2023-2024 lineup

[pdub]

And with your opinion, you'd be wrong.
So round we go.

[randylahey]

I think withey also broke the ncaa tourney record for blocks in one tourney. Like 37 or something. Withey was unbelievable defensively. I understand people arguing him over Dave. But Witheys offense was not good lol and that really showed his season year when trob was gone l

Withey and McCormack are about as different as 2 centers can be. Hard to compare

[jfish26]

I think withey also broke the ncaa tourney record for blocks in one tourney. Like 37 or something. Withey was unbelievable defensively. I understand people arguing him over Dave. But Witheys offense was not good lol and that really showed his season year when trob was gone l

Withey and McCormack are about as different as 2 centers can be. Hard to compare

Withey's ORtg in his senior (no Thomas) year was higher than Dave's in Dave's senior year.

Same for Offensive Box Plus/Minus.

Same for Offensive Win Shares.

Same for PER.

Same for True Shooting % and Effective FG%.

Withey averaged ~1.5 fewer points/40, but he also did it on 2.5 fewer FGA/40.

This is my point: at worst they're more or less even on offense. Dave was fine on defense. Withey was historically great.

If you want Dave to hang a "BETTER IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME" banner, that's fine. But they're just not very close, qualitatively, as players. Withey was significantly better.

[randylahey]

Withey was also healthy his senior year and Dave had a bad foot the whole season. Do you honestly feel withey was better offensively lol

[jfish26]

That's...what the numbers say.

I fully acknowledge that Dave had a more well-rounded offensive skillset. But whatever advantage Dave has there (which, again, does not show up in statistics), it doesn't even come close to bridging the massive difference between the two defensively.

That's why it's pretty damn hard to come up with scenarios where a championship-contending team would be better with Sr Dave than Jr/Sr Withey.

[MICHHAWK]

That's why it's pretty damn hard to come up with scenarios where a championship-contending team would be better with Sr Dave than Jr/Sr Withey.

april 2022 is a scenario that comes to mind.

[pdub]

The argument, that I thought we were having, is senior Dave vs junior Withey.
Not senior Dave v senior Withey.
Nor senior Dave vs a combo jr/sr Withey.

I concede senior Withey and I also concede Withey was definitely the better player overall when all said and done.

Honestly, if we just want to talk numbers, and we get to mix match junior and senior years, and not skillset/eyetest etc. -

player A: 13.2 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.1 APG, .7 SPG, 1 BPG, 51.3% FG. .541 Crimscore.
player B: 9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, .7 APG, .6 SPG, 3.6 BPG, 53.6% FG. .519 Crimscore.

That's pretty close right there ( and Crimscore honestly might overvalue blocks compared to PER ).

And if you don't like Crimscores, take a gander at PER:
27.4 vs 25.2 ( or senior year 27.2 )

[jfish26]

The argument, that I thought we were having, is senior Dave vs junior Withey.
Not senior Dave v senior Withey.
Nor senior Dave vs a combo jr/sr Withey.

I concede senior Withey and I also concede Withey was definitely the better player overall when all said and done.

Honestly, if we just want to talk numbers, and we get to mix match junior and senior years, and not skillset/eyetest etc. -

player A: 13.2 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.1 APG, .7 SPG, 1 BPG, 51.3% FG. .541 Crimscore.
player B: 9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, .7 APG, .6 SPG, 3.6 BPG, 53.6% FG. .519 Crimscore.

That's pretty close right there ( and Crimscore honestly might overvalue blocks compared to PER ).

And if you don't like Crimscores, take a gander at PER:
27.4 vs 25.2 ( or senior year 27.2 )

As usual, when you start playing gotcha games with numbers, you distort things beyond recognition (and fail to show your work).

Let's be adults here and compare apples to apples (and clearly show our work):

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... ack-1.html

Jr Dave, per-40: 23.3 pts (on 17.8 FGA, 56.2% true shooting), 10.6 reb, 2.0 ast, 3.0 stl-blk
Sr Dave, per-40: 19.4 pts (on 13.5 FGA, 56.9% true shooting), 12.8 reb, 1.6 ast, 2.6 stl+blk

Jr Withey, per-40: 14.5 pts (on 8.7 FGA, 61.4% true shooting), 10.2 reb, 1.2 ast, 6.8 stl+blk
Sr Withey, per-40: 17.8 pts (on 11.1 FGA, 62.1% true shooting), 11.0 reb, 1.2 ast, 6.1 stl+blk

So, the numbers bear out exactly what I've said. Dave produced a little more offensively (he took more shots), but less efficiently (he was not as successful on the shots he took). And it's not remotely close defensively (and, the best team of these four seasons was the one around Dave his senior year).

[TDub]

well this thread sure did get off track

[NewtonHawk11]

well this thread sure did get off track

Don't they all?

[TDub]

well this thread sure did get off track

Don't they all?

yea....to some extent.

[NewtonHawk11]

I am excited to see what Bill can do. But it's obvious this team needs some shooters.

Last year, Ochai, CB, Remy, Jalen were all good or decent shooters.
This year, Jalen and Gradey. No diversity in the offense in that aspect.

