‘21 Draft

[Deleted User 89]

Every time some poster says something overarching and generic about “how player x doesn’t gain anything nba wise by returning” I can just generically reply with “buddy heild”.

It’s just illy’s schtick . It’s the exact same thing every year.

and i’m an idiot for engaging him and thinking it would go any differently

makes sense though, since he didn’t actually go to KU. he really has no idea what it’s like to be a student, or student/athlete, there

[Deleted User 863]

Every time some poster says something overarching and generic about “how player x doesn’t gain anything nba wise by returning” I can just generically reply with “buddy heild”.

He was averaging 16.5pts per game his sophomore year. It wasn't a 1 year jump. He would have still been a 1st rounder after his junior year and likely drafted after his sophomore year.

[Deleted User 863]

Every time some poster says something overarching and generic about “how player x doesn’t gain anything nba wise by returning” I can just generically reply with “buddy heild”.

It’s just illy’s schtick . It’s the exact same thing every year.

and i’m an idiot for engaging him and thinking it would go any differently

makes sense though, since he didn’t actually go to KU. he really has no idea what it’s like to be a student, or student/athlete, there

Lulz.

Diploma smack!

I am sure you know ALL about what it's like to be a KU basketball player.

[Deleted User 863]

And Och isn't buddy hield, so if we're going to do this then lets be realistic.

Selden? How'd it work out?
Dotson? Howd it work out?

Right or wrong, the NBA isn't really all that concerned with college performance in the grand scheme of things. Och having a good year in college against college competition isn't going to significantly change their outlook for him. He's a 2nd round type talent. And that's more than okay. Maybe he knows he's not making the NBA anyway and is ready to go make 6figures overseas playing a sport he loves. Sounds terrible to me.

[twocoach]

He rarely catches alley oops fwiw.

He has proven he has a decent 3pt shot and that he has an NBA body and potential to be a good defender. That isn't going to significantly change with an extra 7months in Lawrence. He isn't turning into a lotto pick. 2nd rounder is nothing to turn your nose up at. Most of his work to make it in the nba will need to be done in the nba. Not college.

fringe second rounder and maybe undrafted

big difference between that and second rounder or fringe first rounder

He's not going to elevate himself into a lock 1st rounder no matter what (if we are being realistic). So no, not a big difference. There is very little difference (long term) between 2nd rounder and undrafted.

Was Desmond Bane slated to be a first rounder prior to his senior season at TCU? Because he got drafted #30 overall at the end of the 1st round after showing in his senior year that he can be an excellent spot up shooter. I see him as the model of what Agbaji could do with another season at Kansas and Agbaji is by far more athletic than Bane.

[CrimsonNBlue]

Every time some poster says something overarching and generic about “how player x doesn’t gain anything nba wise by returning” I can just generically reply with “buddy heild”.

He was averaging 16.5pts per game his sophomore year. It wasn't a 1 year jump. He would have still been a 1st rounder after his junior year and likely drafted after his sophomore year.

Hield's stock was fringe first round as a junior in 2015 even after winning Big 12 POY because of concerns over his size and inability to play on the ball.

He obviously stayed, became NPOY, went to the Final Four, and was drafted 6th overall. No RAgrets.

[pdub]

Every time some poster says something overarching and generic about “how player x doesn’t gain anything nba wise by returning” I can just generically reply with “buddy heild”.

He was averaging 16.5pts per game his sophomore year. It wasn't a 1 year jump. He would have still been a 1st rounder after his junior year and likely drafted after his sophomore year.

Hield was ranked in the 35-40 range so no, not necessarily.
He increased his scoring by 30% from his junior to senior year.
That type of increase would have Ochai scoring 18.3 points per game - and if Ochai had that increase at Kansas, i'd feel very comfortable saying he'd be a first round pick.

I also looked back to see if Illy had missed this thread where we talked about this previously but no, no he was involved in it:

viewtopic.php?p=191329#p191329

[CrimsonNBlue]

Right or wrong, the NBA isn't really all that concerned with college performance in the grand scheme of things. Och having a good year in college against college competition isn't going to significantly change their outlook for him.

