Today in "so much winning"!

[twocoach]

Is there a line to which the "I dont give a shit what bad things he does so long as he installs policies I support" people will stop supporting him?

[Shirley]

Is there a line to which the "I dont give a shit what bad things he does so long as he installs policies I support" people will stop supporting him?

While you consider that question, try to avoid reflecting on the number of times you have reflexively assumed, based on experience that: "This is it, surely he won't overcome ___________." Including, but not limited to, when you first heard the Access Hollywood tape, wherein we hear the future president brag about sexually assaulting women.

[MICHHAWK]

That is truly despicable, and once again proves that Trump will use whatever device, ruse, lie, power that he or the federal government has, to further his cause, which is him, and the rest of us, our farms, jobs, trading relationships, savings, investments, 401ks, access to health care, rule of law, etc., be damned.

Anybody that wants to work can work.

We are still trading.

If you want to save you can save.

If you want to invest you can invest.

If you want to/have the ability to contribute to a 401k you can.

If you are sick and need to go to a doctor you can.

If you need a police officer you can call one.


Things aren't perfect for sure. But point to the last time they were.

[twocoach]

That is truly despicable, and once again proves that Trump will use whatever device, ruse, lie, power that he or the federal government has, to further his cause, which is him, and the rest of us, our farms, jobs, trading relationships, savings, investments, 401ks, access to health care, rule of law, etc., be damned.

Anybody that wants to work can work.

We are still trading.

If you want to save you can save.

If you want to invest you can invest.

If you want to/have the ability to contribute to a 401k you can.

If you are sick and need to go to a doctor you can.

If you need a police officer you can call one.


Things aren't perfect for sure. But point to the last time they were.

Eh, OK. Not real sure what this has to do with anything but whatever.

[twocoach]

Is there a line to which the "I dont give a shit what bad things he does so long as he installs policies I support" people will stop supporting him?

While you consider that question, try to avoid reflecting on the number of times you have reflexively assumed, based on experience that: "This is it, surely he won't overcome ___________." Including, but not limited to, when you first heard the Access Hollywood tape, wherein we hear the future president brag about sexually assaulting women.

Oh, I 100% agree. There's no doubt that there are some who will never sway away from him no matter what he does. Fingers crossed that enough people see through his obvious con come election day.

[Shirley]

That is truly despicable, and once again proves that Trump will use whatever device, ruse, lie, power that he or the federal government has, to further his cause, which is him, and the rest of us, our farms, jobs, trading relationships, savings, investments, 401ks, access to health care, rule of law, etc., be damned.

Anybody that wants to work can work.

We are still trading.

If you want to save you can save.

If you want to invest you can invest.

If you want to/have the ability to contribute to a 401k you can.

If you are sick and need to go to a doctor you can.

If you need a police officer you can call one.


Things aren't perfect for sure. But point to the last time they were.

If ignorance is bliss, you must be in ecstasy.

I trade stock options. Not long ago I took a position, (For Paul1, it was a short put vertical.), that went south, and suddenly I had to cover $85,000. I wasn't thrilled about it, but I knew what the risks were going in. The co. I placed the trade on is a Blue Chip stalwart, a co. with low volatility, with a beta of 0.67. When I placed the trade, the odds were in my favor, but things changed. I expect things like that to happen, it comes with the territory. What I don't "expect" is for the president of the United States to deliberately introduce a variable into the market by lying about a conversation that never happened, specifically with the intent of influencing the market. Am I less likely to place trades based on the possibility that the president might do something similar in the future? You're damn right I am. I've spent > 6 years and thousands of dollars learning to trade options in order to pad/increase my income in retirement, and now that plan is being disrupted by a lying president? Life is hard enough without a lying, insecure, drama queen disrupting lives globally just because he can. Fuck him for doing it, and fuck you for not giving a shit.

Retired people on fixed incomes rely on their investments in order to live. They don't deserve to have decades of discipline to save potentially go up in smoke because of a president who lies in order to make himself appear to be a "winner".

