2024

[jfish26]

uncle will be 81 in 2 weeks.

That he will be. And nothing in the public record from the last several years suggests his likely opponent is not in SIGNIFICANTLY worse shape.

[JKLivin]

If the election were held today, former President Donald Trump would easily beat President Joe Biden with over 300 electoral votes, according to a new swing state poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/05/trump- ... n-poll-nyt

But, why?!? Brandon won fair and square (cough, cough) and he's done a fantastic job in office (cough, cough).

Four more years! Four more years!

Suddenly he trusts polling (cough, cough)

I trust my eyes and ears. The polling is incidental. Kind of like it was in 2016.

[jfish26]

If the election were held today, former President Donald Trump would easily beat President Joe Biden with over 300 electoral votes, according to a new swing state poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/05/trump- ... n-poll-nyt

Let's go with "If the election were held today AND actually voting occurred at the same rate as this poll, former President Donald Trump would easily beat President Joe Biden with over 300 electoral votes"

If voting were actually today, I doubt that would be the actual results.

This is correct, and even in its correctness, not the full story. Dems have been outperforming polls since 2018, and polling especially hasn't caught up with Dobbs.

Women's rights dominating the ballot boxes in Wisconsin and, tonight, Ohio, tells me FAR more about the state of things than prospective polling.

[twocoach]

But, why?!? Brandon won fair and square (cough, cough) and he's done a fantastic job in office (cough, cough).

Four more years! Four more years!

Suddenly he trusts polling (cough, cough)

I trust my eyes and ears. The polling is incidental. Kind of like it was in 2016.

The election is a year from now and there are lots of events and court cases between now and then. We'll see how the next few months go.

Would I like a different Dem option? Yes.

Would I vote for a tree stump over Trump? Also yes.

[jfish26]

Suddenly he trusts polling (cough, cough)

I trust my eyes and ears. The polling is incidental. Kind of like it was in 2016.

The election is a year from now and there are lots of events and court cases between now and then. We'll see how the next few months go.

Would I like a different Dem option? Yes.

Would I vote for a tree stump over Trump? Also yes.

Correct.

I consider non-Biden polling responses (from people who did NOT vote Trump in 2020) to be protest responses. Which are important. But I do NOT think there will be a meaningful number of people - even in the smaller, one-state sample sizes - who actually switch from Biden to Trump in 2024 (or who did not vote in 2020 and will vote for Trump in 2024).

[twocoach]

I trust my eyes and ears. The polling is incidental. Kind of like it was in 2016.

The election is a year from now and there are lots of events and court cases between now and then. We'll see how the next few months go.

Would I like a different Dem option? Yes.

Would I vote for a tree stump over Trump? Also yes.

Correct.

I consider non-Biden polling responses (from people who did NOT vote Trump in 2020) to be protest responses. Which are important. But I do NOT think there will be a meaningful number of people - even in the smaller, one-state sample sizes - who actually switch from Biden to Trump in 2024 (or who did not vote in 2020 and will vote for Trump in 2024).

If it was summer of 2024 and polling showed Trump leading then I would have a different opinion. I am not concerned at all at this point as many people are simply hoping that their options are different when they respond.

[Sparko]

Agreed Two coach and Fish. Good band name too.

I knew T-Bills were the way to go once Wall St tried to punish Biden. And I was right. Metrics my ass

[JKLivin]

Suddenly he trusts polling (cough, cough)

I trust my eyes and ears. The polling is incidental. Kind of like it was in 2016.

The election is a year from now and there are lots of events and court cases between now and then. We'll see how the next few months go.

Would I like a different Dem option? Yes.

Would I vote for a tree stump over Trump? Also yes.

And I would vote for a tree stump over Biden, Harris, or Mike Obama.

[DCHawk1]

Biden will NOT be the nominee.

[japhy]

Make it look like an accident.

[Shirley]

Democratic incumbent Gov Beshear of Kentucky has been declared the winner.

[Sparko]

Japhy I swear to God if you make me spit coffeee again. . .

[Sparko]

Democratic incumbent Gov Beshear of Kentucky has been declared the winner.

Positive development!

[ousdahl]

Rather than waiting for an accident to happen (and/or the risk of Biden getting beat a year from now), why not just have Uncle Joe take a dignified, “I’d like to spend more time with my family” sort of retirement farewell, which no one would begrudge?

I really hope dems don’t sit idly waiting for an accident

[Shirley]

Assuming it's Biden vs Trump next Nov., I'm pretty confident, the recent poll results notwithstanding.

That assumes republicans will fail to steal the presidential election, again, despite their various and sundry efforts, (including trying to hang Mike Pence), too numerous to mention...

In light of what's happened electorally in the 2018, 2020, 2022, and now 2023 elections, including Trump-endorsed candidates losing frequently, once democrats make the election about abortion and Trump, with a touch of mass shootings and republican reluctance to try to do anything about it for spice, I think the friction coefficient on the path to victory will decline.

And while I doubt he'll be much of a factor, I'd like to thank house republicans for electing Mike Johnson Speaker. It's as if a democratic consultant called the casting dept. and requested a foil for democrats to use to demonstrate the threat republicans pose to them. Educating voters about Mike's dream for America, a dream that can credibly be characterized as a westernized, American, Christo-Fascist version of the Taliban, should be fun to watch.

That being said, with a year to go, anything, anything, can happen.

[DCHawk1]

Democratic incumbent Gov Beshear of Kentucky has been declared the winner.

AlL tRuMp DoEs Is WiN!

[Overlander]

Make it look like an accident.

Holy fuck! My side hurts

[jfish26]

If the election were held today, former President Donald Trump would easily beat President Joe Biden with over 300 electoral votes, according to a new swing state poll from The New York Times and Siena College.

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/05/trump- ... n-poll-nyt

Let's go with "If the election were held today AND actually voting occurred at the same rate as this poll, former President Donald Trump would easily beat President Joe Biden with over 300 electoral votes"

If voting were actually today, I doubt that would be the actual results.

This is correct, and even in its correctness, not the full story. Dems have been outperforming polls since 2018, and polling especially hasn't caught up with Dobbs.

Women's rights dominating the ballot boxes in Wisconsin and, tonight, Ohio, tells me FAR more about the state of things than prospective polling.

So - this is not the same thing as saying 2024 is in the bag. At all.

But.

Last night could hardly have gone better for the Dems.

The Virginia and Kentucky and Pennsylvania outcomes are quite notable - voters are showing an understanding that women’s healthcare is a massive issue even where not directly on the ballot. The Loudon County (Virginia) school board outcome also demonstrates that voters are tiring of the culture war nonsense.

The right needs to reorganize around principles that have legs with the folks. Small government. Pro business. Individual rights and freedoms. And it needs to leave what’s between people’s legs behind.

[jhawks99]

Democratic incumbent Gov Beshear of Kentucky has been declared the winner.

Pretty proud of my former home. But just like 4 years ago, every other office went to a pub.

[jfish26]

Rather than waiting for an accident to happen (and/or the risk of Biden getting beat a year from now), why not just have Uncle Joe take a dignified, “I’d like to spend more time with my family” sort of retirement farewell, which no one would begrudge?

I really hope dems don’t sit idly waiting for an accident

I think the issue is that everyone on the left seems more or less fine lining up behind Biden. I am not sure there is presently another candidate who can hold the two ends of the party together to the degree needed to weather what’s left of the MAGA storm.

I personally would love to see someone else running instead.

But, if that someone else is too lefty, you’ll lose support from the middle. And if that person is too middle, you run the risk of a third party running from the left.