Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

[Deleted User 863]

And Ousdahl, just in case you didn't realize, Vacancy rate only factors in rentable units. Not owner occupied homes/units.

[ousdahl]

The Census Bureau considers any home unoccupied on April 1 — census day — to be “vacant,” so the definition includes unoccupied secondary homes and rentals, abandoned or foreclosed homes, seasonal migrants quarters and investment properties, in addition to empty homes that are for sale

yeah, maybe it's a difficult metric to calculate accurately.

but still, in some macro, it seems like there may be more vacant homes than homeless.

and I don't think that includes things like vacant commercial spaces that could be repurposed, either.

[PhDhawk]

The Census Bureau considers any home unoccupied on April 1 — census day — to be “vacant,” so the definition includes unoccupied secondary homes and rentals, abandoned or foreclosed homes, seasonal migrants quarters and investment properties, in addition to empty homes that are for sale

yeah, maybe it's a difficult metric to calculate accurately.

but still, in some macro, it seems like there may be more vacant homes than homeless.

and I don't think that includes things like vacant commercial spaces that could be repurposed, either.

I know, for example, in places like Manhattan, there are a lot of foreigners who will buy an apartment and leave it unoccupied as either an investment, or as a pied et terre that they use as their de facto hotel a couple weeks out of the year. I'd have no problem taxing that, I'm not sure how you accurately regulate that, though. Is anyone gonna claim they leave it unoccupied? And what determines occupancy...they can just have their kid stay there over the summer or something to get around it. But this is something that has been shown to drive up property and rental prices.

On the other hand, how much of this is say an upper-middle class family that has a lakehouse they spend ~ 4 weeks of the year at? I mean, that's something that is only used as a vacation house. So, why tax them? It doesn't benefit anyone for then NOT to own it...you'd just be taking away some of their fun. In that case I wouldn't support it.

[TDub]

Canada banned foreigners from buying new homes to specifically combat that issue.

[japhy]

among other things we could discuss...

what do we think about something along the lines of a "vacancy tax?"

That concept is new to me today.

cuz apparently there are around 500-600k or so identified as "homeless" in Merica, but around 16 million (around 1 in every 10) vacant homes...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/real ... state.html

I think that is called a property tax. I already pay property taxes on every piece of vacant dirt, or building; occupied or unoccupied that I own. If it is occupied I pay taxes on the rent collected and on the extra utilities used.

If the problem is affordable housing, why not focus on building/providing affordable housing? Do you really think that having an affordable housing tax going to local or State governments and then letting them figure it out is really the most efficient way to solve the problem? They are building affordable housing in Salida, I just saw the homes going up last week when I drove through. They are about to do it in the San Luis Valley on 90 acres owned by the Town of Center. What are the people in those places doing that you are not?

[KUTradition]

just curious, japhy, but who is “they”? (the ones doing the building)

here, the situation is supposedly being remedied legislatively…but not by doing the smart thing and actually messing with zoning. they’re just throwing money at the problem

[japhy]

just curious, japhy, but who is “they”? (the ones doing the building)

here, the situation is supposedly being remedied legislatively…but not by doing the smart thing and actually messing with zoning. they’re just throwing money at the problem

From what I have seen it is a mix of entities. Some public, some private and sometimes a mix of both. In Pagosa Springs they was a group of private citizens that formed a small corp that bought land and built houses for themselves and sold a few in a development. They couldn't afford regular housing in a subdivision, so they formed a housing union for lack of a better term and built their own small simple subdivision.

There are lots of "they"s out there doing projects and building communities. They are not waiting for some sort of huge disruptive change in the system. They are figuring out how the system works and looking for the cracks in the sidewalk that has just enough dirt in it for something to grow and they are going to work and planting seeds. They are making small scale changes and improvements in their communities by banding together with like minded people who share their drive/skills/money and commitment and they are making their own changes at whatever scale they can achieve.

You can talk all you want about how a system should change. But the people already in charge of the system have no reason to give a fuck about suggested changes. If you don't have the means to change the system, create your own. Figure out how money and real estate and construction work and make your own community in your own way. You may have to adapt your ideas from what you want, to what you can get, but that is how it starts.