[TDub]

kinda surprised none of Gradey, Jalen or Kevin have announced anything officially yet

[pdub]

Here is my work:

player A is 2021 David McCormack: 13.2 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.1 APG, .7 SPG, 1 BPG, 51.3% FG. .541 Crimscore. 27.4 PER. Both PER AND Crimscore measure efficiency.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... ack-1.html
https://www.kansascrimson.com/crimscore/
Click on 2021.

player B is 2012 Jeff Withey: 9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, .7 APG, .6 SPG, 3.6 BPG, 53.6% FG. .519 Crimscore. 25.2 PER. Both PER AND Crimscore measure efficiency.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... hey-1.html
https://www.kansascrimson.com/crimscore/
Click on 2012.

[jfish26]

Here is my work:

player A is 2021 David McCormack: 13.2 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.1 APG, .7 SPG, 1 BPG, 51.3% FG. .541 Crimscore. 27.4 PER. Both PER AND Crimscore measure efficiency.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... ack-1.html
https://www.kansascrimson.com/crimscore/
Click on 2021.

player B is 2012 Jeff Withey: 9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, .7 APG, .6 SPG, 3.6 BPG, 53.6% FG. .519 Crimscore. 25.2 PER. Both PER AND Crimscore measure efficiency.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... hey-1.html
https://www.kansascrimson.com/crimscore/
Click on 2012.

Ok. The numbers you put in your post...don't like up with what's on Dave's Basketball Reference page. But no matter.

The result is the same: a coin flip as between them offensively (based on whether you value production or efficiency more), and not remotely in the same universe defensively.

That's been my point the entire time. Except in the narrowest roster situation, a reasonable person would take Withey over Dave.

[pdub]

It is not a coin flip offensively.

You are valuing complete efficiency over production - which was what led me to eventually alter my Crimscore algorithm which was largely based in efficiency.
In your mind, 18 Silvio DeSousa's 4 points at 68% FG is better than, I dunno, 07 Darrell Arthur's 9.8 points at 53.8%.

PER and Crimscore measures all of that production ( along with defensive production - i.e. the blocks that Withey is most known for ). Jr Dave is higher than junior Withey in both.

Which is to say, it's not a fact that junior Withey is better than junior Dave.
The numbers above prove my case.
I don't think junior Withey was better than senior Dave even -- but that admittedly leans more eye test and clutch moments in the NCAA tournament.

[jfish26]

It is not a coin flip offensively.

You are valuing complete efficiency over production - which was what led me to eventually alter my Crimscore algorithm which was largely based in efficiency.
In your mind, 18 Silvio DeSousa's 4 points at 68% FG is better than, I dunno, 07 Darrell Arthur's 9.8 points at 53.8%.

PER and Crimscore measures all of that production ( along with defensive production - i.e. the blocks that Withey is most known for ). Jr Dave is higher than junior Withey in both.

Which is to say, it's not a fact that junior Withey is better than junior Dave.
The numbers above prove my case.
I don't think junior Withey was better than senior Dave even -- but that admittedly leans more eye test and clutch moments in the NCAA tournament.

PER is a poor measure of impact on team defense (you will find a fair amount of support for this, if you look).

You are also - shocker - distorting sample size bias. Withey's sample size on offense is absolutely large enough to support the conclusion that he's a little less productive, and more than a little more efficient.

So, again, it's what I've said all along: let's say there are 100 possible roster constructions. Withey is the right choice in at least 90 of them.

Your boner gets all peyronied when anyone says anything remotely "negative" toward Dave, so I grant you your soft spot here. But he's just not close to as good as Withey was, on the balance.

[pdub]

All of this is a long winded way to say, I think Dave, his junior year or his senior year, was about even to junior Withey.

I've presented stats that lean one way.
You've presented stats that lean another.
That's why I think it's "About Even".

And then, even more long winded is, if you look at that long list, DMac would be one of THE best no. 2 big men KU's had -- so I disagree that he "should" have been our no. 2 big.

viewtopic.php?p=327238#p327238

If he was our no. 2 big would we have been better?
Yea, duh.

[pdub]

My god man, just compare A to B ( junior years ) and you could see why someone might lean with A.
If you can't admit that, and think all of those common statistics, including a well known and used efficiency metric that is often referred to when comparing basketball players, ( saw it a lot over the last couple years when mentioning Jokic v Embiid ) are useless, then I can't help you.

You're on your island. I'm on mine.
No one is right ( despite your boner for junior Withey ).
I think they ( jr or sr Dave v jr Withey ) are about even. There are stats to prove it.
You don't. You kinda have some vague stats to prove it. So it goes.

[jfish26]

My god man, just compare A to B ( junior years ) and you could see why someone might lean with A.
If you can't admit that, and think all of those common statistics, including a well known and used efficiency metric that is often referred to when comparing basketball players, ( saw it a lot over the last couple years when mentioning Jokic v Embiid ) are useless, then I can't help you.

You're on your island. I'm on mine.
No one is right ( despite your boner for junior Withey ).
I think he's about even. There are stats to prove it.
You don't. You kinda have some vague stats to prove it. So it goes.

There's nothing vague, except where you need it to be vague so that your horse has even the same number of legs as mine.

You've had to twist the statistics into a very, very particular pretzel to even show the players as comparable; it's probably not a good sign that you need to trot out your own proprietary metric to make this work for you. You have entirely ignored things that aren't favorable to your case (ORtg, DRtg, Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus).

If it's not poetry, at least it rhymes: the same way as McCormack would be the choice in only a significant minority of roster situations, so goes his statistical case: it only works to even show him as comparable when the cherries have been picked in the most particular way.