next soccer question

[pdub]

A win in Canada would basically clinch a spot for us.
Hope McKennie isn't limited.

[Cascadia]

Costa Rica taking down Panama last night was a nice result for the USMNT.

4th place Panama hosts Jamaica on Sunday but then travels to Mexico on Wednesday.

5th place Costa Rica has two road games against Mexico and Jamaica.

If USMNT beats Canada and Mexico wins their two home games, pdub is right that a spot is nearly locked up. USMNT finished this round of qualifying against 8th (last) place Honduras in Minnesota. That has to be considered a near lock for 3 points.

So a little luck and the standing should look something like.

24 - USA
23 - Mexico
22 - Canada

17 - Panama (giving them a win at Jamaica)

12 - Costa Rica (giving them a loss at Jamaica)
10 - Jamaica
7 - El Salvador
4 - Honduras


That would be 7 point cushion over 4th place Panama. USA hosts Panama (in Orlando which is a kind of odd) in the final round of qualifying.

So, yeah, huge opportunity on Sunday against Canada.

[NewtonHawk11]

If you are the US, you want the last window of games to be irrelevant. At Mexico, home vs Panama and at Costa Rica. Make those games not matter as much. Have it locked up before then and then have that final window be when you're playing guys that you're trying to develop, Sargent, Busio, Weah, Ferrera, Musah, Pepi, De La Fuente, Cannon and more.

Go win these next 2 games.

[UnholyLivingDead]

The math I read going in to the window said 21.2 essentially clinches a top 3 spot for the US. With a 3-game window, there are plenty of points available to push well above that number. A win last night was a good start.

Edit:

Here's the guy I have been following as he tracks the necessary points and desired results of the other games.

https://the18.com/en/soccer-news/what-u ... 22-updated

[NewtonHawk11]

Thanks for that link. Always curious how the math adds up. Get 6 points in next 2 games and the top 3 is a lock, it seems.

[NewtonHawk11]

Is there any benefit from being the top qualifier compared to the 3rd qualifier? Does it go by how you finished in each qualifying group or is WC drawing based off of FIFA rankings.

[pdub]

I've said from the start, you'd need about 1.7 points per game or 23 points to qualify.
We need 5 more points in our last 5 games to feel 100% confident we are in.

So a win v Canada would basically wrap it up.
You get home games v Honduras and Panama - you are getting at least 2 points from those.

And then away games v Mexico and Costa Rica.

[pdub]

But a tie v Canada would still put us in a good spot.

[Cascadia]

Is there any benefit from being the top qualifier compared to the 3rd qualifier? Does it go by how you finished in each qualifying group or is WC drawing based off of FIFA rankings.

No advantage tied directly to where you finish. There is an advantage tied to your FIFA ranking so winning more matches helps in that regard

[pdub]

Ideally we get into the 2nd pot ( if they are doing seeding like last WC ) which means we are a top 15 team ( by FIFA ranking ) in the draw.

Right now we are 11th so we are on pace.
I'm not sure if we would be able to get into the 1st pot at this point ( top 7 teams ).

[Cascadia]

Yeah, getting into Pot 1 would be extremely difficult. Would probably require winning nearly every match of 2022. Could probably lose a match at Mexico and maybe draw a match or two on the road. With Qatar being one of the eight Pot 1 teams, the USMNT would have to jump Brazil, Argentina or 1 of the 5 best European teams. That's really hard to do with the current FIFA ranking system.

Staying in Pot 2 is the mission.

[Deleted User 863]

I am excited for the next decade of US soccer. Come a long way since the 90s.

[NewtonHawk11]

Crazy that the oldest guy out there in the starting lineup last night was Zimmerman, and he is 28, and a backup for Miles Robinson, who is 24.

[pdub]

Our future looks very good.
And a large part of it, despite naysayers, has to do with the improvement of the MLS.

[Cascadia]

I’m an MLS season ticket holder for 12 years and follow the league very closely.

The bright future of the USMNT has very little to do with the development of MLS.

The future is bright because all of our good young players are either skipping or leaving MLS.

[pdub]

Fail.

We wouldn't be in this position without the MLS.

Once again, big swing and miss from our boy Cascadia ( naysayers I was speaking of ).

[Cascadia]

Fail.

We wouldn't be in this position without the MLS.

Once again, big swing and miss from our boy Cascadia ( naysayers I was speaking of ).

You have no idea what you're talking about. Sorry

[pdub]

Before the MLS we had players on our roster who had part time jobs because their salary from soccer wasnt enough. Now the league is lucrative enough to have athletes at a young age choose soccer over other sports. It's also blossomed talent -- many players over seas got to show off their stuff in the league. And we still have some core players year in year out who play exclusively in the MLS and succeed for the USMNT.

If the league hadnt improved and/or failed, we wouldn't have advanced in 2010 or 14. We may not have even qualified.

[Deleted User 863]

I’m an MLS season ticket holder for 12 years and follow the league very closely.

The bright future of the USMNT has very little to do with the development of MLS.

The future is bright because all of our good young players are either skipping or leaving MLS.

...but....i think the MLS has made soccer more appealing as a sport to young athletes in the US. Instead of kids only being able to watch overseas teams they have American teams, sometimes close by. We drove to KC numerous times from central IL to watch the KC Wiz.

And maybe it's not necessarily that the players themselves "need" the MLS skillwise, although that's an entirely different debate....but i think the MLS has indirectly & directly helped grow the game for young soccer players so that there is a bigger talent pool being developed.

[Deleted User 863]

It's an impossible thing to judge, so we can all dig our heels in and go in circles all day...but I think the rise in popularity of MLS timeline/trend graph would look relatively similar to the USMNT improvement timeline/trend graph.

Maybe related? Maybe not?