Let’s have a war!

[ousdahl]

^^^

This is some of the best discussion yet in this thread.

AKA this is the furthest we’ve made it without anyone accusing me of being a Putin spam bot!

I’ll try to further discuss later, when I have more time…

[ousdahl]

As has been discussed here before, if Biden had gone all-in militarily from the beginning and not waited, not only with F-16s but other weapon systems, the other countries in our coalition wouldn't have been incentivized to contribute like they are. And if your goal is to win while spending less American $, that's a win.

Not to mention that proceeding in something more aggressive that the stepwise and proportionate fashion in which we have...absolutely would be escalatory and something much closer to a true proxy war. And there are lots of valid reasons to avoid those things.

pretty sure the "stepwise and proportionate fashion" has inevitably been escalatory, too. And I dunno how this is anything less than a proxy war, either.

but, yea there totally are lots of valid reasons to avoid those things, indeed.

[ousdahl]

As has been discussed here before, if Biden had gone all-in militarily from the beginning and not waited, not only with F-16s but other weapon systems, the other countries in our coalition wouldn't have been incentivized to contribute like they are. And if your goal is to win while spending less American $, that's a win.

and yet, none less than POTUS himself somehow possessed the awareness to realize that what you're describing - going "all-in militarily" - results in World War 3.

at some point, it's just got to be wiser to think of this less in terms of incentivizing escalation for World War 3 and who's gotta pony up the $ for it, and how do we avoid World War 3 altogether.

[Shirley]

IMO, allowing Putin to succeed in Ukraine would immediately create an existential threat for a number of other countries Russia has special, nostalgic feelings for, that we are duty-bound to defend. If a win there incentivized Putin to continue his imperialism, our costs to respond would skyrocket compared to what we're spending to help Ukraine stop Putin now.

[ousdahl]

Sigh.

Before I say what I’m gonna say next, let me reiterate that our attempt at understanding the Russian perspective on their war does not endorse the invasion and occupation, nor does it imply the Russians had no other option but this war.

And trad, I haven’t forgotten about you either.

With that said, and speaking of existential threats, and before we proceed any further, and if I may ask as respectfully as I can…

May we please discuss this?



Like for real, remember the last time they tried to put their military in Cuba?

[jfish26]

What is the point you’re trying to make there? What are we discussing?

[ousdahl]

American hubris, and the (lack of) self awareness in a geopolitical sense?

[TDub]

What is the point you’re trying to make there? What are we discussing?

I think he has circled his way back around to blaming the Russian invasion of Ukraine.....on America again.

(thats kind of how this poop vortex of a thread works.....Q shouts silly things...he gets proven wrong....he ignores those discussions and moves on to what is and buts and memes and shouts other silly things....rinse/repeat)


If only we hadn't provoked Putin. Poor Potato Putin.

[ousdahl]

see, I think there's some confusion around whether I'm proven wrong; or whether I try to discuss some point and, without even attempting to discuss, get replies like "what are we discussing?" or "Q shouts silly things"

but, please, prove me wrong!

TDub, what's your reaction to that "shoe on the other foot" hypothetical illustration?

[KUTradition]

Finland and Norway, both NATO members, have been on russia’s doorstep forever…as has Turkey

why do you continue to dismiss such plain-as-day facts?

Finland actually shares the longest border with russia outside of china, so one would think they’d pose a bigger threat than Ukraine

[jfish26]

see, I think there's some confusion around whether I'm proven wrong; or whether I try to discuss some point and, without even attempting to discuss, get replies like "what are we discussing?" or "Q shouts silly things"

but, please, prove me wrong!

TDub, what's your reaction to that "shoe on the other foot" hypothetical illustration?

Ok. But what is the actual question you’re asking?

[jhawks99]

What is the point you’re trying to make there? What are we discussing?

I think he has circled his way back around to blaming the Russian invasion of Ukraine.....on America again.

(thats kind of how this poop vortex of a thread works.....Q shouts silly things...he gets proven wrong....he ignores those discussions and moves on to what is and buts and memes and shouts other silly things....rinse/repeat)


If only we hadn't provoked Putin. Poor Potato Putin.

