COVID-19 - On the Ground

[randylahey]

Science goes both ways tho. Only a small percentage of people have covid at any given time. Take that small percent multiply it by the likelihood of them transmitting it to someone else. Take that small percent multiple it by the odds that person is vulnerable to covid. Then add a mask to the equation and take that percent and multiply it by the odds of the mask preventing the spread

When you start looking at all the variables, you realize that the odds are so so so ridiculously low

where did the bolded info come from?

From common sense. If every single person in America were all tested for covid right this second. What percentage would we guess has an active covid infection and is contagious?

You can't spread covid if you don't have it

[randylahey]

Science goes both ways tho. Only a small percentage of people have covid at any given time. Take that small percent multiply it by the likelihood of them transmitting it to someone else. Take that small percent multiple it by the odds that person is vulnerable to covid. Then add a mask to the equation and take that percent and multiply it by the odds of the mask preventing the spread

When you start looking at all the variables, you realize that the odds are so so so ridiculously low

Several things are not true.

First of all, when Covid19 emerged, everyone was susceptible. Covid19 is highly contagious. Delta became even moreso.

You clearly don't understand epidemiology or how it works. That's why you should defer to the experts, the epidemiologists on this.

With an infectious disease, a small reduction in infection rate can result in an enormous difference you're dealing with logarithmic growth, not linear. It's not just about reducing the rate of transmission from on person to others, it's the impact that has on how many people are infected + how many people they infect + how many people they infect and so on.

Go grab a calculator and enter 3 X 3...then multiply that by 3 and repeat it 10 times, you get about 60,000. No do the same thing for 2. You only get a little over 1,000.

So, if masks reduce the number of people you most likely infect from 3 to 2, that seems like a modest reduction, 33%. But you can see how huge a difference it made.

It's not a perfect control, but all you have to do is look at influenza cases to see how much of an impact wearing masks and other mitigation efforts had on a respiratory pathogen. The flu season was the lowest it's ever been.

Man you are dramatic. The point being the odds of any one person giving another one person covid are really low. If that person were to get covid, the odds of them getting sick or dying are also really low. To most people that is reassuring. Your own statistics back both of these statements. But to you it is somehow a major cause for concern

[Overlander]

I now know 7 people by name who have died of Covid complications.

In 2 years.

In my 57 years, 4 people I know died in car crashes.

[Deleted User 89]

Science goes both ways tho. Only a small percentage of people have covid at any given time. Take that small percent multiply it by the likelihood of them transmitting it to someone else. Take that small percent multiple it by the odds that person is vulnerable to covid. Then add a mask to the equation and take that percent and multiply it by the odds of the mask preventing the spread

When you start looking at all the variables, you realize that the odds are so so so ridiculously low

where did the bolded info come from?

From common sense. If every single person in America were all tested for covid right this second. What percentage would we guess has an active covid infection and is contagious?

You can't spread covid if you don't have it

aka...you’re just making shit up to feed your narrative

common sense = getting vaccinated (hence, the overwhelming majority of the global population is in favor of vaccination)

you’re either straight up dishonest, or just not very bright (or both). i’ll let you pick which

[Deleted User 89]

Science goes both ways tho. Only a small percentage of people have covid at any given time. Take that small percent multiply it by the likelihood of them transmitting it to someone else. Take that small percent multiple it by the odds that person is vulnerable to covid. Then add a mask to the equation and take that percent and multiply it by the odds of the mask preventing the spread

When you start looking at all the variables, you realize that the odds are so so so ridiculously low

Several things are not true.

First of all, when Covid19 emerged, everyone was susceptible. Covid19 is highly contagious. Delta became even moreso.

You clearly don't understand epidemiology or how it works. That's why you should defer to the experts, the epidemiologists on this.

With an infectious disease, a small reduction in infection rate can result in an enormous difference you're dealing with logarithmic growth, not linear. It's not just about reducing the rate of transmission from on person to others, it's the impact that has on how many people are infected + how many people they infect + how many people they infect and so on.

Go grab a calculator and enter 3 X 3...then multiply that by 3 and repeat it 10 times, you get about 60,000. No do the same thing for 2. You only get a little over 1,000.

