KCrim Fantasy League

[TDub]

thats what I been sayin...

[hartjack8]

I'm in last place 0-3. Scored enough to win the first two weeks but up against top scorer. I was favored to win slightly then McCaffrey goes down and I lose.

My draft was horrible but I was ill prepared since I didn't think I was actually playing. LOL

[pdub]

In the end, it’s mostly luck mixed with some basic knowledge.

Similar to blackjack.
Sometimes you get dealt a great hand and you just stay.
Sometimes you think you have a great hand and then ( ie McCaffrey gets hurt ) the dealer lands a great card to beat you.
Sometimes you’re just dealt a 6 and the dealer is showing 10 and you just have to hit and hope for the right cards.

[twocoach]

There's a QB on waivers who has more points than Henry.
QBs score more than RBs typically.

It's not about the score, it's about the difference between what you picked and what you could have picked.

That a QB on waivers scores nearly as well as an elite RB just means it is that much more important to get a high scoring RB. The difference between RB1 and RB3 in my league right now is 27.5 points. That's the same as the difference between QB1 and QB12. Why waste a high pick on a QB when you can get a QB who scores nearly as high per week 7 rounds later? You sure aren't getting a running back 7 rounds later who is scoring nearly as well as a running back taken in the 1st round.

Maybe it means a little less in an 8 team league due to how many fewer players get drafted but I wouldnt waste a pick on a QB in the top 4 rounds ever.

[pdub]

Correct.

[twocoach]

I was the last person to pick a starting QB in my league, grabbing Tom Brady in the 8th Round. He is tied for the lead in QB fantasy points. I took Jalen Hurts three rounds later and he is 7th in points. Anyone think they are getting the #1 and #7 RBs in the league in the 8th and 11th rounds?!? Since I didn't waste a pick on a QB early, I took Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler in Rounds 1 and 2, who are currently 2nd and 3rd in the league in scoring for RBs. That's not luck.

[pdub]

Well, it is luck that Ekeler lasted that long or that you got to pick Aaron Jones instead of, say, several people ahead of you leaving McCaffrey and, because he was available, you picked him instead.

Or that you got the say 11th pick instead of the 5th and wasn't able to get a premiere back and gambled on Jonathan Taylor or Saquon.

But I agree it's wise strategy to wait to grab QBs.

Again, for me FF is like blackjack, you can be really bad at it if you don't know what you're doing but once you get the hang of it, it's very easy, and while you are much better at beating the odds, it's still ultimately a game of luck.

[twocoach]

Well, it is luck that Ekeler lasted that long or that you got to pick Aaron Jones instead of, say, several people ahead of you leaving McCaffrey and, because he was available, you picked him instead.

Or that you got the say 11th pick instead of the 5th and wasn't able to get a premiere back and gambled on Jonathan Taylor or Saquon.

But I agree it's wise strategy to wait to grab QBs.

Again, for me FF is like blackjack, you can be really bad at it if you don't know what you're doing but once you get the hang of it, it's very easy, and while you are much better at beating the odds, it's still ultimately a game of luck.

To me, the only thing that is luck is whether your players stay healthy or not. Knowing that your league is a slave to the draft tools and will take whoever floats to the top of their ranking tool is a skill, not luck. The rest is adjusting to the players drafted ahead of you and having a good strategy on the types of players you want/don't want and when you want to take certain positions. I would never take a guy like Barkley (injured) or Taylor (bad team fantasy wise). If those were the guys left to me, I would have taken one of the elite WRs on the board at the time.

My only regret from draft day is that I didn't go get Cooper Kupp when I had a shot at him in Round 5 (he went the pick after me) but I felt I needed to grab one of the last decent TEs (Mark Andrews) before the TE well ran dry. I could have taken Hockenson in Round 6 but I wanted to avoid Detroit players. But the combo of Kupp and Hockenson are outscoring my combo of Andrews and Adam Thielen. I'm still good there but I missed a shot at being better. Heck, Logan Thomas, the TE from Washington, is outscoring Andrews and he didn't go until Round 13. Gronk went in Round 14. You either get Kelce (he went pick #5 overall) or just take whatever TE you can find late. Live and learn.

[pdub]

Drafting is certainly a skill.
Just like knowing when to split your hand.
If you're sitting at a table with people who have no idea what they're doing, of course you're going to do better than them - but to a certain point, once you know the general idea, and most people at the table are doing their thing, you generally are relying more on luck than skill.

I've been playing fantasy football for 20 years.
If I were going to put a number on it, unless you're in an amateur league, i'd say it's 60% luck / 40% skill, because all the things you mentioned above, other managers are also doing.

The skill is draft preparation and long term roster management.
But there are so many cheat sheets that you can use for the draft -- and no one really knows which sheet is best -- if that was the case, you'd only follow that specific cheat sheet ( and everyone would ).
Once you've found one of those that you think you can trust, then you make your educated guesses on guys you think will strike hot according to your sheet -- and that's more luck than you think it is ( it's why guys who get paid to talk about it can completely whiff on their boom/busts ). For every guy you say you "KNEW" was gonna eat, and they are eating, you'll have plenty who you'll be completely wrong on. It happens every single season.

