Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Ugh.
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by japhy »

Leading indicators of shit place to live and I'm just not a beach person.
A recent study by Forbes Health ranked Colorado as the top state with the healthiest hearts – and the lowest rates of obesity and high blood pressure. With its abundance of outdoor activities, tendency towards an active lifestyle, and beautiful scenery, it's not hard to see why Colorado performed so well in these categories.

Forbes Health collected data for all 50 states across 16 individual factors spanning two key categories – lifestyle factors and prevalence of heart conditions. The 'lifestyle factors' category included elements like the number of people exercising at least once a month, the prevalence of heavy drinking, obesity rates, smoking, and more. Factors making up the 'prevalence of heart conditions' category of data included the rate of heart disease mortality, rate of stroke mortality, high blood pressure, percentage of residents with high cholesterol, etc.

Data also showed that Colorado is home to the highest percentage of people who exercised at least once during the month the data was collected. According to Forbes Health, exercise is a significant factor in heart health. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute states that regular, moderate- and vigorous-intensity aerobic activity can lower a person’s risk for diabetes, coronary heart disease, and cancer. Exercise also improves the heart's ability to pump blood throughout the body.

Colorado also had the lowest obesity rate at 24.9% of adults, the lowest percentage of adults reporting less than seven hours of sleep (29.3%), and the lowest rate of individuals with high blood pressure (24.6%).
My blood pressure is 110/70 so I guess I am healthy enough to weather the god forsaken hellscape that is the Rocky Muthafuckin Mountains.

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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by jfish26 »

japhy wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:27 pm More proof that Colorado is going to shit.
U.S. News and World Report recently conducted a data analysis with the goal of determining which housing markets around the country are the 'hottest' based on the publication's 'housing market index,' which incorporates a wide range of data points into a final overall score. Multiple places in Colorado scored very well in terms of how hot the local market is.

The highest ranking metro area nationwide in terms of 'market hotness' was the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood metro area, with an overall score in December of 2023 of 74.8. Meanwhile, Fort Collins ranked 12th nationwide with a score of 69.2, Greeley ranked 15th nationwide with a score of 68.6, and Colorado Springs ranked 19th nationwide with a score of 67.8.

In terms of Denver's high score, this score was boosted by low local unemployment rates, few mortgage delinquencies, low rental vacancy rates for investors, and a positive ratio of building permits to job growth. The city's 'housing market index' score rose by 7.4 points year-over-year, and while 'supply' metrics were scored relatively low, 'financial' and 'demand' metrics scored high.

The median sales price by December 2023 in the Denver metro area was reported to be $550,000, above a national median of $404,000. Denver's median sales price dropped in recent months from a high of $595,000 in June of 2023.

Meanwhile, rent in Denver continued to climb, despite higher vacancy rates. Data from Zillow indicated that it rose 3.1 percent year-over-year to $1,992, just above the national median of $1,957.

Elsewhere in Colorado, Fort Collins ranked 9th on the U.S News and World Report 'Markets to Watch' ranking, with the local 'housing market index' score increasing by 2.7 points between June and December, indicating that this market has heated up in recent months.

Greeley, Denver, and Fort Collins metros all ranked among the 'most resilient markets' in the nation – 1st, 8th, and 10th, respectively. Greeley's leading resiliency was captured in a year-over-year 'home market index' score increase of 13.2 percent.

When it came to demand-related metrics, Denver ranked 2nd nationwide, Colorado Springs ranked 7th, and Greeley ranked 8th.
This might explain why I get multiple calls every week from realtors wanting to know if I am thinking about listing my Springs house this summer.....because no one wants to live there.
Colorado is, anecdotally, in this weird no-mans-land in the housing market.

My anecdote is my cousin M and her family. M and I grew up close together in Southern California, where "her" side of the family generally is from.

Over the last 10-15ish years, that side of the family has largely made its way to Colorado, but for one straggling kid/cousin.

