Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

[TDub]

We are lacking trades people in every trade and that shortgage is increasing.

[Deleted User 863]

that was another point that was made in the conversation this morning, that because there wasn’t the demand, there were fewer people also looking to get into the industry

Makes sense. Also makes me wonder how many of the older demographic found better paying work that wasn't as physically demanding? And Are similar trend lines happening in plumbing/electrical/other trades?

Yes, but very rarely for better pay. Trades pay well. We've been over this before but there is a stigma attached to the trades that is seeded early in our achool systems.

True about the stigma.

I know more about residential than commercial construction, but i wouldn't be surprised to see profit margins shrinking over the last 20-30 years due to various factors. That's more of what i was trying to get at. Less physical demanding work for slightly less money might be appealing to an aging demographic of workers. I haven't done any research, but those questions would be things i would want to answer when looking at the industry as a whole.

[Deleted User 89]

Forbes article says over a million mortgages threatened with foreclosure

MarketWatch says 14.7% of FHA mortgages...but those only represent a little over 12% of total number

so, who the fuck knows what the real number is...guess we’ll see in the next few months regardless

[Deleted User 89]

that was another point that was made in the conversation this morning, that because there wasn’t the demand, there were fewer people also looking to get into the industry

Makes sense. Also makes me wonder how many of the older demographic found better paying work that wasn't as physically demanding? And Are similar trend lines happening in plumbing/electrical/other trades?

Yes, but very rarely for better pay. Trades pay well. We've been over this before but there is a stigma attached to the trades that is seeded early in our achool systems.

is it really school though?

my perceived need for a “four year degree” came mire from my parents than anywhere else...at least as far as i can remember

but they both have college degrees, one with a Masters...so there’s definitely a bias there

interestingly, my pops also worked as a plumber and surveyor at different points in his life, even with his Forestry degree

[TDub]

Makes sense. Also makes me wonder how many of the older demographic found better paying work that wasn't as physically demanding? And Are similar trend lines happening in plumbing/electrical/other trades?

Yes, but very rarely for better pay. Trades pay well. We've been over this before but there is a stigma attached to the trades that is seeded early in our achool systems.

True about the stigma.

I know more about residential than commercial construction, but i wouldn't be surprised to see profit margins shrinking over the last 20-30 years due to various factors. That's more of what i was trying to get at. Less physical demanding work for slightly less money might be appealing to an aging demographic of workers. I haven't done any research, but those questions would be things i would want to answer when looking at the industry as a whole.

Without doing a bunch if research and basing this only off what I see.

1. I would say, pay and profit margins have been increasing and not decreasing

2. It is the aging population that is keeping the industry afloat. I dont see the aging workers bailing on the industry. But, there is no influx of new blood in the apprenticeships and low interest in the industry by younger people. I would wager the average age of workers has steadily increased over that time frame.

The real crunch hasnt hit yet, but will in the next 10 years or so as the experienced folks retire off and there isnt a new batch of already experienced workers to take their spots.

I dont have the numbers....but that is what I see day to day.

[TDub]

Makes sense. Also makes me wonder how many of the older demographic found better paying work that wasn't as physically demanding? And Are similar trend lines happening in plumbing/electrical/other trades?

Yes, but very rarely for better pay. Trades pay well. We've been over this before but there is a stigma attached to the trades that is seeded early in our achool systems.

is it really school though?

my perceived need for a “four year degree” came mire from my parents than anywhere else...at least as far as i can remember

but they both have college degrees, one with a Masters

Schools push college hard and provide little in the way of alternate pathways (at least they did 20 some years ago). Additionally, they have cut funding and cut programs like auto body and woodshop in many districts.so kids arent exposed to alternative paths that they might find they enjoy.

[TDub]

Forbes article says over a million mortgages threatened with foreclosure

MarketWatch says 14.7% of FHA mortgages...but those only represent a little over 12% of total number

so, who the fuck knows what the real number is...guess we’ll see in the next few months regardless

It is admittedly possible that i read the 14.7% number and missed the "of FHA mortgages" qualifier.


Either way, even if its a million hones, thats not insignificant

[Deleted User 89]

Yes, but very rarely for better pay. Trades pay well. We've been over this before but there is a stigma attached to the trades that is seeded early in our achool systems.

is it really school though?

my perceived need for a “four year degree” came mire from my parents than anywhere else...at least as far as i can remember

but they both have college degrees, one with a Masters

Schools push college hard and provide little in the way of alternate pathways (at least they did 20 some years ago). Additionally, they have cut funding and cut programs like auto body and woodshop in many districts.so kids arent exposed to alternative paths that they might find they enjoy.

i honestly have no idea what that environment is like now, but that wasn’t my experience 20 years ago...we still had those elective “shop” classes. it’s a shame that they’re doing away with them. i didn’t take them in high school, but loved them in junior high

[Deleted User 89]

Forbes article says over a million mortgages threatened with foreclosure

MarketWatch says 14.7% of FHA mortgages...but those only represent a little over 12% of total number

so, who the fuck knows what the real number is...guess we’ll see in the next few months regardless

It is admittedly possible that i read the 14.7% number and missed the "of FHA mortgages" qualifier.