So, if masks reduce the number of people you most likely infect from 3 to 2, that seems like a modest reduction, 33%. But you can see how huge a difference it made.

It's not a perfect control, but all you have to do is look at influenza cases to see how much of an impact wearing masks and other mitigation efforts had on a respiratory pathogen. The flu season was the lowest it's ever been.

Man you are dramatic. The point being the odds of any one person giving another one person covid are really low. If that person were to get covid, the odds of them getting sick or dying are also really low. To most people that is reassuring. Your own statistics back both of these statements. But to you it is somehow a major cause for concern

dude, you’re just flat out wrong

if your premise were correct, covid woulda been a blip on the radar...not a global pandemic that has last more than 1.5 years and killed more than 4.8 million people globally

[randylahey]

where did the bolded info come from?

From common sense. If every single person in America were all tested for covid right this second. What percentage would we guess has an active covid infection and is contagious?

You can't spread covid if you don't have it

aka...you’re just making shit up to feed your narrative

common sense = getting vaccinated (hence, the overwhelming majority of the global population is in favor of vaccination)

you’re either straight up dishonest, or just not very bright (or both). i’ll let you pick which

What about that bolded statement do you think isn't true?

[Deleted User 89]

From common sense. If every single person in America were all tested for covid right this second. What percentage would we guess has an active covid infection and is contagious?

You can't spread covid if you don't have it

aka...you’re just making shit up to feed your narrative

common sense = getting vaccinated (hence, the overwhelming majority of the global population is in favor of vaccination)

you’re either straight up dishonest, or just not very bright (or both). i’ll let you pick which

What about that bolded statement do you think isn't true?

lol

good try

i guess you’re not going to admit you made it up

[Overlander]

where did the bolded info come from?

From common sense. If every single person in America were all tested for covid right this second. What percentage would we guess has an active covid infection and is contagious?

You can't spread covid if you don't have it

you’re either straight up dishonest, or just not very bright (or both). i’ll let you pick which

Poll?

[randylahey]

aka...you’re just making shit up to feed your narrative

common sense = getting vaccinated (hence, the overwhelming majority of the global population is in favor of vaccination)

you’re either straight up dishonest, or just not very bright (or both). i’ll let you pick which

What about that bolded statement do you think isn't true?

lol

good try

i guess you’re not going to admit you made it up

I'm trying to get you to back up your statement. Its common sense. Or do you think the majority of people have an active covid infection at all times? Surely you can't think that, but here you are arguing

[randylahey]

Several things are not true.

First of all, when Covid19 emerged, everyone was susceptible. Covid19 is highly contagious. Delta became even moreso.

You clearly don't understand epidemiology or how it works. That's why you should defer to the experts, the epidemiologists on this.

With an infectious disease, a small reduction in infection rate can result in an enormous difference you're dealing with logarithmic growth, not linear. It's not just about reducing the rate of transmission from on person to others, it's the impact that has on how many people are infected + how many people they infect + how many people they infect and so on.

Go grab a calculator and enter 3 X 3...then multiply that by 3 and repeat it 10 times, you get about 60,000. No do the same thing for 2. You only get a little over 1,000.

So, if masks reduce the number of people you most likely infect from 3 to 2, that seems like a modest reduction, 33%. But you can see how huge a difference it made.

It's not a perfect control, but all you have to do is look at influenza cases to see how much of an impact wearing masks and other mitigation efforts had on a respiratory pathogen. The flu season was the lowest it's ever been.

Man you are dramatic. The point being the odds of any one person giving another one person covid are really low. If that person were to get covid, the odds of them getting sick or dying are also really low. To most people that is reassuring. Your own statistics back both of these statements. But to you it is somehow a major cause for concern

dude, you’re just flat out wrong

if your premise were correct, covid woulda been a blip on the radar...not a global pandemic that has last more than 1.5 years and killed more than 4.8 million people globally

4.8 million is a blip on the radar tho. Out of 8 billion. I dont think you really understand just how big 8 billion is.