You are way overselling this.

There are like 5ish guys in the draft where the college performance doesn't matter. The rest are kind of in a range where they can separate their draft stock.

I mean, we are just a little over a year where you said Udoka had no chance of being a first round pick no matter what he did as a senior. We are less than a year where we saw BJ Boston go from Top 10 lock to selling insurance for a living. Of course college play plays a role.

[Deleted User 863]

fringe second rounder and maybe undrafted

big difference between that and second rounder or fringe first rounder

He's not going to elevate himself into a lock 1st rounder no matter what (if we are being realistic). So no, not a big difference. There is very little difference (long term) between 2nd rounder and undrafted.

Was Desmond Bane slated to be a first rounder prior to his senior season at TCU? Because he got drafted #30 overall at the end of the 1st round after showing in his senior year that he can be an excellent spot up shooter. I see him as the model of what Agbaji could do with another season at Kansas and Agbaji is by far more athletic than Bane.

Better example....

But Bane shot better his sophomore year than his senior....and similar his junior year....so he didn't develop a jumper out of nowhere like you are trying to mold your narrative about him.

I have no idea where he would have been drafted after his junior year.

You act like i said no player has ever improved his draft stock by staying an extra year (which i didn't say), but moving the goal posts is common so hey par for the course.

[Deleted User 863]

Right or wrong, the NBA isn't really all that concerned with college performance in the grand scheme of things. Och having a good year in college against college competition isn't going to significantly change their outlook for him.

You are way overselling this.

There are like 5ish guys in the draft where the college performance doesn't matter. The rest are kind of in a range where they can separate their draft stock.

I mean, we are just a little over a year where you said Udoka had no chance of being a first round pick no matter what he did as a senior. We are less than a year where we saw BJ Boston go from Top 10 lock to selling insurance for a living. Of course college play plays a role.

Highly doubt i said that about Udoka seeing as how he played 9 games his junior year.

More likely i doubted his chances at NBA success based on his skillset.

[CrimsonNBlue]

More likely i doubted his chances at NBA success based on his skillset.

Thus, you were discounting any effect college performance may have on draft stock.

I generally agree, as would anyone here, that there are more impactful factors than college performance. But, nearly every single year we see a college kid get drafted in the first round that was nowhere on the radar a season before. There are like 50-100 players all trying to separate themselves.

[Deleted User 863]

More likely i doubted his chances at NBA success based on his skillset.

Thus, you were discounting any effect college performance may have on draft stock.

I generally agree, as would anyone here, that there are more impactful factors than college performance. But, nearly every single year we see a college kid get drafted in the first round that was nowhere on the radar a season before. There are like 50-100 players all trying to separate themselves.

No, i was discounting that someone with his skillset was a desired asset in todays nba.

We can run thru the list of why a Dok situation and an Och situation are almost nothing alike....but i think you are aware of those important details.

[pdub]

We could also run thru a list of why a Dok situation and an Och situation are alike.

[CrimsonNBlue]

More likely i doubted his chances at NBA success based on his skillset.

Thus, you were discounting any effect college performance may have on draft stock.

I generally agree, as would anyone here, that there are more impactful factors than college performance. But, nearly every single year we see a college kid get drafted in the first round that was nowhere on the radar a season before. There are like 50-100 players all trying to separate themselves.

No, i was discounting that someone with his skillset was a desired asset in todays nba.

We can run thru the list of why a Dok situation and an Och situation are almost nothing alike....but i think you are aware of those important details.

We could, but I am arguing just your one point that college performance can't make a significant change to someone's outlook, therefore it would be quite irrelevant to run through any list.

The ESPN preseason 2021 mock draft did not have 22 year old Davion Mitchell on it. Not even second round. He is projected safely in the lottery.

[CrimsonNBlue]

Udoka still very well could not play more than 40 more games in the NBA. He wasn't projected to play very many. But someone took a shot, and gave him a lot of money. Based on what he did as a senior in college.

