2024

[jhawks99]

But I like mouth stuff

[KUTradition]

polls, schmolls…

538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent.

[Sparko]

polls, schmolls…

538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent.

10 percent of Harris supporters answer phones or polls. 75 percent of Trump supporters like talking to the nice young man between teaching online religious psychology courses. Somewhere there's a double secret algorithm that adds in the right amount of likely voter suppression.

[Shirley]

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

Gutter's 5 thoughts for 8/3/24

1. Trump manipulating the election in multiple ways. Insane that he feels he will have election officials in his pocket this time. I think he feels he can (and will) win the election - "illegally" if not legally.

2. Trump's VP is jack shit fucking crazy. Trump had better choices. Did Trump actually pick this guy because....... Because why? I don't get it. I like to think there are more people who won't vote for Trump because of Vance than people who will vote for him because of Vance.

3. I believe if Shapiro wasn't a Jew Kamala would pick him in a heartbeat. I also believe he's not the right guy - partially if not mainly because he is a Jew.
You think Pro-Palestine "protests" are bad now, wait until this dude is the VP candidate.

4. Crazy thought and question/s of the day. I am embarrassed I don't know this. If Joe stepped down tomorrow, Harris becomes President. Then she would be running for "re-election" in November. Would she only be able to serve until January of 2029 and then not be able to run in 2029?
Ok, so then would that be a good thing or a bad thing in 2029?

5. If there was a Democratic Primary for every state at the same time, and RFKJr. ran for President as a Democrat, and Kamala wasn't VP but was a Senator from Californian and ran for President as a Democrat, and they were the only two people running. Who would win and by how much?

[Sparko]

Fatman and Slobberin'

[Shirley]

1. I agree, there's no doubt Trump will claim victory, no matter what.

2. Trump was in afterglow due to Biden's performance at the debate, which made him feel invincible in the November election. That, and especially since VP candidates don't matter, why not take the opportunity to curry favor with Tech Bro$ like Leon and Peter Thiel?

3. Smerconish is on CNN every Sat. morning and his weekly online poll asked the following question:

Which carries more political weight: Josh Shapiro's potential struggles with younger and far-left Democrats, or his potential appeal to centrists?

Struggles 19%

Appeal 80%

Just over 40,000 votes

4. She could still serve two more terms even if she finished Biden's current term.

5. 13%

[jhawks99]

Presidents are allowed 10 years in office if I remember my civics classes correctly

[DeletedUser]

Gutter's 5 thoughts for 8/3/24

1. Trump manipulating the election in multiple ways. Insane that he feels he will have election officials in his pocket this time. I think he feels he can (and will) win the election - "illegally" if not legally.

2. Trump's VP is jack shit fucking crazy. Trump had better choices. Did Trump actually pick this guy because....... Because why? I don't get it. I like to think there are more people who won't vote for Trump because of Vance than people who will vote for him because of Vance.

3. I believe if Shapiro wasn't a Jew Kamala would pick him in a heartbeat. I also believe he's not the right guy - partially if not mainly because he is a Jew.
You think Pro-Palestine "protests" are bad now, wait until this dude is the VP candidate.

4. Crazy thought and question/s of the day. I am embarrassed I don't know this. If Joe stepped down tomorrow, Harris becomes President. Then she would be running for "re-election" in November. Would she only be able to serve until January of 2029 and then not be able to run in 2029?
Ok, so then would that be a good thing or a bad thing in 2029?

5. If there was a Democratic Primary for every state at the same time, and RFKJr. ran for President as a Democrat, and Kamala wasn't VP but was a Senator from Californian and ran for President as a Democrat, and they were the only two people running. Who would win and by how much?

1. I think he thinks he's going to win legally.

2. I don't think Vance makes much difference vs whoever else it could have been.

3. I don't think Shapiro makes much difference vs whoever else it could be.

4. I think she'd still be eligible for 2 full terms iir my constitution class correctly.

5. I don't know. I do know if there was a true Dem primary Kamala would not win. And neither would RFK Jr.

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

Gutter's 5 thoughts for 8/3/24

1. Trump manipulating the election in multiple ways. Insane that he feels he will have election officials in his pocket this time. I think he feels he can (and will) win the election - "illegally" if not legally.

