Lobby - warning: actual science ahead:
https://zenodo.org/record/5106841#.YPmEjo5Kjct
As for the vast majority of human viruses, the most parsimonious explanation for the origin of
SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic event. The documented epidemiological history of the virus is
comparable to previous animal market-associated outbreaks of coronaviruses with a simple
route for human exposure. The contact tracing of SARS-CoV-2 to markets in Wuhan exhibits
striking similarities to the early spread of SARS-CoV to markets in Guangdong, where humans
infected early in the epidemic lived near or worked in animal markets. Zoonotic spillover by
definition selects for viruses able to infect humans. The laboratory escapes documented to date have almost exclusively involved viruses brought into laboratories specifically because of their
known human infectivity.
There is currently no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin. There is no evidence
that any early cases had any connection to the WIV, in contrast to the clear epidemiological links
to animal markets in Wuhan, nor evidence that the WIV possessed or worked on a progenitor of
SARS-CoV-2 prior to the pandemic. The suspicion that SARS-CoV-2 might have a laboratory
origin stems from the coincidence that it was first detected in a city that houses a major
virological laboratory that studies coronaviruses. Wuhan is the largest city in central China with
multiple animal markets and is a major hub for travel and commerce, well connected to other
areas both within China and internationally. The link to Wuhan therefore more likely reflects the
fact that pathogens often require heavily populated areas to become established
We contend that there is substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin for
SARS-CoV-2. While the possibility of a laboratory accident cannot be entirely dismissed, and
may be near impossible to falsify, this conduit for emergence is highly unlikely relative to the
numerous and repeated human-animal contacts that occur routinely in the wildlife trade. Failure
to comprehensively investigate the zoonotic origin through collaborative and carefully
coordinated studies would leave the world vulnerable to future pandemics arising from the same
human activities that have repeatedly put us on a collision course with novel viruses.
The Origins of SARS-CoV-2: A Critical Review
Edward C. Holmes1
, Stephen A. Goldstein2
, Angela L. Rasmussen3
, David L. Robertson4
,
Alexander Crits-Christoph5
, Joel O. Wertheim6
, Simon J. Anthony7
, Wendy S. Barclay8
, Maciej F.
Boni9
, Peter C. Doherty10, Jeremy Farrar11, Jemma L. Geoghegan12, Xiaowei Jiang13, Julian L.
Leibowitz14, Stuart J. D. Neil15, Tim Skern16, Susan R. Weiss17, Michael Worobey18, Kristian G.
Andersen19, Robert F. Garry20,21, Andrew Rambaut22.
1
Marie Bashir Institute for Infectious Diseases and Biosecurity,School of Life and Environmental
Sciences and School of Medical Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006,
Australia.
2
Department of Human Genetics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.
3
Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, S7N
5E3, Canada.
4
MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, G61 1QH, UK.
5
Department of Plant and Microbial Biology, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
94704, USA.
6
Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
7
Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of California Davis School
of Veterinary Medicine, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
8
Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, W2 1PG, UK.
9
Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
10Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at the Doherty
Institute, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia.
11The Wellcome Trust, London, NW1 2BE, UK.
12Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.
Institute of Environmental Science and Research, Wellington, New Zealand.
13Department of Biological Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU), Suzhou,
China.
14Department of Microbial Pathogenesis and Immunology, Texas A&M University, College
Station, TX 77807, USA.
This document is copyright of the authors. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
15Department of Infectious Diseases, King’s College London, Guy’s Hospital, London SE1 9RT,
UK.
16Max Perutz Labs, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna Biocenter, Dr. Bohr-Gasse 9/3, A-1030
Vienna, Austria.
17Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania. Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
18Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721,
USA.
19Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA
92037, USA.
20Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Tulane University School of Medicine, New
Orleans, LA 70112, USA.
21Zalgen Labs, Germantown, MD 20876, USA.
22Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
