Uncle Joe

[jfish26]

Gasoline prices are really down. The free market does its thing elsewhere too. Russia holding on in Ukraine with T-55s and human waves trying to make everything worse is a special moment in cruelty. Be ready for some seismic changes in the Russian far east.

Sorta bonkers that the Republican candidate will most likely be a guy openly running on a “let’s stop short of crippling expansionist Russia for decades, for pennies on a dollar and without risking American lives” platform.

[JKLivin]

(I think the phrase you’re both (MICH and JK) looking for, here on this message board that primarily comprises supporters of Kansas basketball, is “selection bias”.)

Perhaps. What I find myself coming back to over and over again as I reflect on how this country has devolved over the past three years into an almost unrecognizable husk of itself is that at least there are no more mean tweets or unkind remarks being made to the White House Press Corps. Small price to pay for the devolution of our culture and the loss of our standard of living.

And it’s here that I have a very hard time seeing how you get to this conclusion based on purely unemotional, objective criteria. From my point of view, I do not see how anyone could look at Biden’s results and rationally conclude that we’d be better off with four more years of Trump.

And I will call a spade a spade: I will admit that I think anyone coming at this from a “2020 was rigged” angle is not coming at any of this rationally.

I respect that. I can’t see how anyone can think that Biden was elected legitimately and/or is doing a helluva job with a rational mind.

But, I appreciate the civility. I think good people can disagree without acrimony.

Maybe the Mean Girls Club aka my IGNORE list is losing sway around here.

[KUTradition]

meanies

[Overlander]

meanies

For a tough guy, he sure cries a lot

[KUTradition]

meanies

For a tough guy, he sure cries a lot

my favorite is that he responds to posters he has on ignore with “____, who is currently on your ignore list…”

the zinger of all zingers!!

i’ve said before and i’ll say again, if you say stupid shit, be prepared to get called stupid. i don’t care what your credentials are or what you claim your IQ to be. if you don’t like getting called stupid, don’t act like an idiot

[Overlander]

meanies

For a tough guy, he sure cries a lot

my favorite is that he responds to posters he has on ignore with “____, who is currently on your ignore list…”

the zinger of all zingers!!

i’ve said before and i’ll say again, if you say stupid shit, be prepared to get called stupid. i don’t care what your credentials are or what you claim your IQ to be. if you don’t like getting called stupid, don’t act like an idiot, or a racist, name calling, misogynistic prick

[Shirley]

gas is $4.57 here as of yesterday

Shirley says it, thus, it is true. Your high gas prices are just your imagination.

And if you don't believe him, he can supply nineteen YouTube videos to back it up.

^^^

And if you don't believe him, he can supply nineteen YouTube videos to back it up.

[JKLivin]

gas is $4.57 here as of yesterday

Shirley says it, thus, it is true. Your high gas prices are just your imagination.

And if you don't believe him, he can supply nineteen YouTube videos to back it up.

^^^

And if you don't believe him, he can supply nineteen YouTube videos to back it up.

I don’t click video links, but I’m sure it’s very persuasive and informative.

[ousdahl]

An internal State Department dissent memo accuses President Biden of "spreading misinformation" on the Israel-Hamas war and alleges that Israel is committing "war crimes" in Gaza, according to a copy of the memo obtained by Axios.

https://www.axios.com/2023/11/13/biden- ... tment-memo

[Shirley]

Today In: Woo Hoo!
Thanks, Joe!

Nick Timiraos
Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal

Downside surprise:

Core CPI printed much milder than expected in October, at 0.23% m/m

The 3-month annualized rate was 3.4%, vs 3.1% in Sept
The 6-month annualized rate was 3.2%, vs 3.6% in Sept
The 12-month change was 4%, the smallest annual increase in two years



October Consumer Price Index:
0.0% M/M vs. +0.1% expected and +0.4% prior.

+3.2% Y/Y vs. +3.3% expected and +3.7% prior.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy:
+0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% expected and +0.3% prior.

+4.0% Y/Y vs. +4.1% expected and +4.1% prior.

One of our fellow posters, the one with the high IQ, frequently complains that "Core CPI doesn't include food and energy". There are valid reasons for that, but like many other aspects of reality, like facts, their ideology renders them conveniently blind to it. But, if you look at CPI, which does include food and energy, it's down to 0.1%, which is down 75% from last month, down > 13% from a year ago, and is an inflation rate of only 1.2% on an annual basis, which is 40% below the 2% annual rate the Fed thinks is healthy for the economy.

But, Joe Biden is 80.

[ousdahl]

Pretty crazy that the potus is literally even older than Israel

[jfish26]

Today In: Woo Hoo!
Thanks, Joe!

Nick Timiraos
Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal

Downside surprise:

Core CPI printed much milder than expected in October, at 0.23% m/m

The 3-month annualized rate was 3.4%, vs 3.1% in Sept
The 6-month annualized rate was 3.2%, vs 3.6% in Sept
The 12-month change was 4%, the smallest annual increase in two years



October Consumer Price Index:
0.0% M/M vs. +0.1% expected and +0.4% prior.

+3.2% Y/Y vs. +3.3% expected and +3.7% prior.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy:
+0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% expected and +0.3% prior.

+4.0% Y/Y vs. +4.1% expected and +4.1% prior.

One of our fellow posters, the one with the high IQ, frequently complains that "Core CPI doesn't include food and energy". There are valid reasons for that, but like many other aspects of reality, like facts, their ideology renders them conveniently blind to it. But, if you look at CPI, which does include food and energy, it's down to 0.1%, which is down 75% from last month, down > 13% from a year ago, and is an inflation rate of only 1.2% on an annual basis, which is 40% below the 2% annual rate the Fed thinks is healthy for the economy.

