2024

[MICHHAWK]

since the beginning of time. the folks have voted for the candidate that they believe is in their best interest.

if i think ch is best for me. i vote for ch.

if i think dt is best for me . i vote for dt.

thats the way it works.

[Back2Lawrence]

The more of Trump people see, the less they like him.

I wish I believed this to be true.

That's according to Sarah Longwell, Executive Director of “Republican Voters Against Trump”. She conducts focus groups constantly and has drawn that conclusion. She starts ~ 2:20 in.

She makes another good point at ~ 9:00 minutes in.

The more voters see of Trump, the less they like him’

Well, then if you believe the polls the last week, more voters like Harris less the more they hear about her (truthful or not).

I’m sure every intellectual metric demonstrates your point. Unfortunately, much like with any viewpoint in this day and age, intellectualism has mostly left the discussion.

[Sparko]

I won't watch Trump live on camera. Never again. He is a pathological liar who never shuts up. I am severely galled that anyone would ask him to do anything ever again, let alone run for dictator. That cat and duck eating bullshitter needs to skulk away from the spotlight. Why debate a lunatic?

[jfish26]

since the beginning of time. the folks have voted for the candidate that they believe is in their best interest.

if i think ch is best for me. i vote for ch.

if i think dt is best for me . i vote for dt.

thats the way it works.

Ok. I hope that you will research them with an open mind. As opposed to what “Democrat” and “Republican” meant in 1988 or even 2008.

[twocoach]

since the beginning of time. the folks have voted for the candidate that they believe is in their best interest.

if i think ch is best for me. i vote for ch.

if i think dt is best for me . i vote for dt.

thats the way it works.

Ok. I hope that you will research them with an open mind. As opposed to what “Democrat” and “Republican” meant in 1988 or even 2008.

His use of "ch" shows how serious he is.

[twocoach]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/how- ... 024-09-10/

"Budget forecasters are struggling to keep up with the latest tweaks, and new ideas may be voiced in Tuesday's Harris-Trump debate, but so far all estimates show Trump's agenda piling up much more new federal debt.

Trump has said he plans to extend all tax cuts he pushed through Congress in 2017, exempt Social Security and tip income from taxes, and further cut corporate income taxes.

These changes would likely add $3.6 trillion to $6.6 trillion to primary U.S. deficits over 10 years, according to published individual and comprehensive estimates from four budget forecasters reviewed by Reuters: the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), the Tax Foundation and Oxford Economics.

Harris' plans, which include expanding the Child Tax Credit, a $6,000 bonus tax credit for newborns, a $25,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, and no taxes on tips, could reduce deficits by as much as $400 billion or add up to $1.4 trillion to deficits over a decade, the same forecasters calculated.

The estimates are based on static budget scoring, and are compared against the Congressional Budget Office's current-law "baseline," which already assumes a massive, $22 trillion increase in debt through 2034."

[jfish26]

Does the analysis include the cost of concentration camps for and eventual deportation of (the lucky ones of) more than ten million people?

[Shirley]

Bravo!

I did not see this coming:

Former Bush attorney general endorses Kamala Harris

[jfish26]

Bravo!

I did not see this coming:

Former Bush attorney general endorses Kamala Harris

You have to figure Dubya himself will weigh in.

[Shirley]

Bravo!

I did not see this coming:

Former Bush attorney general endorses Kamala Harris

You have to figure Dubya himself will weigh in.

I hope you're right, but he has said he won't, apparently.

[twocoach]

The "people" of "people are saying":

https://x.com/RexChapman/status/1829234 ... Cuukw&s=19

[jfish26]

I was with a group last that leans heavy R. The consensus response to the debate seemed to be "can I just vote no on both of them?"

As the latest poll numbers roll in (and Harris's lead grows), I am wondering if Harris's real lead is even wider.

Polls are taken among "likely voters." Those generally are registered voters who express an intention or have shown an inclination to vote.