All three families that have bought homes in Colorado have gladly paid asking-or-more, because (coming from Southern California) paying 0.4x (or whatever) of Southern California prices for comparable homes seems like a bargain...but they don't fully comprehend that what's happening is they're buying into a market they're inflating; my home and M's home are BROADLY comparable (mine slightly bigger, hers on a slightly better lot; mine in a neighborhood desirable for certain things, hers in a neighborhood desirable for other things), and M was giddy to have bought hers for triple what I spent on mine.

If you want to say that Denver is better than Kansas City, and the Denver-and-surrounds lifestyle makes it worth it - fine, that's not my point. My point is basically the giddiness - that Colorado seems overheated to me, because buyers don't understand that "cheaper than LA" doesn't necessarily mean "value."
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by Cassandra »

It was obviously a joke, in reference to your statement about people not making it in California. It's not actually that hard to make it in California. If it were, we wouldn't have so many stupid people living out here.
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by Overlander »

Cassandra wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:30 pm Everywhere else is where people go when they couldn't make it California.
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by Overlander »

Cassandra wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:50 pm It was obviously a joke, in reference to your statement about people not making it in California. It's not actually that hard to make it in California. If it were, we wouldn't have so many stupid people living out here.
So, you could, hypothetically, move to say Georgia....and raise the IQ level of BOTH states!
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by Cassandra »

No, not a big fan of the south.
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by japhy »

jfish26 wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:46 pm Colorado is, anecdotally, in this weird no-mans-land in the housing market.

My anecdote is my cousin M and her family. M and I grew up close together in Southern California, where "her" side of the family generally is from.

Over the last 10-15ish years, that side of the family has largely made its way to Colorado, but for one straggling kid/cousin.

All three families that have bought homes in Colorado have gladly paid asking-or-more, because (coming from Southern California) paying 0.4x (or whatever) of Southern California prices for comparable homes seems like a bargain...but they don't fully comprehend that what's happening is they're buying into a market they're inflating; my home and M's home are BROADLY comparable (mine slightly bigger, hers on a slightly better lot; mine in a neighborhood desirable for certain things, hers in a neighborhood desirable for other things), and M was giddy to have bought hers for triple what I spent on mine.

If you want to say that Denver is better than Kansas City, and the Denver-and-surrounds lifestyle makes it worth it - fine, that's not my point. My point is basically the giddiness - that Colorado seems overheated to me, because buyers don't understand that "cheaper than LA" doesn't necessarily mean "value."
Better is very subjective. When I graduated from college, KC was a better place for me to build a national business and accumulate wealth. The lower cost of living, the lower cost of doing business; and I could still get to the Rockies in less than a whole day of driving. I could spend 2-3 weeks every summer in Colorado.

I am a big fan of KC.

But at this stage of my life, I can afford to live where I vacation. Wealth building is done. Since my days will be mine to do with as I please, I choose to be in the place that has the most opportunity to do what I enjoy. I get up in the morning, brew a pot of coffee and decide if I want to drive the 30 minutes up to my secret trout stream, go to my studio and spend the day making shit or check in with the random geniuses in the valley and see if I can assist them in their shit. The wild areas of Colorado are much less crowded than those in my birthplace, California.

So now, Colorado is better for me.

And god sent me to the Empire to save a town. I need to move closer to do the lord's work on a consistent basis.
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by jfish26 »

japhy wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 1:22 pm
jfish26 wrote: Wed Feb 14, 2024 12:46 pm Colorado is, anecdotally, in this weird no-mans-land in the housing market.

My anecdote is my cousin M and her family. M and I grew up close together in Southern California, where "her" side of the family generally is from.

Over the last 10-15ish years, that side of the family has largely made its way to Colorado, but for one straggling kid/cousin.

