Where's the petri dish thread?

[Deleted User 289]

Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they have been wrong almost every step of the way. As they have been predicting Worse case scenario the whole time. I’m glad they are wrong almost all the time.

MIchhawk, do you remember that this is a "new" virus, one that's related to viruses we know, but with properties that we can't begin to know, because it appears we've never seen it before?

The models that the "the elites" have been trying to construct in order to attempt to make predictions, predictions we're all eager for, are full of variables, unknown variables, when the pandemic started. Here's a partial list:
Transmission:

How is it spread?
Is it spread by asymptomatic people?
Is it spread by blood?
Aerosol?
Saliva?
Semen?
Fecal to oral?
Cough?
Sneeze?
Regular conversation?
Inanimate objects?
How long does it live on those objects?
What's the incubation period? How in the world can you give people efficacious advice if we don't know the time between exposure to the virus and when you become infectious?

And here's a variable for you: How compliant will over 300 million people in the US be with the public health recommendations? Because this variable has everything to do with the rate of transmission.

etc.

Right. And now, thanks to elitist assholes, we have the answers to many if these questions.

The big questions are things like the last one.

Right!
As I have been saying on multiple threads, too many Americans tend to not give a fuck about laws/rules/guidelines.
Chinese people > American people in that regard.
So, maybe it's not as far fetched as people would like to believe it is - in terms of the miraculously low numbers in China that are being reported.
Don't get me wrong, I doubt them but I'm also not so quick to dismiss them either.

[PhDhawk]

In a world of 7 billion people this is still pretty insignificant.

Asshole

[Geezer]

On Feb. 8?

[DCHawk1]

On Feb. 8?

Since the day you were born.

[seahawk]

Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they have been wrong almost every step of the way. As they have been predicting Worse case scenario the whole time. I’m glad they are wrong almost all the time.

MIchhawk, do you remember that this is a "new" virus, one that's related to viruses we know, but with properties that we can't begin to know, because it appears we've never seen it before?

The models that the "the elites" have been trying to construct in order to attempt to make predictions, predictions we're all eager for, are full of variables, unknown variables, when the pandemic started. Here's a partial list:
Transmission:

How is it spread?
Is it spread by asymptomatic people?
Is it spread by blood?
Aerosol?
Saliva?
Semen?
Fecal to oral?
Cough?
Sneeze?
Regular conversation?
Inanimate objects?
How long does it live on those objects?
What's the incubation period? How in the world can you give people efficacious advice if we don't know the time between exposure to the virus and when you become infectious?

And here's a variable for you: How compliant will over 300 million people in the US be with the public health recommendations? Because this variable has everything to do with the rate of transmission.

etc.

Went to the grocery store this morning and there were University of Alabama college age kids with no masks parading through the store as only Bama people can. The store is doing everything possible to keep people safe, but that didn't seem to matter to any of these folks. Given that short term rentals are banned both statewide and in my county, someone is breaking the rules.

[Geezer]

[jfish26]

The bad faith is just bottomless.

[Shirley]

Today In: "Must See TV, Tomorrow!

Thursday May 14, 10:00 AM ET, C-Span, (and probably others).



Written Testimony House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Health Scientific Integrity in the COVID-19 Response

Statement of Rick Bright, Ph.D

...I am Dr. Rick Bright, a career public servant and a scientist who has spent 25 years of my career focused on addressing pandemic outbreaks. I received my bachelor’s degree with honors in both biology and physical sciences from Auburn University at Montgomery in Alabama. I earned my PhD in Immunology and Molecular Pathogenesis from Emory University in Georgia My dissertation was focused on pandemic avian influenza. I have spent my entire career leading teams of scientists in drugs, diagnostics and vaccine development -- in the government with CDC and BARDA, for a global non-profit organization and also in the biotechnology industry...

On April 21, 2020, I was removed from my positions as the Director of BARDA and HHS Deputy Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response by HHS leadership and involuntarily transferred to a more limited and less impactful position at the National Institutes of Health. I believe this transfer was in response to my insistence that the government invest funding allocated to BARDA by Congress to address the COVID-19 pandemic into safe and scientifically vetted solutions, and not in drugs, vaccines and other technologies that lack scientific merit. While my intention in testifying today is to be forward looking, I spoke out then and I am testifying today because science – not politics or cronyism – must lead the way to combat this deadly virus.

...Our window of opportunity is closing. If we fail to develop a national coordinated response, based in science, I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illness and fatalities. While it is terrifying to acknowledge the extent of the challenge that we currently confront, the undeniable fact is there will be a resurgence of the COVID19 this fall, greatly compounding the challenges of seasonal influenza and putting an unprecedented strain on our health care system. Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history.