Take my situation and extrapolate it to the thousands of American, (or foreign), co.s, who might be considering making capital investments in their businesses here in America. Capital expenditures are down despite the tax cut and despite interest rates being next to nothing. Is it because businesses won't/can't because they too know that they're a presidential tweet away from having their future earnings influenced by yet another lie by Trump, simply so he can appear more favorable? How many jobs that could be created are on hold, or will never be created?

How many farmers aren't planting as many soybeans or raising as many hogs because Trump is conducting foreign/trade policy based on hubris and lies? How many small businesses and jobs in rural America are being impacted by a president who lies like it's breathing?

It's sad you don't have more self-respect and expect more from a president. If you can't muster sufficient self-respect to expect more, then have enough respect for us to expect more, because we do.

[jhawks99]

But his press secretary said he's never lied to the American public.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/29/politics ... index.html

[seahawk]

What Feral said. ^^^

[chiknbut]

That is truly despicable, and once again proves that Trump will use whatever device, ruse, lie, power that he or the federal government has, to further his cause, which is him, and the rest of us, our farms, jobs, trading relationships, savings, investments, 401ks, access to health care, rule of law, etc., be damned.

Anybody that wants to work can work.

We are still trading.

If you want to save you can save.

If you want to invest you can invest.

If you want to/have the ability to contribute to a 401k you can.

If you are sick and need to go to a doctor you can.

If you need a police officer you can call one.


Things aren't perfect for sure. But point to the last time they were.

Eh, OK. Not real sure what this has to do with anything but whatever.

I'm sorry, is this the first time you've read a Michhawk post?

[MICHHAWK]

Drama says the republic is crumbling. I disagree.

The state of our union is not perfect.

[Shirley]

But his press secretary said he's never lied to the American public.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/29/politics ... index.html

When Cuomo handed off his show to Don Lemon, Lemon gave Cuomo s#it for having her on, saying that she offered nothing to viewers.

[Geezer]

The Chinese calmed the markets before trading today. Seems that there is one adult in the room.

[Shirley]

Donald Jr. pulling in Kentucky repubs:

[Shirley]

Drama says the republic is crumbling. I disagree.

The state of our union is not perfect.

[MICHHAWK]

I’m looking out my window right now. I don’t see the chaos in the streets as you describe. Sun is shining. Birds are chirping. Folks are strolling about, waving, smiling, wishing each other a good day.

You try and have yourself a good day now. I know I will.

[seahawk]

There are folks on the east coast of Florida boarding up their houses, putting their yard stuff away, packing the car to evacuate, battening down if they can't afford it to weather a Cat 4 storm, knowing the President has taken away $159 million from FEMA for his vanity wall.

I can guarantee you that they're not having a good day and knowing that FEMA and federal response has been crippled will ensure that they don't have good days in the future. But it's good to know that some of their fellow citizens just don't care.

[japhy]

Some in this country are very eager for a recession and will do whatever they can to speed one up.

I know why. But it makes no sense to me as we are all in the same boat.

It's because we are not all in the same boat. During the last recession money tricked up. The folks at the middle and low end or the economic scale didn't recover the way the top percentiles did. It was because most of their wealth was in their home ownership. Some people made a lot of money off the last recession and they see the next one as another opportunity. The housing market is different in some fundamental ways now that may mitigate some of this but there will still be opportunities to make money if you have access to cash.