[pdub]

Let's simplify this illy.
Do you think Ochai will be drafted in the 1st round this year?

[jfish26]

Right or wrong, the NBA isn't really all that concerned with college performance in the grand scheme of things. Och having a good year in college against college competition isn't going to significantly change their outlook for him.

You are way overselling this.

There are like 5ish guys in the draft where the college performance doesn't matter. The rest are kind of in a range where they can separate their draft stock.

I mean, we are just a little over a year where you said Udoka had no chance of being a first round pick no matter what he did as a senior. We are less than a year where we saw BJ Boston go from Top 10 lock to selling insurance for a living. Of course college play plays a role.

And we're only talking about one side of the story. Development from/after October 2021 is relevant, too. I think there's a compelling case to be made that Och would be in a pretty good developmental spot here, playing with a representative lead guard again.

Of course, there is a compelling case to be made that not having to deal with everything that goes with being in college could be better, developmentally.

[CrimsonNBlue]

I was going to post something snarky earlier that if I were Och, I would not want to come back here and play with Dajuan Harris.

I'm not sure what Och wants, but there are enough examples each way where he is not in a position that it is a no-brainer decision from a draft stock standpoint.

[twocoach]

He's not going to elevate himself into a lock 1st rounder no matter what (if we are being realistic). So no, not a big difference. There is very little difference (long term) between 2nd rounder and undrafted.

Was Desmond Bane slated to be a first rounder prior to his senior season at TCU? Because he got drafted #30 overall at the end of the 1st round after showing in his senior year that he can be an excellent spot up shooter. I see him as the model of what Agbaji could do with another season at Kansas and Agbaji is by far more athletic than Bane.

Better example....

But Bane shot better his sophomore year than his senior....and similar his junior year....so he didn't develop a jumper out of nowhere like you are trying to mold your narrative about him.

I have no idea where he would have been drafted after his junior year.

You act like i said no player has ever improved his draft stock by staying an extra year (which i didn't say), but moving the goal posts is common so hey par for the course.

You just made up a narrative and assigned it to me so let's not bring up "moving the goalposts". I am molding no "narrative".

All I stated was that Desmond Bane, who name showed up in zero of the 2019 NBA mock drafts that I found, proved in his senior year that he was a good enough shooter to go from a draft afterthought to an end of the first round pick. There are examples in every single draft of other players who have done similar things to their draft stock with an additional season of college hoops so I reject your theory that Agbaji cannot improve his draft stock with another season at Kansas.

[Deleted User 863]

Thus, you were discounting any effect college performance may have on draft stock.

I generally agree, as would anyone here, that there are more impactful factors than college performance. But, nearly every single year we see a college kid get drafted in the first round that was nowhere on the radar a season before. There are like 50-100 players all trying to separate themselves.

No, i was discounting that someone with his skillset was a desired asset in todays nba.

We can run thru the list of why a Dok situation and an Och situation are almost nothing alike....but i think you are aware of those important details.

We could, but I am arguing just your one point that college performance can't make a significant change to someone's outlook, therefore it would be quite irrelevant to run through any list.

The ESPN preseason 2021 mock draft did not have 22 year old Davion Mitchell on it. Not even second round. He is projected safely in the lottery.

Fair enough...but again i didn't say it NEVER makes an impact for any individual player. Obviously sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. With Och, i don't see next year making a huge difference draft position wise. There are some hints that have been shared that tend to indicate his camps feels the same way, which is why many of us think he is staying in the draft regardless....and maybe that's because he is comfortable being a 2nd rounder. And it wouldn't shock me if he has a good combine if he could sneak into an earlier spot late 1st round or early 2nd.

Mitchell went from averaging 10pts a game to 15pts a game which is similar to the jump Och took from year 2 to year 3....it is his improvement on 3pt % from 32% to 45% that is probably a big part of why he may go lotto now. Thats a big jump. Exception or rule?
Hard to say at this point.

Fwiw i sort of think he will be a bust (by lotto standards) in the NBA....but his defense should help him hang around. if his ridiculous shooting comes back to closer to normal