First and foremost, we need to be truthful with the American people. They want the truth. They can handle the truth. Truth, no matter how unpleasant, decreases the fear generated by uncertainty. The truth must be based on scientific evidence – and not filtered for political reasons. We must know and appreciate what we are up against. We have the world’s greatest scientists – they must be permitted to lead. Let them speak truthfully without fear of retribution. We must listen so that the government can then take the most powerful steps to save lives.

Most Americans want the same thing – a return to normal. The normal of 2019 is not going to return, but we all have an opportunity to shape the new normal of 2020 and beyond. With the participation and cooperation of every American, this can be achieved. We have a long history of uniting in response to adversity. Each of us can and must do our part now. However, it is critical to get this right. As my colleague Dr. Anthony Fauci testified on June 12, 2020, we must not rush blindly, or act too quickly, in returning to our daily lives. If we ignore the science, we stand a dramatically increased risk of worsening the spread of the virus in the coming months. This could lead to more widespread outbreaks and to many more lives lost throughout the remainder of this year.

To do our part, we need to hear one message in a voice that is clear, consistent, trustworthy, and backed by the best science available. In previous outbreaks, Americans listened to our public health experts at the CDC. They were the daily face and the voice guiding Americans during prior outbreaks including Ebola, Zika, and the H1N1 influenza pandemic. As an example, in 2009, the CDC, along with Elmo, taught Americans how to sneeze in a way that minimizes risk of contagion. Today, we need clear and simple messages to teach us how wear a face cover, when and how to safely go outside or back to work or back to school. It’s that simple.

[...]

[Deleted User 89]

if only it were that simple

[PhDhawk]

PhD? GTFO with that elitist nonsense.

[Shirley]

We don’t have a president, or a plan. 60 days into the coronavirus crisis, the White House does not have a plan, a framework, a philosophy, or a goal.

Here’s the truth: Lockdown is economically ruinous, and America can’t sustain it from now until a vaccine. And you don’t have to take it from me. “You can’t be in lockdown for 18 months,” says Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. “We’ll destroy society as we know it, and we don’t know what we’ll accomplish with it.”

But this is also the truth: Reopening without a way to control the coronavirus will be lethal to both human life and economic growth, as an escalating death toll will force states back into lockdown. “We can’t just let the virus go,” Osterholm says. “Lots of people will die and it’ll shut down our health system, not just for Covid patients, but for anyone with a health problem.

“What we need,” he continues, “is a plan.”

It is shocking. More than 60 days after President Trump declared a national emergency over the novel coronavirus, there is still no clear national plan for what comes next. “The lockdown is not meant to be a permanent state of affairs; it’s intended to be a giant pause button that buys you time to get ready for the next phase,” Jeremy Konyndyk, of the Center for Global Development think tank, says.

But the Trump administration wasted the pause. Over the past two months, the US should have built the testing, contact tracing, and quarantine infrastructure necessary to safely end lockdown and transition back to normalcy — as many of its peer countries did. Instead, Trump has substituted showmanship for action, playing the president on TV but refusing to do the actual job. He has both dominated the airwaves and abdicated his duties. As a result, America’s progress against the coronavirus has stalled, even as the lockdown has driven the economy into crisis.


I am more sympathetic than some to the protesters, and others, who want to see states reopen, who believe the cost of lockdown overwhelms the apparent benefits. The economic agony is real, and they have been given no way to imagine its end, no clear understanding of the purpose behind their sacrifice. But the awful choice they feel we face — between endless lockdown or reckless reopening — needs to be understood for what it is: the failure of our political leaders to create a safer, middle path.

“What we want to avoid in the reopening process is creating the conditions that led to us having to stay home in the first place,” writes Caitlin Rivers of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. That was the Trump administration’s job — either they needed to do it or they needed to support and empower the states to do it.

They have failed. It is the most profound and complete failure of presidential leadership in modern history.

[...]

[seahawk]

Trump is still doing a Reality TV Show presidency and can't go forward into anything else, even when the crisis calls for it. You can see the contrast every day with Gov. Cuomo's daily reports as you see leadership in action and plans for action. It's interesting how many New Yorkers say they didn't much like Cuomo before, but have been surprised and impressed at how he has stepped up and demonstrated what leadership looks like.

[sdoyel]

Great read.

We don’t have a president, or a plan. 60 days into the coronavirus crisis, the White House does not have a plan, a framework, a philosophy, or a goal.

Here’s the truth: Lockdown is economically ruinous, and America can’t sustain it from now until a vaccine. And you don’t have to take it from me. “You can’t be in lockdown for 18 months,” says Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. “We’ll destroy society as we know it, and we don’t know what we’ll accomplish with it.”

But this is also the truth: Reopening without a way to control the coronavirus will be lethal to both human life and economic growth, as an escalating death toll will force states back into lockdown. “We can’t just let the virus go,” Osterholm says. “Lots of people will die and it’ll shut down our health system, not just for Covid patients, but for anyone with a health problem.

“What we need,” he continues, “is a plan.”

