who ya got?

[Deleted User 289]

[Deleted User 318]

Not that ratings mean much, but:

https://politicalwire.com/2020/09/30/de ... from-2016/

“Certain to change in the final numbers and as more outlets are added, the first round of ratings on the first of the three debates set between Trump and Biden were down double digits from four years ago. In fast-affiliate results, last night’s 9-10:30 PM ET slugfest was watched live by an audience of 27.3 million on ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox. Among adults 18-49, the often cringe-inducing event snared a combined 7.1 rating.”

“Total to total, that’s a drop of 36% from what Trump vs. Clinton drew on September 26, 2016 among the four networks.”

I wonder if people just turned it off after 5 minutes, or if people just had no interest in watching that train wreck. I think both are good things for Biden (Pro-Trump people would've stuck around and enjoyed whatever that was, and people not turning in probably just want change instead of status quo).

[zsn]

I think the biggest thing on display was Trump’s inability to listen and not be the center of attention for two minutes.

Narcissistic behavior under the spotlight

[Deleted User 318]

Off debates, been watching Alaska a bit since August. The limited polling coming out of there is really interesting. A not so outside chance of a senate seat and/or Biden win there. I don't think it's going to happen, but one small slip up to lose 2 points by either could turn that state Blue. If Trump/Senate loses Alaska, it's going to be a long night anyway for the GOP, but there has been an interesting trend towards Dems last year or so.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... al/alaska/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... te/alaska/

Also, having Sullivan leave the state to go to DC to deal with ACB would be poetic justice for Mitch's shenanigans.

[jfish26]

Off debates, been watching Alaska a bit since August. The limited polling coming out of there is really interesting. A not so outside chance of a senate seat and/or Biden win there. I don't think it's going to happen, but one small slip up to lose 2 points by either could turn that state Blue. If Trump/Senate loses Alaska, it's going to be a long night anyway for the GOP, but there has been an interesting trend towards Dems last year or so.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... al/alaska/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... te/alaska/

Also, having Sullivan leave the state to go to DC to deal with ACB would be poetic justice for Mitch's shenanigans.

And mathematically tied in South Carolina:



I'm telling you - if anything, the surprise will be some previously-unthinkable states being in play for the Dems.

Ones that the GOP machinery hasn't even thought to rig.

[Deleted User 318]

As we discussed on the other board, I don't think there's as much of a chance in SC. There's also a lot of focus on SC. AK is one of those states, like Minn in 2016, that is trending one way, but no one is really talking about it.

[twocoach]

As we discussed on the other board, I don't think there's as much of a chance in SC. There's also a lot of focus on SC. AK is one of those states, like Minn in 2016, that is trending one way, but no one is really talking about it.

I am hoping that my one little electoral vote here in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District flips to Biden this year. They have tried to push it more Republican in 2011 by moving the heavily minority suburb of Bellevue out of District 2 and into the more rural District 1 and adding the more Republican southern suburbs of Sarpy County but even that may not be enough to keep District 2 for Trump.

[Deleted User 318]

As we discussed on the other board, I don't think there's as much of a chance in SC. There's also a lot of focus on SC. AK is one of those states, like Minn in 2016, that is trending one way, but no one is really talking about it.

Iam hoping that my one little electoral vote here in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District flips to Biden this year.

Based on polling in Nebraska's second, looks to be trending pretty heavily Biden's way.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ebraska-2/

[twocoach]

As we discussed on the other board, I don't think there's as much of a chance in SC. There's also a lot of focus on SC. AK is one of those states, like Minn in 2016, that is trending one way, but no one is really talking about it.

Iam hoping that my one little electoral vote here in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District flips to Biden this year.

Based on polling in Nebraska's second, looks to be trending pretty heavily Biden's way.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ebraska-2/

Interesting. It would be just the 2nd time since some time back in the 60s that the District went Dem in the Presidential election were it to happen. Early voting opens next Monday, October 5th. I will be going over lunch some time next week to vote in person.

