Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

[jhawks99]

As someone right in the middle of a move, it sux.

[Overlander]

Does anyone remember Lobster being a complete cunt about me turning my Palm Springs property at a profit to a “poor sap”?

That “poor sap” sold the same property, for $110k more than I sold it to them.

I guess I won’t go to hell after all. (At least, not for owning a property and selling it at a profit)

[ousdahl]

yea real estate is nice and all, but how much did you make selling masks to your in-laws?

and do you have a pic of the deposit receipt to prove it?

[japhy]

E. I am 56 years old - with a heart condition. I would like to retire in the next 5/7/10 years and if/when I do, I would probably like to move out of Chicago/Illinois.
F. My mother is 89 years old. Part of why I live where I do is to be close to her. She very well may outlive me but if/when she dies, despite my job being in Chicago, I will no longer feel "tied" to Chicago and am free to move to another city.

We started our retirement home search tour in that 7-10 year out range. It was a good exercise. We set criteria; want to be in a smaller city with college but access to big city via public transportation, have access to outdoors activities, good hospitals, stable utilities ( no brownouts ), lower insurance ( no hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, wildfires), housing prices likely to increase, property taxes low.

Once we had your list of things we wanted, we visited two towns every year and spent a week there. Going to coffee shops, parks, concerts, museums and grocery store, you can learn a lot about a place in a week. We hit Racine and Kenosha WI, Duluth MN, Tacoma and Bellingham WA, Eugene and Corvallis OR, Albuquerque NM, Ft Collins CO. Eventually we ended up in Colorado Springs.

We bought 6 years before I retire cuz prices aren't going down. We rent a room in the place to someone whose rent covers the monthly expenses of owning the place. One upside is when the raccoon got in our attic last month and decided to remove the can light in the kitchen to see "where that great smell was coming from", the tenant called and we had someone remove the pest ( raccoon not tenant ). The tenant gets the run of half the house, we have a bedroom there and can come and go whenever we please. He could not rent a whole house in our neighborhood for $550 a month and it would cost us more than that to have someone come by and shovel sidewalks and cut weeds and check everything out multiple times a week. Buy when the market is right even if you can't move in right away. The housing market is tight enough in many places so you can make enough money to cover expenses by renting it out and live elsewhere. When the times comes for retirement we will already have a fully furnished place in another city when we sell our place in KC.

My daughter is in Chicago now and has been for two years. Her company just told her she can work remote if she wants. Her big multi year project now is in Denver where she just moved from. I have been telling her if she moves back to CO that I think Pueblo is the place to buy. I also like Albuquerque NM. Get in before it becomes the next place to be. Pueblo is what Colorado Springs was about 10-15 years ago. I looked at the State's long term plans for daily commuter rail service. As of today everyone who commutes from the Springs and Pueblo to Denver has to drive I-25. In less than 10 years they will be riding a commuter train on existing AMTRAK rails. Think about how different it would be to take the train every day from Barrington to the Loop for work, as opposed to driving that route every day. Houses were cheaper in Barrington before rail service.

I looked at the Chicago condo market several years back. I don't like it as an asset. I just don't see the appreciation. I still see lots of growth potential in specific markets for real estate in the mountain west. Our house in the Springs increased in value 45% in two years. And the Springs recently started appearing on lots of lists of most desirable places to live in the U.S. My wife thinks of it as a retirement safety plan. If she ever needed to get her hands on money quick, she could sell the place in the future for a good chunk of money and downsize. She is younger than me so she is always envisioning her life after me.....that should probably be a red flag I suppose.

Anyway make your list of priorities and go visit some smaller, currently less desirable places on the edge of very desirable cities.

[japhy]

I think you'd be happier in the new apartment in the same building. For now. And the move would be easier than most since your stuff is moving within your current building and not needing to be loaded up and hauled to another building. You'd have 2 bedroom windows and the cost isn't too different.

Don't buy a place and then do a 30yr mortgage on somewhere you only plan to live 5-7 years because the interest is front loaded.

Good luck G.

This guy gets it.