And then there's the simple fact of draft position and who gets picked before you - there's a lot of luck with that. You may have your targets but you aren't gonna pick your 5th round target if he gets picked at the end of the 3rd round. And then your 5th round target goes off -- well, it's unlucky that someone in your league just randomly decided to reach so high for them.

Your schedule is lucky. You can have seasons where you finish in the top half of points for but still don't finish in the top half of the league. Or you can have the reverse -- just because of fortunate matchups.

Then you have injuries, which is very much based on luck - and factors into your waiver order. You could save your waiver all season long, which is certainly a strategy, but also you could just happen to use your waiver order one week, have waited to move up to 2nd, and some RB goes down and you have no chance at the backup because someone happens to have that 1st pick that week.

Someone who says, "im just better at fantasy football," is either a. playing at a table with people who don't play blackjack or b. actually thinks it takes a great deal of skill to know what to do when you are dealt one card and the dealer is showing another.

[twocoach]

Drafting is certainly a skill.
Just like knowing when to split your hand.
If you're sitting at a table with people who have no idea what they're doing, of course you're going to do better than them - but to a certain point, once you know the general idea, and most people at the table are doing their thing, you generally are relying more on luck than skill.

I've been playing fantasy football for 20 years.
If I were going to put a number on it, unless you're in an amateur league, i'd say it's 60% luck / 40% skill, because all the things you mentioned above, other managers are also doing.

The skill is draft preparation and long term roster management.
But there are so many cheat sheets that you can use for the draft -- and no one really knows which sheet is best -- if that was the case, you'd only follow that specific cheat sheet ( and everyone would ).
Once you've found one of those that you think you can trust, then you make your educated guesses on guys you think will strike hot according to your sheet -- and that's more luck than you think it is ( it's why guys who get paid to talk about it can completely whiff on their boom/busts ). For every guy you say you "KNEW" was gonna eat, and they are eating, you'll have plenty who you'll be completely wrong on. It happens every single season.

And then there's the simple fact of draft position and who gets picked before you - there's a lot of luck with that. You may have your targets but you aren't gonna pick your 5th round target if he gets picked at the end of the 3rd round. And then your 5th round target goes off -- well, it's unlucky that someone in your league just randomly decided to reach so high for them.

Your schedule is lucky. You can have seasons where you finish in the top half of points for but still don't finish in the top half of the league. Or you can have the reverse -- just because of fortunate matchups.

Then you have injuries, which is very much based on luck - and factors into your waiver order. You could save your waiver all season long, which is certainly a strategy, but also you could just happen to use your waiver order one week, have waited to move up to 2nd, and some RB goes down and you have no chance at the backup because someone happens to have that 1st pick that week.

Someone who says, "im just better at fantasy football," is either a. playing at a table with people who don't play blackjack or b. actually thinks it takes a great deal of skill to know what to do when you are dealt one card and the dealer is showing another.

That's why I like that my league does their draft in person. It forces you to have a little more strategy and not to just rely on whatever the application tells you is the "experts recommend this guy" pick. It requires a lot more studying and prep and to have your ducks in a row for how you are going to track who has been picked and who is still available. Plus it's way more fun to get together as a group, drink beer and razz each other. But yeah, you can tell right away who has prepped well and who didn't give it a moment's though until a few hours or days before the draft.

Our 10 team league is split into two divisions. Division winners go to the playoffs as do the next 4 best records. Simple enough. In theory there's a little luck if you happen to be in a different division than the best player but there always seems to be at least one really good team in each division.

Our league doesn't have any fancy waiver stuff. Waivers run every Wednesday morning and if you want someone, you put in a request. Waivers run "worst first" and if someone worse than you wants that guy then you don't get him. I could get someone off waivers every single week if I wanted to. Then from Wednesday-Sunday, you're free to snag any unclaimed player as a free agent. Every move we make, either waiver or FA signing costs us $1. Winner of high points on the season gets all the waiver money. It's usually $100-150 or so.

[Deleted User 887]

In typical Gutter fashion.....
* I played the wrong QB today.
* Last week I started Cordarrelle Patterson and he didn't do much. This week I put him on my bench and he had 32.1 points.
* The Chiefs scored 42 points and Kelce only had 4.3 points.

I think my soon to be 2-2 team is a lot more like the 2-2 Bears than the 2-2 Chiefs.

[pdub]

Just let me beat Vega please.

[Deleted User 863]

Just let me beat Vega please.

#grudgematch

[sdoyel]

I am winning by 0.24 points. I need this W, bad.

[NewtonHawk11]

Top of the standings, you fuckers. Smoked Gutter.

Play Vega this week. Projected to lost by about 15. His team is stacked when they are on. Hope to have some good success.

[Deleted User 863]

I have had a favorable schedule so far.

1st and 2nd standings are 5th and 6th in total pts.

[NewtonHawk11]

Oh yeah. Very favorable. My team also hasn't had one game all together. I overthink things a lot. Sat Johnathan Taylor for Chuba Hubbard last week and he went off.

[pdub]

Vega and I should be in first and second respectively - the only teams over 500 points for.
I am glad I played Hurts over Herbert.

Meanwhile in my main league, my team is an absolute dumpster fire of bad luck and awful.
8 waiver claims in.

[sdoyel]

My team isn’t firing on all cylinders yet. I think I can make some noise before it’s said and done.

[NewtonHawk11]

You damn right I took a flyer on Josh Gordon in our league. Let's rock baby!