2. Trump's VP is jack shit fucking crazy. Trump had better choices. Did Trump actually pick this guy because....... Because why? I don't get it. I like to think there are more people who won't vote for Trump because of Vance than people who will vote for him because of Vance.

3. I believe if Shapiro wasn't a Jew Kamala would pick him in a heartbeat. I also believe he's not the right guy - partially if not mainly because he is a Jew.
You think Pro-Palestine "protests" are bad now, wait until this dude is the VP candidate.

4. Crazy thought and question/s of the day. I am embarrassed I don't know this. If Joe stepped down tomorrow, Harris becomes President. Then she would be running for "re-election" in November. Would she only be able to serve until January of 2029 and then not be able to run in 2029?
Ok, so then would that be a good thing or a bad thing in 2029?

5. If there was a Democratic Primary for every state at the same time, and RFKJr. ran for President as a Democrat, and Kamala wasn't VP but was a Senator from Californian and ran for President as a Democrat, and they were the only two people running. Who would win and by how much?

1. I think he thinks he's going to win legally.

2. I don't think Vance makes much difference vs whoever else it could have been.

3. I don't think Shapiro makes much difference vs whoever else it could be.

4. I think she'd still be eligible for 2 full terms iir my constitution class correctly.

5. I don't know. I do know if there was a true Dem primary Kamala would not win. And neither would RFK Jr.

1. MAYBE but he already has plans in place to win it "illegally".
2. Not "much" but some. Picking Vance was like going to Baskin-Robbins and ordering vanilla.
3. HUGE difference/s in some ways. As a Jew, I would be just fine if he wasn't her choice. I prefer not to have a VP who is so blatantly "pro-Israel" that there is a damn good chance there will be an even bigger rise in anti-semitism if he/she gets elected. Have you seen what's already been going on in DC?
4. I don't know. My guess would be no but that's an UNeducated guess.
5. Kamala by a little.

[DeletedUser]

Gutter's 5 thoughts for 8/3/24

1. Trump manipulating the election in multiple ways. Insane that he feels he will have election officials in his pocket this time. I think he feels he can (and will) win the election - "illegally" if not legally.

2. Trump's VP is jack shit fucking crazy. Trump had better choices. Did Trump actually pick this guy because....... Because why? I don't get it. I like to think there are more people who won't vote for Trump because of Vance than people who will vote for him because of Vance.

3. I believe if Shapiro wasn't a Jew Kamala would pick him in a heartbeat. I also believe he's not the right guy - partially if not mainly because he is a Jew.
You think Pro-Palestine "protests" are bad now, wait until this dude is the VP candidate.

4. Crazy thought and question/s of the day. I am embarrassed I don't know this. If Joe stepped down tomorrow, Harris becomes President. Then she would be running for "re-election" in November. Would she only be able to serve until January of 2029 and then not be able to run in 2029?
Ok, so then would that be a good thing or a bad thing in 2029?

5. If there was a Democratic Primary for every state at the same time, and RFKJr. ran for President as a Democrat, and Kamala wasn't VP but was a Senator from Californian and ran for President as a Democrat, and they were the only two people running. Who would win and by how much?

1. I think he thinks he's going to win legally.

2. I don't think Vance makes much difference vs whoever else it could have been.

3. I don't think Shapiro makes much difference vs whoever else it could be.

4. I think she'd still be eligible for 2 full terms iir my constitution class correctly.

5. I don't know. I do know if there was a true Dem primary Kamala would not win. And neither would RFK Jr.

1. MAYBE but he already has plans in place to win it "illegally".
2. Not "much" but some. Picking Vance was like going to Baskin-Robbins and ordering vanilla.
3. HUGE difference/s in some ways. As a Jew, I would be just fine if he wasn't her choice. I prefer not to have a VP who is so blatantly "pro-Israel" that there is a damn good chance there will be an even bigger rise in anti-semitism if he/she gets elected. Have you seen what's already been going on in DC?
4. I don't know. My guess would be no but that's an UNeducated guess.
5. Kamala by a little.

