Exit polls

[ousdahl]

Doyel I figured this could use its own thread

The wait continues... meanwhile:

[Deleted User 289]

Dumb question time.
People talk about polls. Pre-election polls and exit polls.
I am 54 years old. I have now voted in 10 Presidential elections. Well, I guess 9 because I abstained in 1.
I have NEVER been "polled".
So..... As I say too often, unless EVERYONE is polled and EVERYONE is 100% truthful, Presidential voting polls are nothing more than assumptions. Often poor ones.
Why do "we" put so much stock in to polls?

[pdub]

I guess i'll go illy here but if you were a white man you could say the same thing and replace white people with black people, black women, college educated blacks, non-college-educated blacks, black men ( or men of color, women of color etc - the maps would be largely blue ).

So if you were a believer of Trump ( and read my 1st post in election if you want to warp this into me supporting Trump ) and extremely against the policies of the Left ( Biden/Kamala ) you could be concerned about how 'folks' aren't speaking for you.

[Cascadia]

Dumb question time.
People talk about polls. Pre-election polls and exit polls.
I am 54 years old. I have now voted in 10 Presidential elections. Well, I guess 9 because I abstained in 1.
I have NEVER been "polled".
So..... As I say too often, unless EVERYONE is polled and EVERYONE is 100% truthful, Presidential voting polls are nothing more than assumptions. Often poor ones.
Why do "we" put so much stock in to polls?

Math

[Deleted User 310]

Even when that "math" has proven to be very wrong 2 elections in a row? Either intentionally or unintentionally.

[defixione]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... all-right/

[Cascadia]

Even when that "math" has proven to be very wrong 2 elections in a row? Either intentionally or unintentionally.

What math?

[pdub]

I prefer the polls at The Dirty Bird.

[zsn]

How can there be “exit polls” when a majority of the votes are mailed in? As we all see how disparate the preference is between those who vote by mail and in person, it’s that much difficult to estimate.

Turns out that the polls weren’t that far off in the Presidential election. It’s the Senate race (Maine, NC) that were quite far off.

Much of the angst we’re facing now is because Pennsylvania was not allowed to process mail in ballots ahead of polls closing as they did in many states. If they were following the same practice as FL, TX or OH it would have all been over by Wednesday morning.

[Cascadia]

The most consistent issue with all polls is that viewers/readers always forget about the +/- factor. That’s a human problem, not a math problem

[ousdahl]

[Sparko]

If the popular vote percentages hold, the polling was correct. Trump had about a 44 percent approval rating consistent thru the term. 54 percent disapproved. The scary consistency of the unmovable approval voters through all the scandals was even more motivated to vote. But not quite enough. 48 percent of the vote.