[Deleted User 863]

Looked at 2 apartments this morning. I'm torn. Both had positives and negatives. Both a small upgrade over my current apartment for various reasons - but my current apartment is really just fine.
That being the case, I'm thinking it might be best to stay put - for now.
Unfortunate thing is my bonus/compensation/raise(?) doesn't happen until mid March and hasn't been determined yet. If I knew today what it will be - and it is substantial, I would probably be more inclined to move and take on a rent increase.
Sorry to have rambled on - on here - but I think I am typing and sharing my conundrum to sort of put things "on paper" and think out loud.

Found your perfect spot. You're welcome. Lots of windows.

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

Thanks for the show! A little out of my budget. I think it's actually really nice but I would be leery of sitting out at /swimming in pool.

It's crazy to me how there are some places on the market for 2 or 3 million that I think are nicer than places on the market for more than 10 million. I'll never understand the inconsistencies.

[jfish26]

E. I am 56 years old - with a heart condition. I would like to retire in the next 5/7/10 years and if/when I do, I would probably like to move out of Chicago/Illinois.
F. My mother is 89 years old. Part of why I live where I do is to be close to her. She very well may outlive me but if/when she dies, despite my job being in Chicago, I will no longer feel "tied" to Chicago and am free to move to another city.

We started our retirement home search tour in that 7-10 year out range. It was a good exercise. We set criteria; want to be in a smaller city with college but access to big city via public transportation, have access to outdoors activities, good hospitals, stable utilities ( no brownouts ), lower insurance ( no hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, wildfires), housing prices likely to increase, property taxes low.

Once we had your list of things we wanted, we visited two towns every year and spent a week there. Going to coffee shops, parks, concerts, museums and grocery store, you can learn a lot about a place in a week. We hit Racine and Kenosha WI, Duluth MN, Tacoma and Bellingham WA, Eugene and Corvallis OR, Albuquerque NM, Ft Collins CO. Eventually we ended up in Colorado Springs.

We bought 6 years before I retire cuz prices aren't going down. We rent a room in the place to someone whose rent covers the monthly expenses of owning the place. One upside is when the raccoon got in our attic last month and decided to remove the can light in the kitchen to see "where that great smell was coming from", the tenant called and we had someone remove the pest ( raccoon not tenant ). The tenant gets the run of half the house, we have a bedroom there and can come and go whenever we please. He could not rent a whole house in our neighborhood for $550 a month and it would cost us more than that to have someone come by and shovel sidewalks and cut weeds and check everything out multiple times a week. Buy when the market is right even if you can't move in right away. The housing market is tight enough in many places so you can make enough money to cover expenses by renting it out and live elsewhere. When the times comes for retirement we will already have a fully furnished place in another city when we sell our place in KC.

My daughter is in Chicago now and has been for two years. Her company just told her she can work remote if she wants. Her big multi year project now is in Denver where she just moved from. I have been telling her if she moves back to CO that I think Pueblo is the place to buy. I also like Albuquerque NM. Get in before it becomes the next place to be. Pueblo is what Colorado Springs was about 10-15 years ago. I looked at the State's long term plans for daily commuter rail service. As of today everyone who commutes from the Springs and Pueblo to Denver has to drive I-25. In less than 10 years they will be riding a commuter train on existing AMTRAK rails. Think about how different it would be to take the train every day from Barrington to the Loop for work, as opposed to driving that route every day. Houses were cheaper in Barrington before rail service.

I looked at the Chicago condo market several years back. I don't like it as an asset. I just don't see the appreciation. I still see lots of growth potential in specific markets for real estate in the mountain west. Our house in the Springs increased in value 45% in two years. And the Springs recently started appearing on lots of lists of most desirable places to live in the U.S. My wife thinks of it as a retirement safety plan. If she ever needed to get her hands on money quick, she could sell the place in the future for a good chunk of money and downsize. She is younger than me so she is always envisioning her life after me.....that should probably be a red flag I suppose.

Anyway make your list of priorities and go visit some smaller, currently less desirable places on the edge of very desirable cities.

This doesn't exactly qualify as "cheap" or even "less desirable," but I think Rochester (MN) is poised to grow into something like...Columbus? In the next 10-15 years.

[DrPepper]

Keep the current apt. The great living room view and light outweighs the extra bedroom window.
Ask mgmt to do some updates if they haven’t in the 10+ years you’ve been there. Maybe you’d appreciate your current apt even more. If they don’t, do what is allowed yourself since you have 5+ yrs there planned. Hire a decorator/pro with your raise.
I would not buy a condo in Chicagoland with your plans.