[japhy]

Here's one in California.

https://brownstone.live

[TDub]

.5% interest rate hike today. Thats a huge 1 day jump

[KUTradition]

thanks, joe

[DrPepper]

Here's one in California.

https://brownstone.live

Very interesting. I looked at the Palo Alto house (is that what you call it?). 8 people. 1 very large closet. 1 bathroom (that I could find). 1 refrigerator. I love how "built in community" is billed as a plus.
I am so blessed that my spot in this world included (modest) generational wealth and great public schools.

[japhy]

The standard of housing is going to change in the next decade in response to both economic factors as well as environmental. You won't have water for a lawn in the West, you will be installing AC in the North. The shift to "communal amenities" will be part of that as well. It all sounds like a pain in the ass but when it becomes necessary, the transition isn't as bad as it sounds.

For our little group working in the Empire there has only been one working bathroom at any one time for over two years. It has always been in one of our buildings. So you get up in the morning, you make coffee, and you receive or send a text to someone next door asking, "are you up yet? I need to take a shit." If you use an exclamation point after "shit" then they know you are serious and time is of the essence.

There was one refrigerator and one microwave and one set of dishes for everyone to use. Often we ate dinner at the same time and we had to wash dishes in the the building next door cuz that was where the kitchen sink was.

When we get there on Sunday of this week there will be three small working bathrooms and three minimal functioning kitchens. And everyone will have their privacy. But lounge space is still at a minimum out there so we still have a community "living/rumpus" room. We had to move the Spud Lounge and in it's new configuration it is the Church of St. Stevieboy, the patron saint of audio equipment and humungous blue couches. It might seem like it is a pain to have to share the living room every night but after a day of hard labor there is a sense of community that we don't have back at our regular home. We discussed this a few weeks ago when we were all out there. We seem to have more friends and have more face to face contact with folks due to our shared living room such as it is. Some aspects of the community space movement may not turn out to be so bad. And it is a lot cheaper than hanging out at a bar together.





I have no clue who these old people are but they seem happy to attend the Saturday night service. They may have already partaken of the sacred herb.





Home and what that means is really a matter of perspective. Not everyone would find our version of home comfortable but it feels like home to us.

[KUTradition]

woah…red light district

[Overlander]

woah…red light district

Don’t ever question the vibe of the Spud Lounge, nor the motives of the attendees

[japhy]

woah…red light district

I bought those years ago at Sammy Davis Jr's estate sale, they were in his penthouse suite in Vegas. They emit a very spiritually flamboyant light. It's the little touches that make a house a home.

[TDub]

I like the OSB flooring personally

[jhawks99]

Needs a few velvet Elvises and dogs shooting pool.

[defixione]

Don't know when you took our picture, is that your new CC cam? Personally, my favorite part of the Spud Lounge was the beachball basketball game we played. It's easier for me to dunk with the hoop at 40 in.

[japhy]

I like the OSB flooring personally

There is a term I learned from the architect Ron Rael that is the both the construction philosophy as well as an aesthetic in the Empire. "Troche y moche", it basically means use whatever you got to build things you need. My family is Bohemian from Northern Iowa and that is how we have always made things we needed as well, so it is easy to fall into the local way of doing shit. The french doors in the background were picked up off Craigslist. Kolbe doors, 8 foot tall with the high altitude breather tubes. I drove out into the middle of the plains near Calhan CO one night in a Uhaul truck with $2500 cash in my pocket and waited by a bunch of old abandoned trailers for a guy to come unlock a gate and complete the sale/pick up the doors. It was such a sketchy deal when it came down that I had to go. Because if I lived to tell the story it was gonna be a good one. Much of what is going into the construction was sourced via Craigslist or salvaged from parts of buildings being torn down to get the materials. We have an incredible set of two tone yellow St. Charles steel cabinets that came out of a mid century home in Colorado Springs sitting in our garage there that will be our kitchen when we get the residence side of the project completed. The OSB will eventually have carpet tiles covering it. But for now they would just get dirty so we just walk on the OSB.

[TDub]

oh, and just so you know that wasn't meant to be a dig at it, juat an observation.

I dont know about troche y moche...usually we just call that Farm style or Ranch built. Most places could use less opulence and reuse more.