NCAA Tournament 2024

[pdub]

You also realize Iowa State was one of the top defensive teams in the country correct and a top 10 team in Kenpom?

Purdue only managed 63 vs NC State.
How many points do you think they'd manage vs a full strength Houston?

[DeletedUser]

Was contemplating sustained success, and what it means to me.

Uconn has 10 seasons with 30 wins in the last 30 years....

Kansas has 14 seasons with 30 wins in the last 30 years....

Does anyone from a major conference have more than KU over that span? I'd guess not. Duke has 13. UNC only has 8. Kentucky has 9.

I was guessing Gonzaga did, but they don't count in my opinion because their conference is sort of trash.....but was surprised to see they only have 8 seasons with 30 wins over than span. 7 in the last 10 years though.



On the flip side KU and Duke have only 5 seasons (each) with double digits losses in the last 30 years....UConn has 15 seasons with double digits losses over that span. Kentucky 13.

In my opinion, since the Roy era began, we are pretty much the definition of sustained success.

UConn has sustained success over that period of time, but not consistently sustained it. They've got some of the highest highs of the elite programs, but also more lows than the other schools I looked at for that time period (the real bluebloods).

[DeletedUser]

How many points do you think they'd manage vs a full strength Houston?

Not sure. Is more than Houston an acceptable answer?

We're splitting hairs here. They are both top 3 teams. Either team could win. Purdue would have been a 1 or 2 pt favorite.

[pdub]

KU also has made the NCAA tournament every single year in those 30 years.

[pdub]

How many points do you think they'd manage vs a full strength Houston?

Not sure. Is more than Houston an acceptable answer?

We're splitting hairs here. They are both top 3 teams. Either team could win. Purdue would have been a 1 or 2 pt favorite.

Incorrect.
Houston would have been a 1 or 2 point ( expected margin actually would be 2.4 so likely 2 ) favorite.
At least to open.


https://web.archive.org/web/20240328092 ... enpom.com/
https://barttorvik.com/?year=2024&sort= ... mingames=0#

[DeletedUser]

Not buying it. I respect those analytics (although any formula that has anyone ahead of UConn makes me question it a bit), but they don't set the vegas lines strictly off of who is ranked higher in those two formulas.

Edey would have eaten their bigs alive in my opinion.

We will never know. They were still a game away from playing even if Houston found a way to beat Duke too, so there's that. Makes you wonder if Shead would have been able to get back by FF. I think Houston probably could have beaten NC State short handed.

[pdub]

Books literally use those formulas ( adjEM and adjT ) to create opening lines, unless there is heavy money they need to make up from futures.
Don't buy it all you want but it is a fact.

Then the line can obviously move depending on where the action is.

[DeletedUser]

So by barttorvik Houston would be favored over UConn?

[pdub]

I prefer Bartorvik but the books use Kenpom so no.

[pdub]

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/betting ... 7957d80498

"Many sportsbooks either use, or are heavily influenced by, stats guru Ken Pomeroy’s game projections."

[DeletedUser]

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/betting ... 7957d80498

"Many sportsbooks either use, or are heavily influenced by, stats guru Ken Pomeroy’s game projections."

The game predictor is different than the actual rankings, correct?

[pdub]

Yes.
Using Kenpom's model, Purdue was expected to beat NC State by 10.
Most books opened at 9.5 or 10.

I'm guessing Vegas ( in general ) is trying to make up some money with UConn as they'd be the likeliest team to have the most future money ( including me ) on them.

Kenpom has UConn has 3.5 faves but the books are opening around 6 - 6.5.

[DCHawk1]

I hate the off-season

[AlOerter]

I hate the off-season

Amen to that DC!

[Sparko]

Came too early. But this was a late 70s quality KU BB team after KM locked it down.

[DCHawk1]

Came too early.

Ummm...this is the basketball forum.

[Sparko]

Came too early.

Ummm...this is the basketball forum.

Sorry. Thought this was the Satellite thread

[pdub]

9:20 ET tip? On a Monday?
Nope.
Still don’t get why they wouldn’t pick 8:20 ET.

[DeletedUser]

9:20 ET tip? On a Monday?
Nope.
Still don’t get why they wouldn’t pick 8:20 ET.

Guess I'll find out who won when I wake up to pee at 2am.

[pdub]

One might think since almost half the US lives in Eastern time that they’d make it a reasonable hour.

I’d way prefer Friday at like 7 and 10 and then Sunday at 6. I think the ratings might be better too.