Poop vortex? I like it, throw in some sharks and I think you have something.

[TDub]

see, I think there's some confusion around whether I'm proven wrong; or whether I try to discuss some point and, without even attempting to discuss, get replies like "what are we discussing?" or "Q shouts silly things"

but, please, prove me wrong!

TDub, what's your reaction to that "shoe on the other foot" hypothetical illustration?

dude how many goddamn times can we go over the same damn shit? you dont want a discussion, you ignore every single source and point and article that goes against your pre-detetmined thoughts that you're fabulous menes have led you to.

Nothing anyone says is going to change your mind. Otherwise we doubt be 120 pages into this.




and shoe on other foot? so...again...youre apologizing for Putin. He had to attack Ukraine...because the big bad US had bases to close to him....dont ya see? We're the bad guy...not the guy that's actually invading and killing and bombing residential areas ...lets all take a moment and put ourselves in his shoes...I mean...what should he do? NOT Invade??


this is all a fucking joke. fuck off woth all this bullshit dude. Im over it...again.

[ousdahl]

TDub, remember how upset you got when I called you a nazi?

cuz that's how I feel when you try to paint me as a Putin apologist. Again, I find it incredibly upsetting. And again, allow me to deny it; and to, again, condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And, again, the fact you struggle to distinguish valid criticism of our own foreign policy from "bad guy propaganda" is likely a testament to the effectiveness of the U.S. war machine propaganda.

and, again, and I mean it as respectfully as I can, and - ho boy, this one might make your head explode , but - I don't think I'm being "proven wrong," nor am I ignoring any sources, here. If anything, the sources may not prove what you think they prove.

but, again, please, prove me wrong! I want to have my mind changed here!

now, to elaborate, please allow me to try and catch up with all the responses I owe trad...

[ousdahl]

IIRC these areas were already independent republics that didn’t wanna be part of Ukraine anyway, which prompted the Azov paramilitaries to go all militant on those regions for years now anyway, with weapons paid for by you and me.


i don’t think this is a fair or accurate representation

since when has that ever stopped him from proclaiming such "truths"

i don’t get it

a quick google search of “history” of those regions yields ample perspectives that offer a notably different narrative

for hundreds of years, through the czars, stalin, the soviets, and now putin, there has been repeated attempts to wrestle that region away from Ukraine and ethnic Ukrainians

...exactly?

Like, for real, let's consider the history of the region here! These have been areas of conflict for centuries now. That hasn't changed.

What HAS changed, is the United States decided to get involved too; and not only get involved, but get involved less in a diplomatic way, and more in a militant way.

Rather than recognize it's a historically volatile situation and be the adult in the room and be among those world powers pushing for a peace deal, we are, and have been, pouring fuel on that fire by flooding the place with weapons...allsome.

[ousdahl]

so, who plays the parts of Finland, Poland, Sweden, Moldova, etc., in that analogy?

and what’s the misleading part? you yourself have admitted that russia is the aggressor here

I guess Finland, Poland, Sweden, Modolva, etc. plays those parts?

Yes, Russia IS the aggressor, here. I'm just not convinced Russia is the ONLY aggressor.

This reminds me of an argument I had with my narcissistic parents growing up. As things escalated, and they accused me of being the source of all the problems in their lives, and the reason for their temper tantrums; I thought I might diffuse the situation by rhetorically asking, "how many people does it take to tango?"

My dad replied by screaming, "Just one, Ousdahl...YOU!"

The trauma persists.

but, in the context of this thread, the point is...maybe it actually takes two to tango?

(sorry, dad.)

but, as far as Finland, Poland, Sweden, Moldova, etc., it's sort of a wonder Putin (fuck him, btw) didn't react sooner to the eastward expansion of of our own military presence. I mean that only as a matter of fact, cuz it wouldn't have been appropriate for him to invade those countries then, just like it wasn't appropriate to invade Ukraine in 2022.

But, here's the thing about Ukraine - it was always some last straw for Putin, and we've always known that. In choosing to escalate the tensions there via "lethal aid," we teed up a Cuban Missile Crisis sort of moment for Putin.

The point being - just like it's not appropriate for Putin to expand his military westward, maybe it isn't and wasn't appropriate for us to expand our military eastward, either.