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

Keep the current apt. The great living room view and light outweighs the extra bedroom window.
Ask mgmt to do some updates if they haven’t in the 10+ years you’ve been there. Maybe you’d appreciate your current apt even more. If they don’t, do what is allowed yourself since you have 5+ yrs there planned. Hire a decorator/pro with your raise.
I would not buy a condo in Chicagoland with your plans.

Just now reading your response. Thanks for the input/suggestion/s!

[TDub]

Rates climb to just under 7% this week.

Glad I already got my house sold. Demand is still outpacing supply but, the number of qualifying buyers must be falling

[Shirley]

Rates climb to just under 7% this week.

Glad I already got my house sold. Demand is still outpacing supply but, the number of qualifying buyers must be falling

I don't know how we get out of this situation easily. People with fixed-rate loans at ~ 3% have no incentive to move and take on a new loan at twice the interest rate, which in addition to the usual market forces, depresses the availability of housing even more.

“The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase,” the Labor Department noted.

Selling your house pushes the ? of what you're doing next, as in moving to another house, apt. etc.

If you've already revealed that I'll pay you back for having to repeat it, it's possible I missed it.

[TDub]

Rates climb to just under 7% this week.

Glad I already got my house sold. Demand is still outpacing supply but, the number of qualifying buyers must be falling

I don't know how we get out of this situation easily. People with fixed-rate loans at ~ 3% have no incentive to move and take on a new loan at twice the interest rate, which in addition to the usual market forces, depresses the availability of housing even more.

“The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 90 percent of the increase,” the Labor Department noted.

Selling your house pushes the ? of what you're doing next, as in moving to another house, apt. etc.

If you've already revealed that I'll pay you back for having to repeat it, it's possible I missed it.

Last fall we had an opportunity to buy a place with some acreage out in the middle of nowhere (which...we already lived in what most on here would qualify as middle of nowhere but it was just outside of the town and neighbors all around and only a 1.5 acre parcel). The new place is pretty decent ways away from anything and really tough to find anything out here and with land around here....its already all privately owned and nobody sells. When it the rare spots come up (everything stays in families etc and most has for 100 years) its gone before it ever hits the market. This place is no different....our friends bought it several years ago before it hit the market and we bought it from them without it ever being listed. It needs some work...but its a nice spot and I happen to be fairly capable of remodeling and repairs to cut costs. I love it out here. Nobody around....quiet, coyote songs for lullabies at night . Deer for neighbors.


Anyway, knowing that it was a rare chance to get something closer to where we wanted to be i took some fairly scary risks (to me anyway, im pretty hard wired to be risk averse financially anyway). to make all the money work and really needed to get my house sold within the first 12 months (so, November) or or I was going to have some real issues to figure out. I didnt get it updated and listed until late spring so I was already behind. But it sold fairly quickly and without too much fanfare and with no real estate agents, so all around its working out. But it wasn't without a fair amount of stress and hair pulling and sleepless nights.

[Shirley]

Congratulations TDub, I'm glad it appears to be working out, and appreciate you sharing some details.

I'm sure it was the cause of a huge amount of stress, stress you could have eliminated easily by merely stepping back, and lowering your sights. Voilà, problem solved! Except, not. But, when things do come together and you realize the fruits of committing yourself to something and keeping the goal in mind as you work to achieve it over time, it makes the reward even sweeter.

I appreciate your desire for being away from people so there's less hassle and it's sublimely quiet. I lived in an old farmhouse outside of Wichita for 5 years while completing my undergraduate degree. The owner still raised black angus bulls, and worked the fields to grow silage to feed them. So we were surrounded by all the farm implements, tractors, a combine, etc., and it was great to live out there.

It was away, but close enough that I could get to school in < 15 minutes driving mostly dirt roads at 55-60 mph. Close enough, that before I moved there two bodies had been dumped on the property, and one more woman was left for dead in the field across the street while I was living there. Good times!

Good luck, as you continue to construct your dream.

[japhy]

Let's just say, I am well connected to people in the know, and they told me about the coming rate cut in July way back in the early spring. We will be seeing another rate cut of 25 or 50 points in September. I'll be bumping this thread after the crash happens and laugh at all you who get your info from the news.