All three families that have bought homes in Colorado have gladly paid asking-or-more, because (coming from Southern California) paying 0.4x (or whatever) of Southern California prices for comparable homes seems like a bargain...but they don't fully comprehend that what's happening is they're buying into a market they're inflating; my home and M's home are BROADLY comparable (mine slightly bigger, hers on a slightly better lot; mine in a neighborhood desirable for certain things, hers in a neighborhood desirable for other things), and M was giddy to have bought hers for triple what I spent on mine.

If you want to say that Denver is better than Kansas City, and the Denver-and-surrounds lifestyle makes it worth it - fine, that's not my point. My point is basically the giddiness - that Colorado seems overheated to me, because buyers don't understand that "cheaper than LA" doesn't necessarily mean "value."
Better is very subjective. When I graduated from college, KC was a better place for me to build a national business and accumulate wealth. The lower cost of living, the lower cost of doing business; and I could still get to the Rockies in less than a whole day of driving. I could spend 2-3 weeks every summer in Colorado.

I am a big fan of KC.

But at this stage of my life, I can afford to live where I vacation. Wealth building is done. Since my days will be mine to do with as I please, I choose to be in the place that has the most opportunity to do what I enjoy. I get up in the morning, brew a pot of coffee and decide if I want to drive the 30 minutes up to my secret trout stream, go to my studio and spend the day making shit or check in with the random geniuses in the valley and see if I can assist them in their shit. The wild areas of Colorado are much less crowded than those in my birthplace, California.

So now, Colorado is better for me.

And god sent me to the Empire to save a town. I need to move closer to do the lord's work on a consistent basis.
My argument isn't that Kansas City is better than Colorado. It definitely is, though, that ex-pat Californians are not getting the deal they think they're getting.
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by japhy »

If they are getting the deal they want, that's all that matters.
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

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everybody defi es value differently though.

And, with that said, I'm probably not the best judge of value either because I value things that aren't money on a higher scale than things that are money. It's been, what some, might consider a downfall of my career. I've repeatedly made decisions and moves that negatively impacted my finances but improved, in my opinion, my life. Had I chosen differently zi could be significantly more wealthy than I am.

For my 2 cents, I'd rather be broke in Colorado (except Denver, never Denver) than rich in Kansas City.
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by japhy »

Somebody out there doing something. I haven't seen it yet, but something like this was opened last year in the Tartarian Empire. From what II heard it was full all through the harvest seasons.
SEATTLE (AP) — Every part of Barbara Peraza-Garcia and her family’s single-room apartment in Seattle has a double or even triple purpose.

The 180-square-foot (17-square-meter) room is filled with an air mattress where she, her partner and their children, ages 2 and 4, sleep. It’s also where they play or watch TV. At mealtimes, it becomes their dining room.

It’s a tight squeeze for the family of asylum seekers from Venezuela. But at $900 a month —more than $550 less than the average studio in Seattle — the micro-apartment with a bare-bones bathroom and shared kitchen was just within their budget and gave them a quick exit from their previous arrangement sleeping on the floor of a church.

“It’s warm. We can cook ourselves. We have a private bathroom. It’s quiet,” said Peraza-Garcia, whose family came to the U.S. to escape crime in Venezuela and so she could access vital medication to combat cysts on her kidney. “We can be here as a family now.”

Boarding houses that rented single rooms to low-income, blue-collar or temporary workers were prevalent across the U.S. in the early 1900s. Known as single room occupancy units, or SROs, they started to disappear in the postwar years amid urban renewal efforts and a focus on suburban single-family housing.

Now the concept is reappearing — with the trendy name of “micro-apartment” and aimed at a much broader array of residents — as cities buffeted by surging homelessness struggle to make housing more affordable.

“If you’re a single person and you want a low-cost place to live, that’s as cheap as you’re going to get without trying to find a subsidized apartment,” said Dan Bertolet, senior director of housing and urbanism for the non-profit research center Sightline Institute.