[DCHawk1]

IMO, allowing Putin to succeed in Ukraine would immediately create an existential threat for a number of other countries

Domino Theory

[ousdahl]

how many fucking times, dude? seriously

are you that inept at googling?

you’re really doing a great randy impression, so good job

https://www.csce.gov/sites/helsinkicomm ... rendum.pdf

I can't stress this enough: sorry for the drama in this thread generally.

And sorry I come across as Randy here. I suppose if he and I have something in common, it's that we have something in common, it's that we're both challenging some mainstream narrative.

But, while Randy grinds his axe about some covid conspiracy something and cites kooky twitter hot takes in support, I've been careful to only use credible mainstream sources, like NATO and Zelensky and the POTUS himself.

And, pandemics and war are not exactly comparing apples to apples. Among other things...if, in a few years the gummint comes out like "actually yea COVID was a big lie, it was actually about shit like Halliburton LOL," and we end up having to endure several more pandemics, and each time the gummint comes out and admits false pretenses in hindsight, then maybe randy's a little more credible. But until then!

In contrast, I'm citing false pretenses about Iraq and Afghanistan and Vietnam as support for the argument that the rhetoric about Ukraine just might be a bunch of false pretenses too.

but, shit, I'm getting too wordy, and haven't even begun to respond to your best posts yet...

[ousdahl]

IMO, allowing Putin to succeed in Ukraine would immediately create an existential threat for a number of other countries

Domino Theory

^^^^^^

[ousdahl]

and, again, in the interest of not getting too wordy, I hope it's ok to just respond to your best points in this post...

from Ukraine’s perspective, an immediate ceasefire only serves to benefit russia.

Well, it's also possible that an immediate ceasefire could also benefit Ukraine, in the sense it mitigates the damage in Ukraine. A war-torn area will be that much less war-torn if the war tearing it up is deescalated.

it’s like the authors of that piece completely forgot about 2014, or 2008…

actually, the authors of that piece do make several points about 2014, and 2008 too.

the notion that putin’s desire will somehow be satiated for the longtime seems incredibly misguided and not at all supported by the realities of the current situation, or history

please refer to DC's last post in this thread.

if russia is the aggressor, why do we need to see the war through their eyes?

In diplomacy, one must attempt to see with strategic empathy, seeking to understand one’s adversaries. This is not weakness: it is wisdom.

they could’ve done any number of things to make their feelings known, instead of invading Ukraine. they easily could’ve disrupted energy supplies to Europe

among other takeaways, yea, I'm confuzzled about Nordstream too.

in an effort to force some sort of diplomatic agreement about NATO

has anything about NATO been diplomatic? that's to say, have we ever made some diplomatic attempt here? Like, "hey Putin, we'll stop expanding our military east if you stop expanding your military west?" Or, is it "hey Putin, we'll expand our military all we want, but you're not allowed to, do as we say not ask we do."

Ukraine getting into NATO was apparently an incredible long-shot prior to the conflict, and i’ve seen zero evidence to indicate otherwise

US/Western/NATO interests have been campaigning for Ukraine to NATO for years now, even though we've known for years that Ukraine was a last straw

so what did it mean when Antony Blinken told a group of experts that Crimea was Putin’s red line, and therefore America’s as well?

the other thing that piece doesn’t seem to mention at all, are the diplomatic efforts that took place prior to and at the outset of the conflict, which were largely rebuffed by putin

again, what diplomatic efforts? If there's evidence of offering no more NATO expansion, and/or no more flooding Ukraine with arms, and/or something materially similar as a diplomatic negotiating piece, please provide it, and I'll gladly admit I'm wrong, and Putin (fuck him btw) really is some unilateral aggressor who's been tangoing with himself.

i’ll tell you the same thing i told randy re: covid and lab leak - you want everyone to be skeptical of the gov’t narrative until that narrative fits your own

again, with the difference being, in the context of the war thread, the precedent of government narratives being false pretenses supports my point to be skeptical, more so than it supports your point to go all-in on the narrative.

but, shoot, so much for not getting too wordy.

I promise I"ll try to be more concise yet, with what's your best post yet...