is admirable and defensible, although difficult for politicians.

Under the present strategy, COVID will do an encore in August. Are we again going to close schools, restaurants, theaters and sports events?

As the economy opens up in the next month or two, it’s time for a discussion about our COVID strategy. There are well-respected epidemiologists who think rolling lockdowns are not the answer. In military terms, no strategy survives first contact with the enemy.

Let’s re-evaluate the battle plan.

Doug Iliff, MD, FAAFP, has been a family physician in Topeka for 34 years.

[ousdahl]

Just went to the store for my weekly-ish grocery run.

Still no TP. Why? People still hoarding? Hangup in the supply chain?

I did get rubbing alcohol though! The first time it’s been in stock, and still one of the last bottles on the shelf.

And while a majority of shoppers had masks, it is kinda silly how many folks don’t have them covering their mouth or nose, take them off anyway, play with it or rub their face or otherwise defeat the whole purpose of wearing it.

[Geezer]

Over a million cases and 58,000 dead

[Shirley]

Over a million cases and 58,000 dead

In the blink of an eye, it will have killed more Americans, 58,220, than died in the Vietnam War in 20 years, from 1955 to 1975.

Very sad.

[HouseDivided]

Over a million cases and 58,000 dead

In the blink of an eye, it will have killed more Americans, 58,220, than died in the Vietnam War in 20 years, from 1955 to 1975.

Very sad.

No tears for the ~55,000 Americans who die of the regular flu every year, though? I'm guessing the number of suicides in the U.S. this year will be well above the normal 47,000 as well.

[zsn]

Over a million cases and 58,000 dead

In the blink of an eye, it will have killed more Americans, 58,220, than died in the Vietnam War in 20 years, from 1955 to 1975.

Very sad.

Naa...aaah. The flu kills more people. Cars kill more people.......

Post-post edit: I was being sarcastic; looks like Psych is not

[Deleted User 89]

is there a "Dr." Phil in here?

[Shirley]

Over a million cases and 58,000 dead

In the blink of an eye, it will have killed more Americans, 58,220, than died in the Vietnam War in 20 years, from 1955 to 1975.

Very sad.

No tears for the ~55,000 Americans who die of the regular flu every year, though? I'm guessing the number of suicides in the U.S. this year will be well above the normal 47,000 as well.

According to the CDC, from 2010 - 2019, the average number of deaths due to influenza was ~ 42,500/year. Also, that's per year.

Using the revised, (to almost 3 weeks earlier than thought before), date of February 6th as the first day a person in the US died of COVID-19, we've already had > 58,000 deaths in less than 90 days, ¼ of the time.

See any difference?

[HouseDivided]

Over a million cases and 58,000 dead

In the blink of an eye, it will have killed more Americans, 58,220, than died in the Vietnam War in 20 years, from 1955 to 1975.

Very sad.

Naa...aaah. The flu kills more people. Cars kill more people.......

Post-post edit: I was being sarcastic; looks like Psych is not

I wasn't implying more - I was implying that significant numbers of people die for a variety of preventable reasons every year. We have just chosen to crap our pants about a particular one for some reason.

[HouseDivided]

In the blink of an eye, it will have killed more Americans, 58,220, than died in the Vietnam War in 20 years, from 1955 to 1975.

Very sad.

No tears for the ~55,000 Americans who die of the regular flu every year, though? I'm guessing the number of suicides in the U.S. this year will be well above the normal 47,000 as well.

According to the CDC, from 2010 - 2019, the average number of deaths due to influenza was ~ 42,500/year. Also, that's per year.

Using the revised, (to almost 3 weeks earlier than thought before), date of February 6th as the first day a person in the US died of COVID-19, we've already had > 58,000 deaths in less than 90 days, ¼ of the time.

See any difference?

I'm still waiting for the numbers where dying OF Covid and dying WITH covid are separated out.

