It's actually way more than that, because you have to adjust both ways then, and Trump performed worse in Texas and Arizona than the polls indicated.jfish26 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:56 pmI don't think it will end up being that close.
While the media is rightly not counting any chickens, the math is just too difficult for Trump.
If the polls are off as much as they were in 2016...then Biden would end up at 315 votes or something.
Trump effectively needs an inside straight; any pair, or perhaps even a good high card, would do it for Biden.
Adjusting the polls based on 2016 results, using the RCP average of polls, Trump wins NC, IA, OH and WI, but Biden wins GA, AZ, TX, PA, MI and FL. So, 364 for Biden.
My expectations are lower because of mail in votes being discarded due to signature mismatches and not getting in on time.