Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

[ousdahl]

Just an FYI, for anyone trying to sell, now is the time. Lots of instability already happening in the housing market, and the interest rate cut in September is only going to make things worse. It will be a great time to buy though.

[Deleted User 89]

he’s such a clown

[PhDhawk]

It's going to be really unfortunate that employers are going to face massive lawsuits when employers realize their health was damaged by the vaccines. The problem is, there won't be enough money to pay out everyone. This could be the black swan that collapses everything.

The risk of side effects from the vaccine is miniscule, approaching 0%.

The risks associated with the virus are huge.

[ousdahl]

I was on the fence about the vax until I heard a legit long term symptom of he virus is ED

[Overlander]

It's going to be really unfortunate that employers are going to face massive lawsuits when employers realize their health was damaged by the vaccines. The problem is, there won't be enough money to pay out everyone. This could be the black swan that collapses everything.

Nostradumbass is out of time out?

[Deleted User 89]

heard an interesting dynamic to the housing situation this morning that i hadn’t heard before

pre-2008 the US was building something like 3mil new homes/year...after 2008 that number dropped to below 750,000 and has hovered around that level since, which caused a whole bunch of trained and qualified home builders to leave the industry. this could result in a housing shortage lasting close to 10 years

[Deleted User 863]

heard an interesting dynamic to the housing situation this morning that i hadn’t heard before

pre-2008 the US was building something like 3mil new homes/year...after 2008 that number dropped to below 750,000 and has hovered around that level since, which caused a whole bunch of trained and qualified home builders to leave the industry. this could result in a housing shortage lasting close to 10 years

Wonder how much of that decline was due to banks deciding spec houses were too risky to finance for the less finaicially strong builders?

We stopped doing spec projects for all but 3 of our big residential builders....and we are approaching being a 1billion dollar bank.

We still do a lot of presolds with our other builders. But no more specs. And no more allowing borrowers to be their own general contractor.

We had builders who would run over costs on 1 project (financed with us or somewhere else) and start using money from other deals to bridge the gap. Eventually when that goes bad it goes REALLY bad, because there isn't much collateral value in a half built house. Now we also have a guy who does construction inspections to make sure the "draws" on their line of credit is matching up with where they are in the project and what that money is supposed to be used for.

Pre 2008 banks were doing some wild ass shit. Or at least not paying attention well enough to catch it early enough.

[Sparko]

This thread was one of the most epic fails of all time. Completely and utterly wrong. Including the vaccine mania. It deserves HOF status.

[Deleted User 89]

heard an interesting dynamic to the housing situation this morning that i hadn’t heard before

pre-2008 the US was building something like 3mil new homes/year...after 2008 that number dropped to below 750,000 and has hovered around that level since, which caused a whole bunch of trained and qualified home builders to leave the industry. this could result in a housing shortage lasting close to 10 years

Wonder how much of that decline was due to banks deciding spec houses were too risky to finance for the less finaicially strong builders?

We stopped doing spec projects for all but 3 of our big residential builders....and we are approaching being a 1billion dollar bank.

We still do a lot of presolds with our other builders. But no more specs. And no more allowing borrowers to be their own general contractor.

We had builders who would run over costs on 1 project (financed with us or somewhere else) and start using money from other deals to bridge the gap. Eventually when that goes bad it goes REALLY bad, because there isn't much collateral value in a half built house. Now we also have a guy who does construction inspections to make sure the "draws" on their line of credit is matching up with where they are in the project and what that money is supposed to be used for.

Pre 2008 banks were doing some wild ass shit. Or at least not paying attention well enough to catch it early enough.

i’d imagine that, in general, lending institutions were trigger shy across the board to fund building projects post-2008

[Deleted User 89]

This thread was one of the most epic fails of all time. Completely and utterly wrong. Including the vaccine mania. It deserves HOF status.

i agree with the sentiment, but that would really only serve to give the thread creator more attention and make him feel special

he doesn’t deserve to be memorialized in such a way

[TDub]

Well....mortgage forgiveness is ending. Lenders are asking landlords and homeowners for 18 months of payments soon....we shall see how that plays out.

[Deleted User 89]

Well....mortgage forgiveness is ending. Lenders are asking landlords and homeowners for 18 months of payments soon....we shall see how that plays out.

it’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away

if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels

[TDub]

Well....mortgage forgiveness is ending. Lenders are asking landlords and homeowners for 18 months of payments soon....we shall see how that plays out.

it’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away

if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels

The shortage slips away if the bank owns 15% of houses after default.

[Deleted User 89]

Well....mortgage forgiveness is ending. Lenders are asking landlords and homeowners for 18 months of payments soon....we shall see how that plays out.

it’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away

if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels

The shortage slips away if the bank owns 15% of houses after default.

where is that coming from?

just a quick search, and i see an estimate of half a million borrowers for whom the forbearance prevented foreclosure...that’s a far cry from 15%

i’m not necessarily disagreeing with you, i’m just curious

[Deleted User 863]

Well....mortgage forgiveness is ending. Lenders are asking landlords and homeowners for 18 months of payments soon....we shall see how that plays out.

it’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away

if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels

I wonder what the age demographics are for people in that field? Less and less young people are looking to be builders in my limited personal experience in RE in my area. That's likely to play a role in the raw number of actual builders moving forward (assuming similar trends in markets across the country).

[Deleted User 89]

Well....mortgage forgiveness is ending. Lenders are asking landlords and homeowners for 18 months of payments soon....we shall see how that plays out.

it’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away

if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels

I wonder what the age demographics are for people in that field? Less and less young people are looking to be builders in my limited personal experience in RE in my area. That's likely to play a role in the raw number of actual builders moving forward (assuming similar trends in markets across the country).

that was another point that was made in the conversation this morning, that because there wasn’t the demand, there were fewer people also looking to get into the industry

[TDub]

it’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away

if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels

The shortage slips away if the bank owns 15% of houses after default.

where is that coming from?

just a quick search, and i see an estimate of half a million borrowers for whom the forbearance prevented foreclosure...that’s a far cry from 15%

i’m not necessarily disagreeing with you, i’m just curious

Im looking for the quote. I read it a few days ago that up to 15% of homes were in danger of default when the programs tapered off. It may not have been a nationwide stat, however

[Deleted User 89]

looking at a cbs article that says more than 8 million

that’s a pretty wide disparity

i’ll do some more looking when i can

[Deleted User 863]

it’ll help, but the shortage isn’t just going away

if you believe the premise that the shortage of builders is real, it’ll take years to build back to reasonable levels

I wonder what the age demographics are for people in that field? Less and less young people are looking to be builders in my limited personal experience in RE in my area. That's likely to play a role in the raw number of actual builders moving forward (assuming similar trends in markets across the country).

that was another point that was made in the conversation this morning, that because there wasn’t the demand, there were fewer people also looking to get into the industry

Makes sense. Also makes me wonder how many of the older demographic found better paying work that wasn't as physically demanding? And Are similar trend lines happening in plumbing/electrical/other trades?

[TDub]

I wonder what the age demographics are for people in that field? Less and less young people are looking to be builders in my limited personal experience in RE in my area. That's likely to play a role in the raw number of actual builders moving forward (assuming similar trends in markets across the country).

that was another point that was made in the conversation this morning, that because there wasn’t the demand, there were fewer people also looking to get into the industry

Makes sense. Also makes me wonder how many of the older demographic found better paying work that wasn't as physically demanding? And Are similar trend lines happening in plumbing/electrical/other trades?

Yes, but very rarely for better pay. Trades pay well. We've been over this before but there is a stigma attached to the trades that is seeded early in our achool systems.