Sometimes I miss sQuirt, and his endearing laugh. Was it just 4 years ago?

Home sales seem to be going back up in Colorado Springs again. Prices and sales leveled out for about 6 months. Two houses on my block are on the market now for 50% more than I bought mine for in 2021. I don't like either of those houses as much as ours. Our streak of being in the right place at the right time goes back almost 15 years now.

It is a 9 hour drive to the Springs, we spent Labor Day weekend there. It leaves a lot of time to think and talk.

Annie and I both know a number of younger people who are lamenting the lack of ability to buy a home right now. We both bought houses in our 20's. We bought what we could afford, interest rates weren't any better back then than they are now. Annie's first house was 750 sf in the flood plain in Fargo ND. Mine was 1200 sf in the NE neighborhood in KCMO. My former father-in-law asked on his first visit, "why are you living in a black neighborhood?". One thing we discussed on our drive was that none of the people we know who lament their lack of ability to buy a home, are looking at places like the first homes we bought. We both gutted our first homes down to the studs and built them back up again, living in a construction project. Editor's note: We still live in construction projects it seems. You would think we like that, but we don't, we just seem to be in a constant self induced state of flux.

Why would anyone think their first home was going to be their dream home? Their forever home? If the market is tough to get into, why would you look at the houses that everyone wants? Why not look at the houses that no one seems to want, in the places fewer people in your income level want to live? We have always thought of houses as vehicles to build equity and bought accordingly until now. And now we have the equity to buy in the places we want to live the rest of our days. And all of those previous years gave us an appreciation for places/people/things that are a little rough around the edges.

One of Annie's coworkers was lamenting the lack of affordable housing in her desired part of Johnson County KS close to her job. We both thought, "why would anyone think those neighborhoods were for first time homebuyers?".

My first home got broken into I think 5 times if memory serves. My truck got stolen from the street out front twice. I remember my daughter's excitement when they came home from daycare to see that "we got a new TV!". They admitted years later that they knew it was because our TV got stolen while they were at school.

If I were buying today in Colorado, or was an old fuck retired doctor living in Florida looking down the barrel of another Category 5 hurricane, I would be looking at homes in Pueblo CO right now. If I was a wanting to retire contractor living in Lawrence KS, I would do the same. The most affordable city in the Front Range. It is where Colorado Springs was 10-15 years ago with respect to downtown redevelopment. When the light rail is extended south from Denver, the houses in Pueblo will be worth 2X what you pay for them now. If I wanted to go to the City for the day, I would just catch the public transport Bustang on one of it's daily scheduled trips.

I mean what retired doctor with grandkids, who will want to visit in the summer and on holidays wouldn't enjoy a place like this within walking distance to the park? https://www.redfin.com/CO/Pueblo/1001-W ... /132237907

And if I was in my 30's and no kids and had a steady paycheck I would jump on something like this.
https://www.redfin.com/CO/Pueblo/1217-E ... /132840855
I could afford to drive to the mountains every weekend and fish with the money I would save on rent.

But that's just me.

[TDub]

this is not the only issue, there are deeper seeded issues stacked against the younger generation but;

Social Media tells young people that they "deserve" their dream home without any effort or sweat equity to get built up to that level. Instead of trying to figure out where to start they instead become keyboard warriors and start their lengthy list if blames


we have a couple of those floating around these parts in fact.

[TDub]

8% rates now. Fun times.

your 400k dollar house went from costing you somewhere in the neighborhood of 690k to 1.4 million in the last 2-2.5 years.

[KUTradition]

and then there’s the insurance issue

[TDub]

tough market with house prices already inflated to their current levels.



The catch is, the housing market can't crash really. There's tons of people sitting and waiting....as soon as interest drop at all again the demand is going to sky rocket and cause prices to increase...again. It's a tough road ahoe without a real great, gentle exit ramp back to balance.

[KUTradition]

prices haven’t dropped at all here, and in most areas have continued to increase

the wife and i spoke to a retired provost that now lives just east of Heber City. they bought their house 6 years ago for $700K and are about to list it for $1.7M

the house we rent is a relative shit hole for our neighborhood, but is valued at $500K (house at the end of the street sold last year for $1.2M)

exit, stage left