But, Joe Biden is 80.

The Journal? You’re going with that pinko rag?

[JKLivin]

Today In: Woo Hoo!
Thanks, Joe!

Nick Timiraos
Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal

Downside surprise:

Core CPI printed much milder than expected in October, at 0.23% m/m

The 3-month annualized rate was 3.4%, vs 3.1% in Sept
The 6-month annualized rate was 3.2%, vs 3.6% in Sept
The 12-month change was 4%, the smallest annual increase in two years



October Consumer Price Index:
0.0% M/M vs. +0.1% expected and +0.4% prior.

+3.2% Y/Y vs. +3.3% expected and +3.7% prior.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy:
+0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% expected and +0.3% prior.

+4.0% Y/Y vs. +4.1% expected and +4.1% prior.

One of our fellow posters, the one with the high IQ, frequently complains that "Core CPI doesn't include food and energy". There are valid reasons for that, but like many other aspects of reality, like facts, their ideology renders them conveniently blind to it. But, if you look at CPI, which does include food and energy, it's down to 0.1%, which is down 75% from last month, down > 13% from a year ago, and is an inflation rate of only 1.2% on an annual basis, which is 40% below the 2% annual rate the Fed thinks is healthy for the economy.

But, Joe Biden is 80.

Yup. Yer right. We're in the middle of a frickin' utopia 'round here. Thanks for correcting my misperception.

Two issues: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... y%20flawed.

"One problem with the CPI that's been identified by economists, and which the Bureau of Labor Statistics freely admits, is that the index does not factor in the effects of substitution.

The economic reality is that when certain goods become significantly more expensive, many consumers buy less expensive alternatives. For instance, they may buy the store brand instead of the name brand. Or they may buy regular gasoline instead of premium grade.

The CPI can't take this common practice into account. Instead, it presents numbers that assume consumers are continuing to buy the same amount of increasingly expensive goods."

And

"Hidden inflation refers to expenses that are not reflected in explicit price increases. One of the most common forms of hidden inflation is shrinkflation. Shrinkflation occurs when companies cut costs by offering a smaller product at the same price. Customers end up essentially spending more money as they spend the same amounts on less product.

Hidden inflation can also be reflected in qualitative changes that are difficult to track with the CPI. For example, companies may choose to cut corners on their assembly lines to produce less durable goods. Or they may introduce preservatives to extend the shelf-life of what was previously sold as fresh produce.

These changes may introduce unnoticed increases to the cost of living that are not reflected in the CPI."

In the words of that much-revered American philosopher, S.L. Clemens: there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

[Shirley]

Early signs are that the lower inflation levels reflected in today's CPI numbers are being well received.

The market is up over 500 points because with the lower inflation rate, the Fed is much, much less likely to raise interest rates again in an attempt to slow the economy down. And despite the GDP coming in at an unexpectedly stellar 4.9% recently in the third quarter, the Fed raising rates 11 times in ~ 18 months, is definitely slowing the economy down. (The US economy is a big ship that generally turns slowly. "It takes an escalator up, but an elevator down.")

-The XLK, an ETF that holds tech co. stocks like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom, Adobe, Cisco, Oracle, et al, is up to its highest level since 1998, near an all-time high.

NVIDIA's stock is on pace for the longest streak of consecutive gains in seven years.

[jfish26]

Early signs are that the lower inflation levels reflected in today's CPI numbers are being well received.

The market is up over 500 points because with the lower inflation rate, the Fed is much, much less likely to raise interest rates again in an attempt to slow the economy down. And despite the GDP coming in at an unexpectedly stellar 4.9% recently in the third quarter, the Fed raising rates 11 times in ~ 18 months, is definitely slowing the economy down. (The US economy is a big ship that generally turns slowly. "It takes an escalator up, but an elevator down.")

-The XLK, an ETF that holds tech co. stocks like Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom, Adobe, Cisco, Oracle, et al, is up to its highest level since 1998, near an all-time high.

NVIDIA's stock is on pace for the longest streak of consecutive gains in seven years.

I'm not an economist.

But it would make logical sense to me that you'd hold rates high during a period of high inflation (because cheap cash is your enemy vis a vis inflation) and then relax rates once inflation is stable or trending downward (because cheap cash is your friend vis a vis economic growth, and it will take some time for rate decreases to make their way into new big-ticket (construction and investment) growth spending).

[Overlander]

So, according to Psych, someone uses a coupon, and the entire economy blows up?

[KUTradition]

https://fortune.com/2023/11/14/why-is-j ... class/amp/

[jfish26]

So, according to Psych, someone uses a coupon, and the entire economy blows up?

I do want to know how an inflation hawk, who is ALSO a border hawk, expects food prices to do anything but explode if/when Trump (and Stephen Miller) deport 10mm brown people.

[pdub]

I think the fact that we often tend to measure our economy by how the stocks are doing is a bigger issue.
It means so very little to most people.

[jfish26]

I think the fact that we often tend to measure our economy by how the stocks are doing is a bigger issue.
It means so very little to most people.

True. Which is sort of the purpose of these cost of living indices. Or using broad-scale metrics like GDP.

Most fundamentally, there is NOT a magic bullet statistic. And psych very often correctly points out/implies that the “economy” may be felt quite differently in one place (or in one segment) than another.

To me, these facts support the view that you cannot really make a direct tie between the economy and the dude in the big chair…except (in my opinion) that you very much CAN evaluate the big chair guy’s decisions and actions in terms of what they portend for the future of the economy.