[Shirley]

No tears for the ~55,000 Americans who die of the regular flu every year, though? I'm guessing the number of suicides in the U.S. this year will be well above the normal 47,000 as well.

According to the CDC, from 2010 - 2019, the average number of deaths due to influenza was ~ 42,500/year. Also, that's per year.

Using the revised, (to almost 3 weeks earlier than thought before), date of February 6th as the first day a person in the US died of COVID-19, we've already had > 58,000 deaths in less than 90 days, ¼ of the time.

See any difference?

I'm still waiting for the numbers where dying OF Covid and dying WITH covid are separated out.

Here is an article and video I posted to the Petri dish thread earlier that will help you in the meantime, since an accurate estimate probably won't be available for at least 2 or 3 years.


U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic, far exceeding number attributed to covid-19
An analysis of federal data for the first time estimates excess deaths -- the number beyond what would normally be expected -- during that period.

...

The analysis suggests that the deaths announced in the weeks leading up to April 4, based on reports from state public health departments, failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic. Those incomplete numbers were widely cited at a time when many states were making critical decisions about closing businesses and taking other actions to stem the spread of the virus.

The analysis also suggests that the death toll from the pandemic is significantly higher than has been reported, said Daniel Weinberger, a Yale professor of epidemiology and the leader of the research team. As of Sunday, more than 54,000 people had been killed by the novel coronavirus, according to numbers reported by state health departments and compiled by The Post.

[...]

[Deleted User 310]

I think any impact the dying "with" covid but not of covid would be more than offset by the situation referenced in ferals article...the early antibody tests in Cali and NY seem to support that idea since higher than expected % of people are testing positive for having antibodies in the samples they've done so far.

[sdoyel]

Local Dallas restaurants react to Gov. Abbott’s decision to open Texas by Phase in May 1:

https://www.dallasnews.com/food/restaur ... -pandemic/

[HouseDivided]

According to the CDC, from 2010 - 2019, the average number of deaths due to influenza was ~ 42,500/year. Also, that's per year.

Using the revised, (to almost 3 weeks earlier than thought before), date of February 6th as the first day a person in the US died of COVID-19, we've already had > 58,000 deaths in less than 90 days, ¼ of the time.

See any difference?

I'm still waiting for the numbers where dying OF Covid and dying WITH covid are separated out.

Here is an article and video I posted to the Petri dish thread earlier that will help you in the meantime, since an accurate estimate probably won't be available for at least 2 or 3 years.


U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic, far exceeding number attributed to covid-19
An analysis of federal data for the first time estimates excess deaths -- the number beyond what would normally be expected -- during that period.

...

The analysis suggests that the deaths announced in the weeks leading up to April 4, based on reports from state public health departments, failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic. Those incomplete numbers were widely cited at a time when many states were making critical decisions about closing businesses and taking other actions to stem the spread of the virus.

The analysis also suggests that the death toll from the pandemic is significantly higher than has been reported, said Daniel Weinberger, a Yale professor of epidemiology and the leader of the research team. As of Sunday, more than 54,000 people had been killed by the novel coronavirus, according to numbers reported by state health departments and compiled by The Post.

[...]

Again, OF and WITH are two very different propositions, especially considering the fact that the vast majority carrying the virus are asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic. I have a friend who is a mortician and another who is a physician, both of whom told me they were instructed to cite cause of death as COVID-19 regardless of whether the person died of it or with it. A person with terminal cancer died of cancer, not COVID-19. A person who coded after a heart attack died of a heart attack, not COVID-19. The accounting, as I have said from the beginning, is suspect.

[HouseDivided]

Local Dallas restaurants react to Gov. Abbott’s decision to open Texas by Phase in May 1:

https://www.dallasnews.com/food/restaur ... -pandemic/

Sounds like the primary objection is that it isn't profitable to open at 25% capacity, not that it is unsafe. My guess is that their tune will change when they have people lined up for hours to sit in that 25% seating capacity.