Goodbye Hunter Dickinson

[pdub]

I think we're a 2 seed with healthy Kevin and Hunter this season.
I do not think we win a title.

I think we're a 5 seed with healthy Kevin and Udeh and Zuby.
That's a drop of 3 seeds.
You all think it'd be more like 8. I dont think Hunter is nearly that valuable. Sorry.

( fwiw statistics agree with me - Hunter is worth 3 more points per game than Udeh in Bartorvik's rating system - and that's comparing to Udeh this season at TCU - my estimate he'd be another point better at Kansas - 2 points a game isn't dropping you 8 seeds )

[jfish26]

"I do not think it's reasonable to suggest that replacing Hunter's minutes with Udeh/Zuby would plausibly result in moving up to 3rd in AdjD"

Then we disagree.
We were 17th this season.

We had a senior who was B12DPOY. We had another senior who was B12DPOY. We had a 4 who is very talented on defense. Throw in a guy who I think would be Udoka Lite ( as opposed to pretty rough on defense Diamond boi ) and give him a legit backup and yes, I think we could very well be 3rd.

Iowa State was 1st.
Iowa State isn't beyond more talented than our squad would be with the scenario I presented.

As far as your comedy comment about dropping 19 spots in adjO, I can't help you if you don't think our coach has shown the ability to get the best out of his players in his long tenured career ( where he has done so ).

Yes, and he got an AdjO ranking of 61st with an excellent offensive center (who can really pass, and who at least needs to be guarded away from the hoop), which you are (in this example) proposing to replace with guys for whom "average in big minutes" would have been a GREAT outcome.

I think there's a decent argument to be made that staying the course with all of last year's roster plus our new guys (other than Hunter) would have led to better results this season.

I do not think there's a non-comedy argument to be made that this year's roster plus Udeh/Zuby, but minus Hunter, would have only dropped 19 spots in AdjO.

[ousdahl]

Trying to remember what offense Udeh and Zuby brought…the occasional lob usually against opponents’ reserves?

Other than that, putbacks?

I don’t remember either really showing post moves or jumpers.

Don’t remember either being particularly great rebounders or passers either

[pdub]

I do not think there's a non-comedy argument to be made that this year's roster plus Udeh/Zuby, but minus Hunter, would have only dropped 19 spots in AdjO.

Yes, we disagree.
Again, I think Self's track record shows he's going to find a system that gives his team the best chance to win and that he can surprise people with guys they had no idea could be featured on the team.
You all don't.

Self's never had a season sub 50 adjO until this season.
I think 80 seems low enough.
You don't.

[TDub]

Well, we do have actual results to discuss. Like getting blown the eff out by a non-tourney team, two weeks ago tomorrow. And, as trad points out, Michigan nosediving.

Just like I think the majority of fan anxiety over the changes is really more about the portal (than about money), I think the majority of fan anxiety over Hunter is really more about the changes than Hunter's actual contributions.

Yes, but you keep going back to this team, with this team construction. Yes, this team was better with hunter playing, I'm not arguing that. This team didn't do shit with him playing or not playing. The point being if you dont have Hunter and his huge salary then you have other players who may put up lesser numbers but impact the game more positively.

We don't just roll out this exact team sans Hunter and call it good.

Saying that Hunter isn't a winning player and that I don't think he makes the team (in a general usage of the term) better AND also saying this particular team (a fairly terrible Bill Self team and Kansas team based on the last 40 years) was better with him playing....are not necessarily statements that are incogruent.

But "and his huge salary" gives away the game here. It's baggage of Hunter's that makes you hate Hunter. That baggage is not really relevant to roster construction, and it is not relevant at all to his play or our results (except in how we feel about them).

The primary issue with this team is not that we had Hunter. The primary issue is not that Hunter is not a "winner". We probably would have been a bubble team without him, even if you assume we'd have kept Udeh AND Zuby.

The primary issue is that we didn't have more around Hunter (specifically, at a minimum, at least one more shooter so as to improve the value of Hunter's passing skills, and at least one more big who could play alongside Hunter (and rebound better than KJ) or in place of Hunter (and offer more than Braun)).

If you want to make a case that Hunter's NIL money somehow made those things impossible...I think that would be an implausible, highly-speculative case. Particularly considering the timing involved.

hunters salary is only a potion if it, it's not THE reason I feel the way I do.

[jfish26]

I do not think there's a non-comedy argument to be made that this year's roster plus Udeh/Zuby, but minus Hunter, would have only dropped 19 spots in AdjO.

