Kansas Crimson

jfish26 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:52 pm

pdub wrote: ↑Sat Nov 26, 2022 6:46 am Kenpom:
1. Texas
2. Houston
3. Tennessee

6. Baylor

20. Kansas

I think that’s a bit low but I don’t think we are a top 10 team.

I wonder - and not in the "just asking questions" way; I genuinely wonder! - if the metrics adequately weigh strength of schedule on a cumulative basis.

I'm probably not doing a very good job articulating what I mean, but intuitively it would seem like not every x+1 instance in assembling a strength of schedule is equal. It would seem, fundamentally, like the models aren't really built for this crazy of a conference.

I've wondered the same thing in reverse for teams like Gonzaga or Houston.

If you play a top 20 team, after 8 bad teams, is that tough opponent the same as if it was your 5th top20 game that month.

The thing computers can't measure is desperation. WVA was out of control Saturday. About the 15th game in a row where KU had an opponent that tried to wrestle for a victory. AI is better about preventing people from getting jobs.

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 5:49 pm

jfish26 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:52 pm

pdub wrote: ↑Sat Nov 26, 2022 6:46 am Kenpom:
1. Texas
2. Houston
3. Tennessee

6. Baylor

20. Kansas

I think that’s a bit low but I don’t think we are a top 10 team.

I wonder - and not in the "just asking questions" way; I genuinely wonder! - if the metrics adequately weigh strength of schedule on a cumulative basis.

I'm probably not doing a very good job articulating what I mean, but intuitively it would seem like not every x+1 instance in assembling a strength of schedule is equal. It would seem, fundamentally, like the models aren't really built for this crazy of a conference.

I've wondered the same thing in reverse for teams like Gonzaga or Houston.

If you play a top 20 team, after 8 bad teams, is that tough opponent the same as if it was your 5th top20 game that month.

Exactly the line I was trying to go down. Similarly, I’d guess that there’s WAY less predictive value to a front-loaded SOS (like what Gonzaga does) than a back-loaded one (like Duke or Syracuse always do/did).

And then there’s teams like us or Kentucky (when the SEC is good), who peg the needle from November through St. Paddy’s Day.

Still stuck on 7th in Kenpom—actually dropping in stats with these two close home wins.

That said, SOS is 1 and our opp adjO is 5th and adjD is 2nd. Doesn’t relate apples to apples but those rankings would be the No. 1 overall Kenpom team.

We're winning in spite of our offense. We gotta figure some shit out in the next two weeks. We don't want to enter the tournament with a strategy for winning that relies on the opponent missing shots.

CnB will laugh, but defense wins championships

winning ugly, and winning when our offense performs like garbage is a good thing, imo

KUTradition wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:38 am CnB will laugh, but defense wins championships

winning ugly, and winning when our offense performs like garbage is a good thing, imo

I think the bigger point (just expanding on what you said) is that, like so many Bill teams, this one is able to win in the 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s. That’s a great trait.

winning ugly is a good thing. in short spurts.

you can't win 3, 2 game tournaments that way. not that i expect us to win it all. just sayin.

Certainly a defense is key but actually an offense is possibly even more key.
It's why I'm down on our chances this season.

AdjO KU 2023: 21

AdjO champions before NCAA tournament:

KU 6th
Baylor 3rd
KU 8th
Virginia 2nd
Nova 1st
UNC 4th
Nova 11th
Duke 3rd

You have to go back to UConn in 2014 ( which was just an outlier to begin with and they certainly weren't one of the best teams in the country ) to find a team without a top 20 adjO going into March Madness.

Offensive Effeciency

* these stats marked with * below, sans KU's which I just updated, were from last week I didn't update them today but i'm gathering they haven't changed much

Kansas 22 - 18th
Kansas 23 - 81st

* Houston 3rd, Zona 11th, Purdue 12th, Bama 28th, Texas 31st

Last 5 champs: 18th, 2nd, 26th, 5th, 1st

Kansas was 112th in 2021. 88th in 2019. 71st in 2015.

EFG%

Kansas 22 - 29th
Kansas 23 - 73rd

* Zona 5th, Houston 33rd, Alabama 34th, Texas 43rd, Purdue 68th

Last 5 champs: 29th, 7th, 24th, 19th, 1st

Kansas was 196th in 2021. 94th in 2019. 154th in 2015.

TS%

Kansas 22 - 31st
Kansas 23 - 87th

* Zona 4th, Alabama 30th, Texas 40th, Purdue 45th, Houston 54th

Last 5 champs: 31st, 9th, 38th 20th, 2nd

Kansas was 200th in 2021. 94th in 2019. 100th in 2015.