The Pacific Northwest is a leader in the resurgence of this form of affordable housing. Oregon last year passed a bill opening the door for micro-apartments and Washington state lawmakers this year did the same, starting to clear red tape that for years has limited construction of the tiny units, which are about a third the size of an average studio apartment.

The Washington bill, which was signed this week by Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee after receiving nearly unanimous support in the Legislature, would require most cities to allow micro-apartments in residential buildings with at least six units, according to the Department of Commerce. It takes effect in late 2025.

The legislation is an effort to counteract skyrocketing housing prices and, in the Seattle area, one of the nation’s highest rates of homelessness, as well as a critical housing shortage.

Extremely low-income renters — those below federal poverty guidelines or earning 30% of the area median income — face a shortage of 7.3 million affordable rental homes, according to a National Low Income Housing Coalition report published last week. Such households account for 11 million — or nearly one-quarter — of renters nationwide, the report said.

Rep. Mia Gregerson, who sponsored Washington's bill, said she predicts the measure will lead to thousands of units being built in her state, providing unsubsidized affordable housing to everyone from young people getting their first apartment and elderly people downsizing to those coming out of physical or mental health treatment.

“Government can’t close that gap all by itself, it has to have for-profit, market-rate housing built all at the same time,” said Gregerson, a Democrat.

The U.S. lost hundreds of thousands of SROs in the last half of the 20th century as associations with poverty and substandard accommodation sparked restrictive zoning laws. Some cities outlawed their construction altogether — a loss some housing experts say helped contribute to the homelessness crisis.

Facing that crisis and a critical housing shortage, cities and states across the nation are now shifting their stance.

In December, as her state grappled with a massive influx of migrants, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced a $50 million program aimed at repairing and renovating 500 SROs across the state. New York City lost at least 70,000 such units between the early 20th century and 2014, according to a report from New York University's Furman Center.

But there is concern that this type of affordable housing is not an ideal fit for an especially vulnerable group — families.

There are more than 3,800 unhoused families with children in the Seattle area, among the highest in the nation, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development 2023 one-night count.

Cities need to focus on building affordable housing that also includes larger units, such as studios and one-bedroom apartments, said Marisa Zapata, a land-use planning professor at Portland State University.

“My biggest concern is that we will see them as the solution and not do right by our community members by building the housing that people want,” she said of micro-apartments.

The bill passed by Oregon lawmakers last year requires local governments to allow single room occupancy units in areas zoned for residential use. The provision took effect Jan. 1.

Central City Concern, a Portland-based homeless services nonprofit, leases more than 1,000 SRO units — both subsidized and not — to people who are considered extremely low income. It helps people struggling to access housing due to things like eviction histories and poor credit scores.

The units have a median rent of $550 a month, making them a “vital option” for people exiting homelessness or living on fixed incomes, such as those with disabilities, said Sarah Holland, senior director of supportive housing and employment. Over 80% of tenants were formerly homeless, she said, and some have been living in their units for 30 years.

“As costs continue to escalate in Portland, it gives them the chance to stay in their home,” she said.

Cheyenne Welbourne moved into one of the nonprofit’s micro-apartments in downtown Portland last March after years of living on the streets. The room, which has a curtained-off toilet and sink, is just big enough to fit a single bed, a chair and a TV. But to him, it’s a treasured home that he’s decorated with colorful lights, potted plants and action figures. He uses the small kitchenette, which features an induction cooktop, for making the tea he loves to drink.

“All I had was just me and my backpack, and that’s it,” he said. “I was just happy to be in here and that I didn’t have to spend another winter out there.”

“I just want a home, you know? A nice home, a decent home.”

Some experts hope the Pacific Northwest will inspire more states to take similar steps.

“The alternatives are ... people being in shelters, people being on the street, people being doubled, tripled, quadrupled up,” said Vicki Been, faculty director at New York University’s Furman Center and a law professor.