Yes, we disagree.
Again, I think Self's track record shows he's going to find a system that gives his team the best chance to win and that he can surprise people with guys they had no idea could be featured on the team.
You all don't.

Self's never had a season sub 50 adjO until this season.
I think 80 seems low enough.
You don't.

So, if you could go back in time and stop GM Bill (who would also be Coach Bill) from choosing to go with Hunter, then Coach Bill would have managed to put together an only somewhat-worse offense around Udeh/Zuby at the 5.

That's the idea?

[pdub]

Yes.

More use of KJ.
More lobs and better pick and roll action from Dajuan to Udeh.
An offense not as dependent on going to the inside block for a large percentage of plays.
A bench big with some athleticism and bounce.

It's not comedy. It's coaching. And Self's done it before.

2015 we had a sophomore Perry Ellis and Frank Mason as our best scorers.
Kelly Oubre shot 44%.
Cliff Alexander stopped playing after January.

Self figured that shit out.

[DeletedUser]

So, if you could go back in time and stop GM Bill (who would also be Coach Bill) from choosing to go with Hunter, then Coach Bill would have managed to put together an only somewhat-worse offense around Udeh/Zuby at the 5.

That's the idea?

I just don't see how that's even remotely possible.

Udeh started 29 games this year. He scored in double digits twice. I agree he'd be better at Kansas with DH in a Self offense, but come on. Udeh and Zuby weren't good their freshman season at KU. That's why we had to play Kj at the 5.

[pdub]

So, if you could go back in time and stop GM Bill (who would also be Coach Bill) from choosing to go with Hunter, then Coach Bill would have managed to put together an only somewhat-worse offense around Udeh/Zuby at the 5.

That's the idea?

I just don't see how that's even remotely possible.

Hunter is worth 3 more points per game than Udeh in Bartorvik's rating system - and that's comparing to Udeh this season at TCU - my estimate he'd be another point better at Kansas.

I think Self's track record shows he's going to find a system that gives his team the best chance to win and that he can surprise people with guys they had no idea could be featured on the team.
You all don't.

[jfish26]

So, if you could go back in time and stop GM Bill (who would also be Coach Bill) from choosing to go with Hunter, then Coach Bill would have managed to put together an only somewhat-worse offense around Udeh/Zuby at the 5.

That's the idea?

I just don't see how that's even remotely possible.

I think Self's track record shows he's going to find a system that gives his team the best chance to win and that he can surprise people with guys they had no idea could be featured on the team.
You all don't.

Oh I believe he would do all of those things. But I also believe that the result would be dropping more than 19 spots in AdjO.

[DeletedUser]

So, if you could go back in time and stop GM Bill (who would also be Coach Bill) from choosing to go with Hunter, then Coach Bill would have managed to put together an only somewhat-worse offense around Udeh/Zuby at the 5.

That's the idea?

I just don't see how that's even remotely possible.

Hunter is worth 3 more points per game than Udeh in Bartorvik's rating system - and that's comparing to Udeh this season at TCU - my estimate he'd be another point better at Kansas.

I think Self's track record shows he's going to find a system that gives his team the best chance to win and that he can surprise people with guys they had no idea could be featured on the team.
You all don't.

Self couldn't find a defensive system with this team and he's a defensive coach. I think he'd have struggled to invent an offense that was even remotely successful or efficient with a core of DH Kj Udeh and Zuby playing big minutes. That's just not very much talent. He's a great coach, he's not a miracle worker. We saw that this year.

I think your dislike for HD is causing you to over estimate what Udeh/Zuby were capable of.

[pdub]

"But I also believe that the result would be dropping more than 19 spots in AdjO."

OK.
I don't.

I've shown you the difference between Hunter and Udeh in terms of offensive production according to Bartorvik. I've explained Self's never had a season under 50 before this one. And, this I can't prove but it's probably a big differing point, I think Udeh would have been at least twice as good statistically at Kansas than he was at TCU, a place where they don't create bad ass bigs.

Agree to disagree.

[pdub]

I just don't see how that's even remotely possible.

Hunter is worth 3 more points per game than Udeh in Bartorvik's rating system - and that's comparing to Udeh this season at TCU - my estimate he'd be another point better at Kansas.

I think Self's track record shows he's going to find a system that gives his team the best chance to win and that he can surprise people with guys they had no idea could be featured on the team.
You all don't.