[Deleted User 89]

according to polls at RealClearPolitics and 538, Biden came out ahead after last night

both sites indicate several 10ths of a percentage point bump

[Deleted User 310]

(the guy doing sign language)

[Leawood]

Have you ever spoken in public? People often draw a blank. Years go, during a closing argument, I couldn’t find a word. A juror kindly in a soft voice prompted me. And then I was on my way. If you are authentic, people want to help you.

[Deleted User 318]

Have you ever spoken in public? People often draw a blank. Years go, during a closing argument, I couldn’t find a word. A juror kindly in a soft voice prompted me. And then I was on my way. If you are authentic, people want to help you.

Did you win the case?

[Deleted User 310]

Have you ever spoken in public? People often draw a blank. Years go, during a closing argument, I couldn’t find a word. A juror kindly in a soft voice prompted me. And then I was on my way. If you are authentic, people want to help you.

I avoid it at all costs.

He does better than i ever could. But the sign language guy cracked me up.

[Deleted User 289]

[Leawood]

I think so. I remember all my losses. I don’t remember the specific case in which the juror helped me.

[twocoach]

Off debates, been watching Alaska a bit since August. The limited polling coming out of there is really interesting. A not so outside chance of a senate seat and/or Biden win there. I don't think it's going to happen, but one small slip up to lose 2 points by either could turn that state Blue. If Trump/Senate loses Alaska, it's going to be a long night anyway for the GOP, but there has been an interesting trend towards Dems last year or so.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... al/alaska/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... te/alaska/

Also, having Sullivan leave the state to go to DC to deal with ACB would be poetic justice for Mitch's shenanigans.

Interesting stuff. I always find it fascinating to imagine what it would be like to live somewhere like Alaska. Such a unique combination of residents. I dont know much at all about their political history and tendencies. (Mental note -add to my "random shit to research")

I am curious as to what caused that rather significant separation in favor of Trump in late July. Maybe it's just a data correction, I dont know. Shit like this is fascinating to me right now. It's like off-season roster building for a sports team.

[Walrus]

After re-watching a few parts of the debate again, I think Biden won simply because he did not look as bad as Trump. The expectations we so low that all people really hoped for was a Biden that could speak and not lose his train of thought. Trump did say some good things that were very accurate, but his demeanor turned a lot of people off. He was right on about law enforcement and the riots. He made some dumb mistakes when he would not address his taxes head on. He should have just said "yeah, I paid $750 because of my depreciating real estate, etc..." Instead, he dodges it. Biden also wouldn't answer questions about the supreme court, new green deal, etc. But all in all, Biden did come off a little better, simply because Trump looked too aggressive. The moderator also did a poor job. They need a mute button on the mic, for sure.

But does this really change anything? I doubt it. I still think Trump is going to win, simply because there just isn't any enthusiasm for Biden. Michael Moore recently said, "there's a lot of enthusiasm for Trump". Either way, we lose, but Biden's tax proposals would turn this severe recession into a severe depression.

[jfish26]

No, they wouldn’t.

[twocoach]

After re-watching a few parts of the debate again, I think Biden won simply because he did not look as bad as Trump. The expectations we so low that all people really hoped for was a Biden that could speak and not lose his train of thought. Trump did say some good things that were very accurate, but his demeanor turned a lot of people off. He was right on about law enforcement and the riots. He made some dumb mistakes when he would not address his taxes head on. He should have just said "yeah, I paid $750 because of my depreciating real estate, etc..." Instead, he dodges it. Biden also wouldn't answer questions about the supreme court, new green deal, etc. But all in all, Biden did come off a little better, simply because Trump looked too aggressive. The moderator also did a poor job. They need a mute button on the mic, for sure.

But does this really change anything? I doubt it. I still think Trump is going to win, simply because there just isn't any enthusiasm for Biden. Michael Moore recently said, "there's a lot of enthusiasm for Trump". Either way, we lose, but Biden's tax proposals would turn this severe recession into a severe depression.

Not sure what you base your "there just isn't any enthusiasm for Biden" comment on. The enthusiasm to remove this piece of shit Trump from office is "enthusiasm for Biden". I think we're going to see huge volumes of voting this year.