Then factor turnover rate into it. Globally about 300,000 people are born every day, and about 160,000 people die everyday. so if you do the math you realize 4.8 million people die globally in an average month. This isn't some absurd number over almost 2 years. We know most covid deaths are people with other complications as well

[Deleted User 89]

What about that bolded statement do you think isn't true?

lol

good try

i guess you’re not going to admit you made it up

I'm trying to get you to back up your statement. Its common sense. Or do you think the majority of people have an active covid infection at all times? Surely you can't think that, but here you are arguing

and i’ve been trying to get you to provide ANY sort of support for a wide array of your statements in this thread, but apparently you’re scared

the FACT is that we’ll never really know the true level of infection because testing is such a shit show. all we know for certain is the positivity rate of those being tested, which has varied widely over time and across geography

but that’s not even the point...the point is that you’re making shit up (as has been the case through this thread for you) to fit your narrative. you’ve done it for masks, you’ve done it for impacts to children, and for a host of other components to the pandemic

all you ever offer is opinion without substantiation. unless your opinion can be verified, you don’t get to just claim “common sense” and expect to be taken seriously. it’s also not common sense if nobody agrees with you, which is the case for the majority of your assertions. your train of thought might be common in your own circles, but not in the broader reaches of society, either here in the US or globally

[Deleted User 89]

Man you are dramatic. The point being the odds of any one person giving another one person covid are really low. If that person were to get covid, the odds of them getting sick or dying are also really low. To most people that is reassuring. Your own statistics back both of these statements. But to you it is somehow a major cause for concern

dude, you’re just flat out wrong

if your premise were correct, covid woulda been a blip on the radar...not a global pandemic that has last more than 1.5 years and killed more than 4.8 million people globally

4.8 million is a blip on the radar tho. Out of 8 billion. I dont think you really understand just how big 8 billion is.

Then factor turnover rate into it. Globally about 300,000 people are born every day, and about 160,000 people die everyday. so if you do the math you realize 4.8 million people die globally in an average month. This isn't some absurd number over almost 2 years. We know most covid deaths are people with other complications as well

again, and this has been pointed out numerous times, you can’t distill everything down to deaths simply to try and prove your point

also, the impacts from covid are WITH all of the safety and mitigation efforts...you know, the things you seem to take such issue with (masks, vaccines, social measures)

why do insist on leaving these factors out of your arguments?

[Overlander]

Is there a possibility that Randy be left alone to argue with himself?

[twocoach]

Covid ties right into this culture war we've been seeing in our country. Everything covid related at this point is about the culture war, not the virus. Most people are just too stubborn or too stupid to try to find any middle ground

COVID mandates are about public health. Freedum responses to those mandates are political. And yes, there are also people who oppose these out of a true lack of information/wariness of our government. But those responses are not politically motivated.

One end of the solution spectrum is to do absolutely nothing and pretend covid doesn't exist. Models show that likely would have resulted in millions of US deaths. The other end of the spectrum is an extended lockdown that continues until there are zero covid cases reported anywhere in the US. The small, half assed lockdown that we did proved what the devastating consequences of that would be. Wearing masks and getting a vaccination so that the economy can function and society can go about their lives in as close to a normal fashion as possible IS the middle ground but the freedum folks have chosen opposition at all costs, including their lives.

[MICHHAWK]

fact: almost all new cases of people that i personally know, are people that are fully vaxxed.

[ousdahl]

That sucks.

Are any of the cases severe?

[Wiff]

I don't profess to know it all, but after even a cursory reading of this thread, I am certain that Randy is not only a complete imbecile, but is also a troll. And, although I don't know the guy personally (thank fuck), I'm pretty confident in going out on a limb and saying that he is a total piece of shit of a human being.

[Deleted User 887]

fact: almost all new cases of people that i personally know, are people that are fully vaxxed.

fact: ALL "new cases" of people that I personally know who are fully vaccinated have recovered.
fact: Several cases of people that I personally knew who were not vaccinated - died.
Hmmmm.

[zsn]

Alright randy, if 4.8 million lives are really that trivial to you how about we just get rid of the population of North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Idaho? Or maybe Alabama or Louisiana? That’s roughly 4.8 million people.

[sdoyel]