For Peraza-Garcia’s family in Seattle, the tight squeeze is worth it to be in the same complex as their cousins and walking distance of grocery stores, a park and preschools. They plan to spend the next year in the micro-apartment and then move to a bigger place if they can get good-paying jobs.

“We’re happy because we’re here in a quiet place where we can be together as a family,” she said.

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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

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I understand the need and the reality of some situations. But, I'd rather live in a wall tent in the woods then live in a micro apartment in a big city downtown urban hellscape.
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

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TDub wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2024 10:00 am I understand the need and the reality of some situations. But, I'd rather live in a wall tent in the woods then live in a micro apartment in a big city downtown urban hellscape.
When you put it that way
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

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TDub wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2024 10:00 am I understand the need and the reality of some situations. But, I'd rather live in a wall tent in the woods then live in a micro apartment in a big city downtown urban hellscape.
I doubt that tent in the woods is in any proximity of a job though.
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

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japhy wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2024 8:43 am Somebody out there doing something. I haven't seen it yet, but something like this was opened last year in the Tartarian Empire. From what II heard it was full all through the harvest seasons.
SEATTLE (AP) — Every part of Barbara Peraza-Garcia and her family’s single-room apartment in Seattle has a double or even triple purpose.

The 180-square-foot (17-square-meter) room is filled with an air mattress where she, her partner and their children, ages 2 and 4, sleep. It’s also where they play or watch TV. At mealtimes, it becomes their dining room.

It’s a tight squeeze for the family of asylum seekers from Venezuela. But at $900 a month —more than $550 less than the average studio in Seattle — the micro-apartment with a bare-bones bathroom and shared kitchen was just within their budget and gave them a quick exit from their previous arrangement sleeping on the floor of a church.

“It’s warm. We can cook ourselves. We have a private bathroom. It’s quiet,” said Peraza-Garcia, whose family came to the U.S. to escape crime in Venezuela and so she could access vital medication to combat cysts on her kidney. “We can be here as a family now.”

Boarding houses that rented single rooms to low-income, blue-collar or temporary workers were prevalent across the U.S. in the early 1900s. Known as single room occupancy units, or SROs, they started to disappear in the postwar years amid urban renewal efforts and a focus on suburban single-family housing.

Now the concept is reappearing — with the trendy name of “micro-apartment” and aimed at a much broader array of residents — as cities buffeted by surging homelessness struggle to make housing more affordable.

“If you’re a single person and you want a low-cost place to live, that’s as cheap as you’re going to get without trying to find a subsidized apartment,” said Dan Bertolet, senior director of housing and urbanism for the non-profit research center Sightline Institute.

The Pacific Northwest is a leader in the resurgence of this form of affordable housing. Oregon last year passed a bill opening the door for micro-apartments and Washington state lawmakers this year did the same, starting to clear red tape that for years has limited construction of the tiny units, which are about a third the size of an average studio apartment.

The Washington bill, which was signed this week by Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee after receiving nearly unanimous support in the Legislature, would require most cities to allow micro-apartments in residential buildings with at least six units, according to the Department of Commerce. It takes effect in late 2025.

The legislation is an effort to counteract skyrocketing housing prices and, in the Seattle area, one of the nation’s highest rates of homelessness, as well as a critical housing shortage.

Extremely low-income renters — those below federal poverty guidelines or earning 30% of the area median income — face a shortage of 7.3 million affordable rental homes, according to a National Low Income Housing Coalition report published last week. Such households account for 11 million — or nearly one-quarter — of renters nationwide, the report said.

Rep. Mia Gregerson, who sponsored Washington's bill, said she predicts the measure will lead to thousands of units being built in her state, providing unsubsidized affordable housing to everyone from young people getting their first apartment and elderly people downsizing to those coming out of physical or mental health treatment.

“Government can’t close that gap all by itself, it has to have for-profit, market-rate housing built all at the same time,” said Gregerson, a Democrat.