It is shocking. More than 60 days after President Trump declared a national emergency over the novel coronavirus, there is still no clear national plan for what comes next. “The lockdown is not meant to be a permanent state of affairs; it’s intended to be a giant pause button that buys you time to get ready for the next phase,” Jeremy Konyndyk, of the Center for Global Development think tank, says.

But the Trump administration wasted the pause. Over the past two months, the US should have built the testing, contact tracing, and quarantine infrastructure necessary to safely end lockdown and transition back to normalcy — as many of its peer countries did. Instead, Trump has substituted showmanship for action, playing the president on TV but refusing to do the actual job. He has both dominated the airwaves and abdicated his duties. As a result, America’s progress against the coronavirus has stalled, even as the lockdown has driven the economy into crisis.


I am more sympathetic than some to the protesters, and others, who want to see states reopen, who believe the cost of lockdown overwhelms the apparent benefits. The economic agony is real, and they have been given no way to imagine its end, no clear understanding of the purpose behind their sacrifice. But the awful choice they feel we face — between endless lockdown or reckless reopening — needs to be understood for what it is: the failure of our political leaders to create a safer, middle path.

“What we want to avoid in the reopening process is creating the conditions that led to us having to stay home in the first place,” writes Caitlin Rivers of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. That was the Trump administration’s job — either they needed to do it or they needed to support and empower the states to do it.

They have failed. It is the most profound and complete failure of presidential leadership in modern history.

[...]

[DCHawk1]

Nothing quite as much fun a libertarian tweeting stories about how the gummint lacks a master plan.

[DCHawk1]

if only it were that simple

Scientism.

[seahawk]

We don’t have a president, or a plan. 60 days into the coronavirus crisis, the White House does not have a plan, a framework, a philosophy, or a goal.

Forget a plan. There isn’t even a goal.

It is, in truth, incoherence all the way down. And I do mean all the way.

As my colleague Matthew Yglesias has argued, the White House — and thus the country — has not even chosen a goal. The Trump administration has never decided whether the aim is “mitigation,” in which we slow the virus’s spread so the health system doesn’t get overwhelmed, or “suppression,” in which we try to eradicate the virus so as to save lives. It is possible, as Thomas Friedman writes, that the US is actually pursuing neither goal; instead, officials are following Sweden’s laissez-faire approach to the virus, and Trump “just hasn’t told the country or his coronavirus task force or maybe even himself.”

This, then, is the state of things: The White House does not have a plan, it does not have a framework, it does not have a philosophy, and it does not have a goal. That is not because these things are impossible. At this point, there are dozens of plans floating around and dozens of governments offering models it could choose from. Germany’s response has been a success, and I’m sure officials would share the lessons they’ve learned. In South Korea, professional baseball is restarting, and in Taiwan, there have been about a dozen new Covid-19 cases in the month of May so far.

It is not that the president is doing the wrong thing — he is doing basically nothing. But he has combined a substantive passivity with a showman’s desire to dominate the narrative and a political street fighter’s obsession with settling scores, so he is making the job of governors and mayors harder, neither giving them what they need to beat the virus nor leaving them to make their own decisions free from his interference and criticism.


They have failed. It is the most profound and complete failure of presidential leadership in modern history.

[...]

[Deleted User 89]

http://m.nautil.us/issue/84/outbreak/wh ... -happening

[Shirley]

Today In: smfh, or, the plural of anecdote (still) isn't data.

an·ec·do·tal

/ˌanəkˈdōdl/
adjective

(of an account) not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research.

"while there was much anecdotal evidence there was little hard fact"

Imagine you have the credentials and everything to offer that Dr. Bright does, and a physician/member of congress confronts you with this:

[DCHawk1]

Today In: smfh, or, the plural of anecdote (still) isn't data.

an·ec·do·tal

/ˌanəkˈdōdl/
adjective

(of an account) not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research.

"while there was much anecdotal evidence there was little hard fact"

Imagine you have the credentials and everything to offer that Dr. Bright does, and a physician/member of congress confronts you with this:

In seriousness, not trying to be a wiseass. What do call "evidence" gathered through observational rather than experimental studies?

[ousdahl]

Bright paints a gloomy picture of a possible future unless the Trump administration responds more quickly and more strongly to the coronavirus.

"It is painfully clear that we were not as prepared as we should have been," Bright says in his prepared remarks. "We missed early warning signals and we forgot important pages from our pandemic playbook."

"Our window of opportunity is closing," Bright warns. "If we fail to develop a national coordinated response, based in science, I fear the pandemic will get far worse and be prolonged, causing unprecedented illness and fatalities."

"The undeniable fact is there will be a resurgence of the COVID-19 this fall, greatly compounding the challenges of seasonal influenza and putting an unprecedented strain on our health care system," he adds. "Without clear planning and implementation of the steps that I and other experts have outlined, 2020 will be darkest winter in modern history."

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/14/85525461 ... is-closing