Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

[Deleted User 62]

My bad, it was Riverside where this happened. Not Palm Springs.

Question for Jeep: If you don't believe a serious correction is coming, why not buy another condo in Palm Springs, right? You and I both know you are not going to do that because it would be unwise.

I would 100% buy another Colorado condo right now if I had the money.

It would be stupid to buy in Palm Springs right now.

Just fucking stop.

[Walrus]

And realtors told us in 2007 it was a "great time to buy..." But you know, our agent friend has told us that "prices will crash in 2021", but he's an honest guy.

You didn't answer my question: Why did you sell now if you thought prices would appreciate in Palm Springs? Why did you lower your asking price if you thought they would appreciate?

[Deleted User 62]

And realtors told us in 2007 it was a "great time to buy..." But you know, our agent friend has told us that "prices will crash in 2021", but he's an honest guy.

You didn't answer my question: Why did you sell now if you thought prices would appreciate in Palm Springs? Why did you lower your asking price if you thought they would appreciate?

You seriously are way in over your head with this discussion.

[Walrus]

You didn't answer my question, again.

[Walrus]

Okay, let's make a bet:

If home and condo prices are higher in Palm Springs in 2021 (August), I will promise to "shut up" and ban my account.

If home and condo prices are lower in Palm Springs in 2021 (August), will you do the same?

[Deleted User 62]

You didn't answer my question: Why did you sell now if you thought prices would appreciate in Palm Springs? Why did you lower your asking price if you thought they would appreciate?

I will answer your questions, but my answers are just going to make your ignorance more evident.

We sold NOW because we realized that living in a country club really isn't in our long term plans. I don't golf, so the $680 monthly HOA fees added nothing of value for us. We love the beauty of the facility and the amazing lladscaping.

My wife and I are explorers, overlanders. Living a little bit farther into the desert makes more sense as both a starting point for our adventures as well as room for a large shop building.

We would like to stay within an hour drive of Palm Springs, as it is our favorite city.

I will try to help you understand listing prices.
We started our listing at a higher price for 2 reasons. You throw it out there, and you might just find someone with a desire for just what you are selling. Our plan was to list it higher for 30 days, and if it hadn't sold to drop it down into the range that a finance buyer could get a loan. Also, listings get another lead out when a price is reduced.

In the end, we got exactly what we wanted, a home away from home that would turn a great profit...which it did.

Just like our past 7 properties.

Does that help?

[Deleted User 62]

Okay, let's make a bet:

If home and condo prices are higher in Palm Springs in 2021 (August), I will promise to "shut up" and ban my account.

If home and condo prices are lower in Palm Springs in 2021 (August), will you do the same?

You have made similar bets in the past. You don't have much of a back record.

[Walrus]

Okay, let's make a bet:

If home and condo prices are higher in Palm Springs in 2021 (August), I will promise to "shut up" and ban my account.

If home and condo prices are lower in Palm Springs in 2021 (August), will you do the same?

You have made similar bets in the past. You don't have much of a back record.

Show me where I said something like this before.

I know you won't take the bet because you know home prices in California are going down in the near future. They are already going down right now.

[Deleted User 62]

Dumbass.

Prices can go up and down in California.
Spots like Palm Springs are pretty well insulated from significant drops.

[Walrus]

Make the bet if you're so sure.

[Deleted User 62]

Make the bet if you're so sure.

Done.

[Cascadia]

GOD DAMNIT, what about Zorp!?!?!

[chiknbut]

Make the bet if you're so sure.

Done.

Just be prepared. Walrus won't own up to this.

[jhawks99]

Didn't Jeep tell us all to quit feeding the troll?

[Walrus]

Make the bet if you're so sure.

Done.

Just be prepared. Walrus won't own up to this.

Everyone can see it here. It's in digital print and cannot be edited. We will revisit this thread next July and it should be interesting.

[Deleted User 310]

How are you planning on determining something like that?

[Walrus]

It's possible to look up the average home/condo price in Palm Springs. I'll look up the projected sale value of Jeep's condo and also the average of the entire PS area.

It's almost impossible for prices to be higher next summer. You have to consider that forbearance will not last forever and many will not have jobs to return to, creating waves of foreclosures. Even some of the most trusted real estate publications are predicting 6-7% decline in LA and the surrounding area. Las Vegas is expected to drop 20% by one source.

[PhDhawk]

Also, don't tug on superman's cape, don't spit into the wind, don't pull the mask off that old lone ranger, and don't mess around with Jim

[Deleted User 310]

It's possible to look up the average home/condo price in Palm Springs. I'll look up the projected sale value of Jeep's condo and also the average of the entire PS area.

It is hard to trust many of those free resources was my main issue. They are historically somewhat inaccurate and are just averages and dont typically account for the quality of properties selling. Basically just add up the sales prices and divide by the # of sales.

I do property valuations for a living for a bank and we pay to subscribe to local MLS type associations that track data provided by realtors in a more useful way (grouped by property quality or difined smaller areas) and/or pay for market analysis by appraisers in many of our markets (those are typically for multifamily type properties in some of our larger markets with universities).

What i see in the markets i work in around central IL are houses in the $500k+ range have fallen over the last few years...but houses in the $250k-$500k seem to be holding somewhat steady...it also seems a sweet spot, at least in my specific area is that the $150k-$225k-ish range are sort of increasing still....we bought our house several years ago for $200k and i am confident it would sell for $230k-ish today and we have only put maybe $10k into it since purchase (new flooring, a new patio, and some new appliances).

Just my 2 cents. Granted I am in central IL which is far different than the places Plano owns property. The main issue in IL is population decline leaving to bordering states which may be a cause for the higher priced homes declining a bit since those are the types of people better positioned financially to be able to pick up and move.

[Walrus]

You're right that a lot of free online sources will be dishonest about what is really going on. Fortunately, there are other ways to find out what is really going on. To make things even more complicated, there are crosscurrents that are affecting the residential real estate market.

Illinois is likely to be a state where we will see massive exodus from over the next few years. Like California, they have massive taxes, which are likely to go up even more when people run. Same for California, which had been already seeing mass exodus even before covid. People will run to safer states with lower taxes, especially if they can work at home. However, because of this, many homes in those rural areas and small communities could go up. Not anything like what we've seen in California, but they could rise as demand goes up.

On the other side of the coin, the expensive cyclical markets like Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Fran, Denver, Seattle -- those are going to drop anywhere from 30-60% by 2024. It will most likely be gradual and not overnight. I saw numerous buyers back out of sales this summer and spring, and some sellers pulled their homes off the market (unwise). The only reason homes have not come down dramatically is because for the temporary forbearance. Once that's gone, inventory will rise, just like it did in 2008/09. Those vacation rentals used for AirBnB are mostly going to be toast. To make things worse, lots of boomers are too old to continue working and will be looking to sell their homes to move to cheaper locations. The problem is, the potential buyers are millennials. Banks are already requiring 20% down and a good credit score because they are preparing for the defaults. But again, this only relates to the cyclical markets. The government doesn't want home prices to fall because they lose millions in tax revenue. But they couldn't stop it last time and they will fail again. You cannot print your way out of a bubble that has exploded.