A couple of simple examples. In a second tier Colorado resort town small investors purchased second and third homes as investments and rented them out to tourists to make the house payments during the early 2000's. Making the payments and increasing equity was building wealth. Even with small down payments rental rates covered the monthly mortgage/insurance/utility costs. When the recession hit tourism declined and so did rental rates and at the same time owners were underwater on their loans. In 2006 a 2,000sf home had a market value of $135K and was generating $1500/week in revenue. In 2010 the same house had a market value of $60K and was generating $600/month. If you have to let something go you let go of the house you don't live in. In 2011 you could buy that home for $40K cash from the foreclosing entity and rent it to people who lost their home to foreclosure for $600/month. After the recovery this same home could be resold in 2016 for $170K and would generate $1500/week again. There have been studies done that show the increase in second and third home ownership during this period. Another strategy would be to sell a primary home in an area that held it's value at a small loss and then purchase a different primary residence in an area that was suffering from greater loss of value due to foreclosures in the other neighborhood. Say you owned a $350K house and had 15% equity in it and sold it to buy a foreclosed home for $100K in a different part of town in 2010. In 2018 that $350K house would resell for $400K but the $100K house would be worth $250K. In essence you just took $50K in wealth and turned it into $200k in 8 years. A pretty good ROI. In the meantime if you had stock and held onto them, that value rebounded during the recovery and increased. If you had stocks but lost your job and needed to pay your mortgage, you sold them at a loss to someone who held onto them through the recovery.

So the middle class got hollowed out during the last recession and those with access to cash (top 5-10%) made great increases in wealth during that period. Everybody has to eat; you can hunt it down and kill it or you can wait for it to fall at the side of the road. I would call it vulture capitalism.

Maybe people aren't cheering for a recession so much as they aren't as afraid of them now and know there will be opportunities to make real money when it occurs if you already have money.

[TDub]

I agree with all of that japhy. And I reiterate it is not the millenials hoping to buy their first house that should be cheering for a recession, despite what their political affiliations are. Nobody should cheer for a recession, but those with more cash assets stand with more opportunity to improve position in a downturn.

[Deleted User 89]

debating buying a house in the next year or so (would be my first)...can’t decide how long to wait before pulling the trigger

(and i’m not a millennial...lol)

[japhy]

debating buying a house in the next year or so (would be my first)...can’t decide how long to wait before pulling the trigger

(and i’m not a millennial...lol)

A lot of the decision making process should be driven by what is going on in your location. Prices aren't dropping in a lot of places but it is shifting to a more buyer friendly market even in places like Denver. Interest rates will likely drop again this year but don't let interest rates drive your decision, base it on opportunity. Another half percent interest isn't going to change a good deal to a bad deal. Watch these two websites.

https://www.hudhomestore.com/Home/Index.aspx

https://www.homepath.com/#

These will give you a good idea of the foreclosure market in the location you are looking at. Know that buying homes from HUD seems to always be more of a pain than FannieMae but the deals might be better. Always get title insurance, the foreclosure process can get sloppy with such things as property descriptions and you won't find out until you get ready to sell and it can take months to clear up a title. Prices on these sites varies during the calendar year. In a Colorado mountain town they will want to clear their inventory before the weather turns and start with zero inventory in January. Other cold weather locations will probably do the same. If you look at these websites right before Thanksgiving you can find towns with virtual fire sales of houses as they try to dump inventory so that they don't have to maintain them over the winter. In 2011 I went through 10 homes in one day, all were listed on those two sites and the sale prices ranged from $10K to $40K in Pagosa Springs CO. Every one sold to an out of state buyer in a week after listing, every one had a million dollar view, all sales for cash. You sleep and take a shit in your house, you live on your deck looking at the mountains. All but one house was move in ready and had working appliances. My guess is everyone who bought one of those houses at least got 4X their money back if they held on for 5 years. At those prices you could easily rent them and make money, or use them as vacation homes to keep them from getting torn up by renters. You don't necessarily need to live in the house as a primary residence to make money. The cash you make from the sale of a vacation home might be the cash you put down as a bigger down payment on a primary residence 3-5 years later. Do research and look at County Assessors Parcel viewer maps, this will let you know who owns property nearby and what they paid for it and when. Homes can be a lousy investment because you only make money if you sell and then you have to find another place. But residential real estate can be a good way to build wealth. My "home" is my family and my community and other trappings; the house is a building that it resides in, for now. Best to shop for value and look at pictures of your dream home in magazines unless you have stupid money and then anything goes. Always look at the basement and foundation before looking at the kitchen or anything else. If there are cracks in the foundation walk away before anyone falls in love with any other aspect of the house. My wife hated buying a house with me, but she saw the value of that approach later. Just my two cents, OK maybe that was five or six cents.