A poll of likely voters would not include new registrants, and cannot be expected to predict what portion of likely voters will not end up voting at all.

It seems to me that both of those "holes" in the polling logic overwhelmingly favor Harris.

While it is certainly true that some portion of new registrants will vote for Trump, and that some percentage of Harris-yes respondents will end up not voting at all, I strongly suspect that there is much more, on both of these, a "problem" on the Trump side than on the Harris side.

[twocoach]

I was with a group last that leans heavy R. The consensus response to the debate seemed to be "can I just vote no on both of them?"

As the latest poll numbers roll in (and Harris's lead grows), I am wondering if Harris's real lead is even wider.

Polls are taken among "likely voters." Those generally are registered voters who express an intention or have shown an inclination to vote.

A poll of likely voters would not include new registrants, and cannot be expected to predict what portion of likely voters will not end up voting at all.

It seems to me that both of those "holes" in the polling logic overwhelmingly favor Harris.

While it is certainly true that some portion of new registrants will vote for Trump, and that some percentage of Harris-yes respondents will end up not voting at all, I strongly suspect that there is much more, on both of these, a "problem" on the Trump side than on the Harris side.

At this point, it is a matter of turnout. Do more people turnout in support of Harris/opposition of Trump or do more turnout in support of Trump/opposition of Harris? No one is switching at this point and I feel like the people who are undecided are really just what you said, people who don't want to pick either of them.

[Sparko]

Normally true Two Coach, but this time a lot of republicans are waking up next to their recently pleasured first cousin and screaming: what have I done? How did I get here? Where are my pants? What is that smell? Oh. My. God.

[twocoach]

Normally true Two Coach, but this time a lot of republicans are waking up next to their recently pleasured first cousin and screaming: what have I done? How did I get here? Where are my pants? What is that smell? Oh. My. God.

We'll see if it is enough of them.

[jfish26]

This is just a mess (and happens to tar, by his presence, a city I grew up in and next to).

This is actually frightening. Trump calls a “press conference”, and it’s just him babbling incoherently, disconnected from reality. The man needs help. (Video: Fox News)

https://x.com/mikesington/status/183466 ... q_-8Yt1KMA

[Sparko]

We need to pull out a reasonable sanitarium in lieu of jail card to get this dangerous man off the stage.

[KUTradition]

Abortion opponents are still trying to block ballot measures — even as voting is about to begin

why do they hate democracy?

[jfish26]

Abortion opponents are still trying to block ballot measures — even as voting is about to begin

why do they hate democracy?

Again, “send it back to the states” was never about actual conservative principles (local rule, etc.).

It was about sending it back to where the gerrymandering, suppression and other rat-fucking exercises were more advanced and less supervised.

And now they’re big-mad that the playbook has been exposed and people are pissed.

[jfish26]

I was with a group last that leans heavy R. The consensus response to the debate seemed to be "can I just vote no on both of them?"

As the latest poll numbers roll in (and Harris's lead grows), I am wondering if Harris's real lead is even wider.

Polls are taken among "likely voters." Those generally are registered voters who express an intention or have shown an inclination to vote.

A poll of likely voters would not include new registrants, and cannot be expected to predict what portion of likely voters will not end up voting at all.

It seems to me that both of those "holes" in the polling logic overwhelmingly favor Harris.

While it is certainly true that some portion of new registrants will vote for Trump, and that some percentage of Harris-yes respondents will end up not voting at all, I strongly suspect that there is much more, on both of these, a "problem" on the Trump side than on the Harris side.

At this point, it is a matter of turnout. Do more people turnout in support of Harris/opposition of Trump or do more turnout in support of Trump/opposition of Harris? No one is switching at this point and I feel like the people who are undecided are really just what you said, people who don't want to pick either of them.

I agree that the net change (2020 --> 2024) will be like 97.5% new (or newly-abstaining) voters, and 2.5% voters changing teams.