KUTradition wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:38 am CnB will laugh, but defense wins championships

winning ugly, and winning when our offense performs like garbage is a good thing, imo

I'd prefer to, say, be up 4, get a defensive stop, make a bucket, get a stop, make a bucket and suddenly be up 8, rather than be up 4, get a stop, miss, give up a bucket, miss, and then absolutely NEED a stop to not blow a lead.

TTU is basically a second round opponent in the tourney. They made a really tough fade away baseline jumper that was well defended late in the game. A team gets lucky and makes two of those in a row in a game like that and suddenly we're down late and in need of an inefficient offense to get a bucket.

I'd much rather have more control of our fate by being good on both ends.

I said it after the TCU game, and I think it was true (maybe to a lesser extent) last night and also against WVU. They didn't feel like grind it out tough wins. They felt like bad offensive performances in which we got bailed out by the other team missing (mixed with a couple of great individual defensive plays).

I don't want to seem down. I thought we played better against Baylor, OSU, OU, and Texas prior to the past three games .

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:56 am

KUTradition wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 9:38 am CnB will laugh, but defense wins championships

winning ugly, and winning when our offense performs like garbage is a good thing, imo

I'd prefer to, say, be up 4, get a defensive stop, make a bucket, get a stop, make a bucket and suddenly be up 8, rather than be up 4, get a stop, miss, give up a bucket, miss, and then absolutely NEED a stop to not blow a lead.

TTU is basically a second round opponent in the tourney. They made a really tough fade away baseline jumper that was well defended late in the game. A team gets lucky and makes two of those in a row in a game like that and suddenly we're down late and in need of an inefficient offense to get a bucket.

I'd much rather have more control of our fate by being good on both ends.

I said it after the TCU game, and I think it was true (maybe to a lesser extent) last night and also against WVU. They didn't feel like grind it out tough wins. They felt like bad offensive performances in which we got bailed out by the other team missing.

I don't want to seem down. I thought we played better against Baylor, OSU, OU, and Texas prior to the past three games (mixed with a couple of great individual defensive plays).

I think what makes this especially true is that we really don't have a strong half-court offense. And to the extent we have a guy who can get his own...it's Jalen, who is (very understandably!) looking a bit worn down.

Add Jalen's recent struggles to just a decent looking Gradey Dick from 3 and you get the trepidation.

( Dick last 5: 34.1% 3FG )

I agree with Self's take on Wilson, he's as competitive as anyone who's been here, I'd even add to that, he's as confident a player as Self has ever had. And he's showed he can be clutch in late game situations.

But...he's also probably the only go-to player Self's had at KU who was second to last (ahead of only Yesefu) among rotation players in eFG% and TS%.

I think we will need 2 good offensive games to win it all. We can get away with 2 bad offensive games and 2 great defensive games, but at some point we will need both. And we can do both.

We are acting like we "suck" at offense. Totally ignoring for the last 2+ months we've been playing almost NOTHING but good teams. Many of which were good defensive teams.

We've already played as hard of a 6 game stretch (maybe 2) as we will see in the NCAA tournament.

It's easy to say "we won't win it all" and be proven right the vast majority of years for ANY team. No matter how good.

We have as good of a chance as anyone. Will we do it? Probably not. But insert any team name there for this season and my answer is still probably not. Nobody is THAT good. Go through each of the top teams. They all have flaws. Glaring ones. They've all lost games to bad teams. Injury concerns. Depth concerns. Off court issues concerns.

Kenpom takes strength of schedule into account when factoring adjO.

Those efficiency numbers, true shooting %'s and eFG% do not - however they are so far below other title winners it needs to be mentioned.

i agree. winning the BIG 12 is harder than winning the NCAA's this year.

MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:11 am i agree. winning the BIG 12 is harder than winning the NCAA's this year.

This I don't disagree with as I don't think the NCAA tourney is a great barometer of the best teams.

Also, all those big12 teams will also be in the tournament. Plus others.

Also, now that Mich has been outed as a sock, it just makes him even more difficult to take seriously.

I think the only problem with our offense is the ability to make open shots. Ball movement is good, turnovers are low, we get better looks than our opponents.

We just don't have shooting, especially the way Dick and Wilson have been missing open shots lately.

pdub wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:10 am Kenpom takes strength of schedule into account when factoring adjO.

Those efficiency numbers, true shooting %'s and eFG% do not - however they are so far below other title winners it needs to be mentioned.

I know.

But 20th isn't exactly bad either.



I am going to say this now so I don't get banned in a game thread when it's taken the wrong way....whether we win or lose, this season has exceeded expectations. We play ABOVE our talent level. We play the right way. No off court issues. Just a great season. A final four for this team would be an A+ season in my opinion. An awesome season no matter what happens.

Seeing the growth of KJ. DH too. JW showing that patience pays off with an AA season. Self with maybe his best coaching job. Just a ton to be positive about.