3. I don't think anyone will switch from Harris to Trump because of her VP choice. Maybe some people would choose not to vote at all based on it? Idk.

5. I don't think Kamala would finish top 3 if similar people ran as 2020.

[Shirley]

[Sparko]

Yeah- and certainly not a stadium where his cult can open fire either.

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

1. I think he thinks he's going to win legally.

2. I don't think Vance makes much difference vs whoever else it could have been.

3. I don't think Shapiro makes much difference vs whoever else it could be.

4. I think she'd still be eligible for 2 full terms iir my constitution class correctly.

5. I don't know. I do know if there was a true Dem primary Kamala would not win. And neither would RFK Jr.

1. MAYBE but he already has plans in place to win it "illegally".
2. Not "much" but some. Picking Vance was like going to Baskin-Robbins and ordering vanilla.
3. HUGE difference/s in some ways. As a Jew, I would be just fine if he wasn't her choice. I prefer not to have a VP who is so blatantly "pro-Israel" that there is a damn good chance there will be an even bigger rise in anti-semitism if he/she gets elected. Have you seen what's already been going on in DC?
4. I don't know. My guess would be no but that's an UNeducated guess.
5. Kamala by a little.

3. I don't think anyone will switch from Harris to Trump because of her VP choice. Maybe some people would choose not to vote at all based on it? Idk.

5. I don't think Kamala would finish top 3 if similar people ran as 2020.

3. I do. Not a whole lot but some. It's a fine line problem/conundrum for the Pubs. They want to say Trump is a better friend of Israel than Biden/Harris but then can't use that against Shapiro, I guarantee you the "Pro-Palestinian" folks will use it against Harris/Shapiro - and get this, I happen to know for a fact that it's a problem the Dems are discussing - that Harris and Shapiro need to be on the same page (not necessarily same sentence - but page) regarding ALL things Israel. They're not.

5. Hard to say/know. Being VP makes a difference. What little I know, I don't think she's been a bad VP but has she done' anything that makes me feel she would "make"/be a great President? No.

[jfish26]

polls, schmolls…

538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent.

I think the most salient shift of the last two weeks is that Democratic messaging and chatter is now approximately equal parts pro-Democrat and anti-Trump. Formerly it was like 10/90.

And just like Trump’s act is wearing thin on soft Rs, *so too is anti-Trump on soft Democrats*.

Biden was the man for the moment in 2020. People wanted steadiness, familiarity and experience after Trump and then Covid and then Trump again upended the entire country.

The fact that Biden isn’t the man for the moment in 2024 is actually a measure of his success: the ship has largely been steadied, and people now want positive momentum and a focus on the future.

[Sparko]

polls, schmolls…

538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent.

I think the most salient shift of the last two weeks is that Democratic messaging and chatter is now approximately equal parts pro-Democrat and anti-Trump. Formerly it was like 10/90.

And just like Trump’s act is wearing thin on soft Rs, *so too is anti-Trump on soft Democrats*.

Biden was the man for the moment in 2020. People wanted steadiness, familiarity and experience after Trump and then Covid and then Trump again upended the entire country.

The fact that Biden isn’t the man for the moment in 2024 is actually a measure of his success: the ship has largely been steadied, and people now want positive momentum and a focus on the future.

But the ship is so steady, many people have forgotten who steered it into the rocks. Weird for sure is the word of this era

[Shirley]

It's Tim Walz for VP.

[KUTradition]

blech

he was like 4th or 5th on my list

i don’t get it

[jhawks99]

blech

he was like 4th or 5th on my list

i don’t get it

Bite me. He's a good choice.

[jfish26]

blech

he was like 4th or 5th on my list

i don’t get it

I think it’s a vibes pick to capitalize on the normie momentum. I was a bit scared off by Shapiro’s vulnerability on the biggest intra-D wedge issue out there.