an even more frightening perspective

[japhy]

Some locations will have resiliency and options. But places like Florida with karst geology will have issues including saltwater intrusion into their primary groundwater sources.

I think human migration will be the biggest issue. First there will be the issue of where do people from the southeast and southwestern US move to and how doo they get housing. And then there will be the loss of wealth as whole sections of cities/States become uninhabitable.

https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/ ... challenge/

https://www.postandcourier.com/rising-w ... 9efde.html

https://www.zillow.com/research/climate ... s-2-16928/

There is a new thing in real estate information "climate check". It is hardly looked at now but it will become a bigger deal in valuation in the future. I expect politicians to get up in arms in the near future about these ratings. Cuz it will translate into money.

https://climatecheck.com Insurance companies are already looking at these numbers.

[KUTradition]

imo, not enough is being done to “proof” agriculture to insulate it from the unpredictability

[KUTradition]

I think human migration will be the biggest issue.

yes

on a previous iteration of this bored i posted an article entitled Water Wars, that alluded to this very thing

[japhy]

Here you go:
https://gca.org/12-great-examples-of-ho ... te-change/

the first example is exactly what i’m talking about

it’s not all that different from New Orleans. installing taller levees and bigger pumps is a stop-gap bandaid at best

short-sighted, and a waste of time and money

A lot of this will be dependent upon local geology. In 1993 in the big flood here in Missouri a lot of the levees were tall enough. But the duration of the flood caused the pore pressure in the soil on the dry side of the level to build over time. Sand boils occurred and undermined the levees causing their collapse. I remember watching the downtown KC airport being evacuated, every plane in the airport was on the runway and flew out in a matter of an hour. The levees were still two feet above the river but sandboils started forming on the backside and water started pumping into NKC. There is a protective layer of clay on the dry side of our levees that the Cops of Engineers maintains and governs the use of but it did not anticipate the duration of the 1993 flood. What was a 500 or 1000 year flood has been reevaluated and flood plain maps have been redrawn. Owning a building that was not within the flood plain when you bought, but the floodplain moves to include it can be a big financial hit.

[KUTradition]

Here you go:
https://gca.org/12-great-examples-of-ho ... te-change/

the first example is exactly what i’m talking about

it’s not all that different from New Orleans. installing taller levees and bigger pumps is a stop-gap bandaid at best

short-sighted, and a waste of time and money

A lot of this will be dependent upon local geology. In 1993 in the big flood here in Missouri a lot of the levees were tall enough. But the duration of the flood caused the pore pressure in the soil on the dry side of the level to build over time. Sand boils occurred and undermined the levees causing their collapse. I remember watching the downtown KC airport being evacuated, every plane in the airport was on the runway and flew out in a matter of an hour. The levees were still two feet above the river but sandboils started forming on the backside and water started pumping into NKC. There is a protective layer of clay on the dry side of our levees that the Cops of Engineers maintains and governs the use of but it did not anticipate the duration of the 1993 flood. What was a 500 or 1000 year flood has been reevaluated and flood plain maps have been redrawn. Owning a building that was not within the flood plain when you bought, but the floodplain moves to include it can be a big financial hit.

very true

New Orleans is also unique in that it was storm surge rather than “just” river flooding. widening of river basins to allow for their natural meandering will definitely have positive impacts along these lines. coastal areas, or those along rivers where widening the basin isn’t feasible, are very likely in a no-win situation

funny that you mention re-mapping the flood plane…my understanding is that that was done along the Wakarusa outside of Lawrence. unfortunately, it was done to allow for more development rather than to accommodate natural processes

[japhy]

the first example is exactly what i’m talking about

it’s not all that different from New Orleans. installing taller levees and bigger pumps is a stop-gap bandaid at best

short-sighted, and a waste of time and money

A lot of this will be dependent upon local geology. In 1993 in the big flood here in Missouri a lot of the levees were tall enough. But the duration of the flood caused the pore pressure in the soil on the dry side of the level to build over time. Sand boils occurred and undermined the levees causing their collapse. I remember watching the downtown KC airport being evacuated, every plane in the airport was on the runway and flew out in a matter of an hour. The levees were still two feet above the river but sandboils started forming on the backside and water started pumping into NKC. There is a protective layer of clay on the dry side of our levees that the Cops of Engineers maintains and governs the use of but it did not anticipate the duration of the 1993 flood. What was a 500 or 1000 year flood has been reevaluated and flood plain maps have been redrawn. Owning a building that was not within the flood plain when you bought, but the floodplain moves to include it can be a big financial hit.

very true

New Orleans is also unique in that it was storm surge rather than “just” river flooding. widening of river basins to allow for their natural meandering will definitely have positive impacts along these lines. coastal areas, or those along rivers where widening the basin isn’t feasible, are very likely in a no-win situation

funny that you mention re-mapping the flood plane…my understanding is that that was done along the Wakarusa outside of Lawrence. unfortunately, it was done to allow for more development rather than to accommodate natural processes

My wife has a love/hate relationship with the real estate buying process with me. There were a couple of homes we passed on 12 years ago in KCMO because I checked the flood plain maps and it was a hard no. Those decisions turned out to be the right ones in the end. Our KCMO house and our Colorado Springs homes both sit near crests of hills. When we were looking in the San Luis Valley she really wanted to be in the foothills. A couple of fires and she was glad we were in town instead. A wildfire would have to burn across 10 plus miles of irrigated potato fields to reach us. We have a better view of the mountains from the plain than we would have in the trees. And we sit on top of the largest aquifer in the State. There were bigger considerations than what did the kitchen cabinets look like.