The U.S. lost hundreds of thousands of SROs in the last half of the 20th century as associations with poverty and substandard accommodation sparked restrictive zoning laws. Some cities outlawed their construction altogether — a loss some housing experts say helped contribute to the homelessness crisis.

Facing that crisis and a critical housing shortage, cities and states across the nation are now shifting their stance.

In December, as her state grappled with a massive influx of migrants, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul announced a $50 million program aimed at repairing and renovating 500 SROs across the state. New York City lost at least 70,000 such units between the early 20th century and 2014, according to a report from New York University's Furman Center.

But there is concern that this type of affordable housing is not an ideal fit for an especially vulnerable group — families.

There are more than 3,800 unhoused families with children in the Seattle area, among the highest in the nation, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development 2023 one-night count.

Cities need to focus on building affordable housing that also includes larger units, such as studios and one-bedroom apartments, said Marisa Zapata, a land-use planning professor at Portland State University.

“My biggest concern is that we will see them as the solution and not do right by our community members by building the housing that people want,” she said of micro-apartments.

The bill passed by Oregon lawmakers last year requires local governments to allow single room occupancy units in areas zoned for residential use. The provision took effect Jan. 1.

Central City Concern, a Portland-based homeless services nonprofit, leases more than 1,000 SRO units — both subsidized and not — to people who are considered extremely low income. It helps people struggling to access housing due to things like eviction histories and poor credit scores.

The units have a median rent of $550 a month, making them a “vital option” for people exiting homelessness or living on fixed incomes, such as those with disabilities, said Sarah Holland, senior director of supportive housing and employment. Over 80% of tenants were formerly homeless, she said, and some have been living in their units for 30 years.

“As costs continue to escalate in Portland, it gives them the chance to stay in their home,” she said.

Cheyenne Welbourne moved into one of the nonprofit’s micro-apartments in downtown Portland last March after years of living on the streets. The room, which has a curtained-off toilet and sink, is just big enough to fit a single bed, a chair and a TV. But to him, it’s a treasured home that he’s decorated with colorful lights, potted plants and action figures. He uses the small kitchenette, which features an induction cooktop, for making the tea he loves to drink.

“All I had was just me and my backpack, and that’s it,” he said. “I was just happy to be in here and that I didn’t have to spend another winter out there.”

“I just want a home, you know? A nice home, a decent home.”

Some experts hope the Pacific Northwest will inspire more states to take similar steps.

“The alternatives are ... people being in shelters, people being on the street, people being doubled, tripled, quadrupled up,” said Vicki Been, faculty director at New York University’s Furman Center and a law professor.

For Peraza-Garcia’s family in Seattle, the tight squeeze is worth it to be in the same complex as their cousins and walking distance of grocery stores, a park and preschools. They plan to spend the next year in the micro-apartment and then move to a bigger place if they can get good-paying jobs.

“We’re happy because we’re here in a quiet place where we can be together as a family,” she said.

Another reason rural Washingtonian's are marching around with pitch forks....
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by TDub »

Overlander wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2024 10:45 am
TDub wrote: Thu Mar 21, 2024 10:00 am I understand the need and the reality of some situations. But, I'd rather live in a wall tent in the woods then live in a micro apartment in a big city downtown urban hellscape.
I doubt that tent in the woods is in any proximity of a job though.
well there is that problem....
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

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i think it’s important to remember that the US way of living is in excess relative to what many, if not most (?), immigrant families are used to

i won’t get into any sort of valuation, as the priorities obviously vary widely
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by ousdahl »

Kinda surprised a church would let them sleep on the floor

Also wonder how much that kidney medication costs
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Re: Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

Post by DCHawk1 »

I amember once, at an old bored, when people got pissy about truly micro-sized apartments in Hong Kong. "HoW cAn CaPiTaLiSm Be BeTtEr If PeOpLe HaVe To LiVe LiKe ThAt!!!????"

I'm glad that now -- when the alternative is NOT living in Red China -- that it's all good.
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