Either way, even if its a million hones, thats not insignificant

you’re absolutely right...it’s notable and will help

if the numbers i was hearing this morning are even close to correct, we’re short somewhere along the lines of 20millon homes

[zsn]

My daughters went through junior/high school within the last decade and shop class was an afterthought. It’s there if you really want it but one has to go out of the way. My older one took woodshop, but my younger one wasn’t terribly interested.

At least in our locality people see major $$$$ in the tech industry and everyone wants to enroll in biology and computer science. Not a bad thing but perpetuates the shortage of trades people.

Enter (il)legal immigrants. A majority of trades people in our area, especially the younger ones, tend to be from Eastern Europe, East and South Asia or Latin America. More or less in that order. Unskilled labor tends to be mostly from Latin America.

[TDub]

Tile and flooring guys are eastern european and they all smoke 142 cigarettes a day.

Drywall, landscaping, and a fair amount of concrete guys are stereotypically Hispanic

Carpenters are usually american/western european. Finish carpenters in particular.

Its amazing how true these stereotypes hold with obvious exceptions.

I havent run into too many Asian tradesman (even in Seattle surprisingly) but a lot of them were either electricians or sheetmetal workers it seemed.


Ironworkers are.......shaking head.

[Deleted User 89]

... Landry is one of about 1.8 million homeowners still in forbearance as the safety net is removed. About a fifth of them will not be able to extend their forbearance past September. And 1.5 million more are at least three months behind on their mortgage without the protection of a forbearance plan...

from Washington Post

i think the bigger issue is going to be the renters who are behind, rather than homeowners

[Deleted User 863]

... Landry is one of about 1.8 million homeowners still in forbearance as the safety net is removed. About a fifth of them will not be able to extend their forbearance past September. And 1.5 million more are at least three months behind on their mortgage without the protection of a forbearance plan...

from Washington Post

i think the bigger issue is going to be the renters who are behind, rather than homeowners

Yes.

It is very hard to foreclose on a personal residence if the borrower is showing a willingness to pay...which basically means even if they are 3+ months behind, if they are making occasional payments their bank will work with them to avoid foreclosure.

The issue with landlords is that many (most i see personally) are leveraged to the max and their cash flow is tight. If 5% of their tenants don't pay then that can be a disaster because even once you evict them (which takes time and $) you've got to clean/repair the property and get a new tenant in their before if can start generating income again even in a best case scenario. And these are often the types of properties that are harder to sell with a more limited buyer pool (lower income earners looking to be owners or other landlords looking to get them for cheap).

Our bank is keeping a close eye on our "slum lords". And also a watchful eye on our "land lords" with tight cash flow regardless of property quality.

[zsn]

If someone loans you $100 and you can’t pay it’s your problem. If someone loans you $100,000 and you can’t pay it’s their problem.

Unfortunately that’s how our financial system is set up. People like Trump and many others are well aware and take full advantage of the situation.

Banks unfortunately are stuck on the wrong side of the equation

[Deleted User 89]

i’ve said from the beginning that banks are what congress need to be dealing with re: rent and mortgages in default

[Deleted User 863]

i’ve said from the beginning that banks are what congress need to be dealing with re: rent and mortgages in default

What do you suggest the governement do? Give profitable banks even more money? Part of lending money is loans going bad. They have reserves for it. The banks will be fine.

[TDub]

i’ve said from the beginning that banks are what congress need to be dealing with re: rent and mortgages in default

What do you suggest the governement do? Give profitable banks even more money? Part of lending money is loans going bad. They have reserves for it. The banks will be fine.

History says this isnt always the case.

[Deleted User 863]

i’ve said from the beginning that banks are what congress need to be dealing with re: rent and mortgages in default

What do you suggest the governement do? Give profitable banks even more money? Part of lending money is loans going bad. They have reserves for it. The banks will be fine.

History says this isnt always the case.

We probably should have let those big banks fail. I also know the unintended implications of that statement.

[TDub]

What do you suggest the governement do? Give profitable banks even more money? Part of lending money is loans going bad. They have reserves for it. The banks will be fine.

History says this isnt always the case.

We probably should have let those big banks fail. I also know the unintended implications of that statement.

Didnt go so well the decade that they failed either.

[TDub]

To be clear, im not suggesting the govt get involved in bailing out bad bank loans. Just that its a complicated, multi faceted issue without a great answer.