[KUTradition]

speaking of migration:

https://www.propublica.org/article/clim ... 0or%20mass

[japhy]

heat = water issues = mass migration = wars? genocide? mass population die offs? pandemics?

Luckily I prolly won't live to see 2050. But both of my daughters likely will. Part of my real estate strategy is to provide a leave behind safe haven for them. I don't really think anything meaningful will be done until it is too late to avert the worst of it. I suspect we may have already passed that point anyway. But highly educated people will still have jobs and income, the big question will be can they afford housing in those last best places? It's fatalistic I know, but I want my daughters to have that chance.

Come on out to Solstice!

[japhy]

And then there is this.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/ ... d=99885122

The AQI in KC yesterday evening was 165. Back down to 77 this morning but will likely ramp up as the day gets hotter.

[ousdahl]

[TDub]

is that a standard weather pattern? Wind blows from the NW commonly over there? just curious....not what I woildve guessed

[ousdahl]

heat = water issues = mass migration = wars? genocide? mass population die offs? pandemics?

Luckily I prolly won't live to see 2050. But both of my daughters likely will. Part of my real estate strategy is to provide a leave behind safe haven for them. I don't really think anything meaningful will be done until it is too late to avert the worst of it. I suspect we may have already passed that point anyway. But highly educated people will still have jobs and income, the big question will be can they afford housing in those last best places? It's fatalistic I know, but I want my daughters to have that chance.

Come on out to Solstice!

I mean it only as a matter of fact when I point out the values of me-first individualism and “the most important thing that matters is accumulation of wealth” are not only why it’s “unlikely anything meaningful will be done until it is too late,” but are what got us to the point of such issues in the first place.

[japhy]

heat = water issues = mass migration = wars? genocide? mass population die offs? pandemics?

Luckily I prolly won't live to see 2050. But both of my daughters likely will. Part of my real estate strategy is to provide a leave behind safe haven for them. I don't really think anything meaningful will be done until it is too late to avert the worst of it. I suspect we may have already passed that point anyway. But highly educated people will still have jobs and income, the big question will be can they afford housing in those last best places? It's fatalistic I know, but I want my daughters to have that chance.

Come on out to Solstice!

I mean it only as a matter of fact when I point out the values of me-first individualism and “the most important thing that matters is accumulation of wealth” are not only why it’s “unlikely anything meaningful will be done until it is too late,” but are what got us to the point of such issues in the first place.

I agree, some make money to "have money" and some make money to "spend it".

It is a matter of fact that you can't change the world, or even a small part of it, without putting your whole self into the effort. Your time, your sweat, your intellect and your money. It is easier to commit your own money than to get someone else to put up the money. Once you put your own equity into something, others are easier to convince that you are serious about what you are trying to do and want to join in. The culmination of my life's work is that I am going to rebuild one small town into a better/equitable and more sustainable community. I am doing that for my daughters, for my buddies Joaquin and Miguel's children, for Defix's son and for Sadie Skeff. It will probably cost every dollar I ever make, but that's why I have worked all of these years to make the money.

[jhawks99]

is that a standard weather pattern? Wind blows from the NW commonly over there? just curious....not what I woildve guessed

I think I read that there is a low over Quebec, causing winds to go counterclockwise.

[KUTradition]

Detroit air quality was second-worse on the planet (Dubai was first) earlier this week

[KUTradition]

https://rollingstone.com/politics/polit ... 234766771/

…the human capacity for denial and suffering may be equal or greater than our ability to change our ways or admit wrongdoing.

[dolomite]

https://rollingstone.com/politics/polit ... 234766771/

…the human capacity for denial and suffering may be equal or greater than our ability to change our ways or admit wrongdoing.

If that’s true then about all that we can do is just adapt.

[KUTradition]

yeah, why in the world would we want to change our patterns of consumption/use

there’s a reason it’s been called an inconvenient truth

if we don’t change our patterns of consumption, adaptability will be out of reach

[ousdahl]

In a first, a climate lawsuit from young people is going to trial

https://www.mtpr.org/montana-news/2023- ... mate-trial

Sixteen young people who say the state isn’t doing enough to address climate change will get their day in court Monday. The lawsuit argues that lack of action violates plaintiffs’ rights under the state Constitution. This is the first youth climate lawsuit to ever make it all the way to trial in the U.S.
…
Increasingly hot temperatures have eroded fishing opportunities statewide as angling closures during the hottest part of the day have become more common. The state Constitution, written in 1972, explicitly says citizens have the right to “a clean and healthful environment.”

That’s one reason this case has made it all the way to trial. Young people nationwide have filed dozens of lawsuits about climate change since 2015, but none have actually been heard in court until now.

[MICHHAWK]

this must be some kangaroo court. just to appease these nincompoops.

nobody gives a hoot what anyone under 35 has to say.