Self couldn't find a defensive system with this team and he's a defensive coach. I think he'd have struggled to invent an offense that was even remotely successful or efficient with a core of DH Kj Udeh and Zuby playing big minutes. That's just not very much talent. He's a great coach, he's not a miracle worker. We saw that this year.

I think your dislike for HD is causing you to over estimate what Udeh/Zuby were capable of.

That's because Hunter is below average on defense.
I said this at the beginning of the season before he played here - he had a good stretch of maybe 2-3 weeks this season - and then he went back to sucking.

[DeletedUser]

Hunter is worth 3 more points per game than Udeh in Bartorvik's rating system - and that's comparing to Udeh this season at TCU - my estimate he'd be another point better at Kansas.

I think Self's track record shows he's going to find a system that gives his team the best chance to win and that he can surprise people with guys they had no idea could be featured on the team.
You all don't.

Self couldn't find a defensive system with this team and he's a defensive coach. I think he'd have struggled to invent an offense that was even remotely successful or efficient with a core of DH Kj Udeh and Zuby playing big minutes. That's just not very much talent. He's a great coach, he's not a miracle worker. We saw that this year.

I think your dislike for HD is causing you to over estimate what Udeh/Zuby were capable of.

That's because Hunter is quite poor on defense.
I said this at the beginning of the season before he played here - he had a good stretch of maybe 2-3 weeks - and then he sucked.

And Udeh is quite poor on offense.

We'll probably never know. Udeh may end up being awesome at TCU. Or he may not. He'd have been better at KU.

[pdub]

I think some of you drastically underestimate what our coach can do with personnel, even ones we might at the beginning of the season doubt on paper.

Doing so is disregarding his entire body of work.

If that's how you feel, fine.
I think you're off base.

[jfish26]

Hunter is worth 3 more points per game than Udeh in Bartorvik's rating system - and that's comparing to Udeh this season at TCU - my estimate he'd be another point better at Kansas.

To fund Udeh on Torvik's website, I had to eliminate the minutes minimum. Are you looking at minutes-adjusted rate stats?

Just trying to see what you're seeing.

[pdub]

PRPG! Hunter 4.3.
PRPG! Udeh 1.3.
pdub's estimate Udeh at KU 2.3.

PORPAGATU! - points over replacement adjusted for usage.

[DeletedUser]

I think some of you drastically underestimate what our coach can do with personnel, even ones we might at the beginning of the season doubt on paper.

Doing so is disregarding his entire body of work.

If that's how you feel, fine.
I think you're off base.

We aren't disregarding it, but he doesn't bat 1.000 and development doesn't occur overnight. Udeh was probably 2 years away from being the player you're seeing in your head. Junior or Senior Udeh. Dok DMac Landen Withey Cole TRob Twins DJax Kaun etc etc etc....they all improved greatly. I think Udeh would have also. I do not think he'd have done so at a significantly faster pace than any of those guys. Mainly because he isn't as talented or skilled as most of those guys.

He didn't bat 1.000 this year with Elmarko McDowell or Timberlake.

[Back2Lawrence]

so then why did Self go out and get HD in the first place?

this is the fly in the ointment.

did he get HD bc he didn't think the other two were good enough?

Perhaps he didn't expect a MASS (not pun intended to the street collective) exodus?

I am relegated to accepting NIL as fact. However...

So far, it seems this means trading in potential long-term growth and maturation for a quick fix to roster holes (even potential ones).

Having pieces that don't fit well in Self's scheme is on Self.

Having pieces that don't seem to be 'leaders of men', 'winners', 'good on defense', 'little bitch boys (ok, maybe that one is mine)' is on the individual players.

They are making 100s of thousands of dollars to be here and play. Perform to standards or here the fans (me) whine. Sorry, these aren't Roy Williams 'Keeds" anymore. These are professional athletes...that right now can opt out (seemingly) when it's a bit too hard, or too much on the line (mostly in football here, but not exclusively).

So, it's not about "the money" in a vacuum to me. If you read this far Fish, I think you are stuck there too much, and it's not a solid position to take. It's short-sighted, IMO, like plug and play fixes to rosters will be much of the time.

[DeletedUser]

PRPG! Hunter 4.3.
PRPG! Udeh 1.3.
pdub's estimate Udeh at KU 2.3.

PORPAGATU! - points over replacement adjusted for usage.

You think Udeh would have a better points over replacement at KU rather than TCU? Even though KU has better players than TCU? Or am I misinterpreting what that advanced stat means?

To me that seems to indicate Udeh wasn't that much better than his replacement at TCU.