Kansas Crimson

If we roll into the tournament healthy, a loss before the 8 would be a gut punch.

I'd agree with that statement as we would be facing a team not much better than WVU/Texas Tech.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:16 pm

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:08 pm

MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:02 pm Almost every season we are in a position to dream.

I also know that almost every season ends in disappointment. For this reason I try to enjoy every single step of the season.

But not every season is the same. It's silly to treat them all the same.

There's a bit more story to be told, but if we win out into the tournament...it's Bill's best regular season here. Seeing as how we've been the best regular season team in the sport over that time, that's not nothing!

Then we have to do the 2010 parallel, because that regular season is arguably better.

Most here can't stomach that season.

Well, in fairness the '10 season is hard to stomach for how/when/and to whom we lost...not simply THAT we lost.

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:48 pm Well, in fairness the '10 season is hard to stomach for how/when/and to whom we lost...not simply THAT we lost.

QFT

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:48 pm

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:16 pm

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:08 pm

But not every season is the same. It's silly to treat them all the same.

There's a bit more story to be told, but if we win out into the tournament...it's Bill's best regular season here. Seeing as how we've been the best regular season team in the sport over that time, that's not nothing!

Then we have to do the 2010 parallel, because that regular season is arguably better.

Most here can't stomach that season.

Well, in fairness the '10 season is hard to stomach for how/when/and to whom we lost...not simply THAT we lost.

I suppose that's true. I would say the closest parallel to losing in E8 this year would be like the 2016 year, but noticeably worse because of how much better we are this year than the non-Baylor field. 2016 wasn't like that going in.

If we are healthy, we may be the favorite. But I don’t think we are head and shoulders above the field.

MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:02 pm If we are healthy, we may be the favorite. But I don’t think we are head and shoulders above the field.

I'd say we're the favorite by the biggest margin of any team going in since 2015 kentucky team that was undefeated going it.

Although, I'd add that is has more to do with the field than it has to do with us specifically.

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:14 pm

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:44 pm

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:15 pm It may not be nearly as much an impact as playing a worse 2 seed but if my 2 seed was San Diego State no matter what, I'd prefer to play them in Houston than LA.

This gets into that hyper-annoying "but but but UCLA was a 2-seed in California" thing, but: nothing about playing San Diego State in Los Angeles would be particularly worrisome, from a crowd perspective.

We've had this argument.
I didn't agree.
It's less a drive to L.A. than Lawrence is to Omaha.

I would bet my life that more San Diego State fans would attend a game if it were in L.A. than if it were in Houston.

Sure, 3000 instead of 300. Neat.

MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:02 pm If we are healthy, we may be the favorite. But I don’t think we are head and shoulders above the field.

Then you haven't paid attention to advanced statistics. This KU team has a chance to be one of the best ever. EVER.

Specifically KenPom. The gap from Kansas to Gonzaga (1-2) is bigger than Gonzaga to Ohio State (2-8)

That's clearly above the field no matter how you look at it.

The last like 8 out of 10 years, the National Champion is top 10 in KenPom in both offense and defense. KU is the only team that is top 10 in both this year. Duke and San Diego State just missing the cut on that.

KU is the unanimous #1 in March. That hasn't happened since 2015 Kentucky.

This team is damn good.

Enjoy the fucking ride folks. It's going to be a fun March.

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:18 pm

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:42 pm

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:44 am Hypothetically, loosing to a 2 seed, say Duke or even Dayton, in an E8 game isn't a choke job.
2010 was a choke job because we lost in our second game -- and yea, that was a choke job.
2011 was to an 11 seed - so yea, also choke job.

Loosing to a top 10 team in the nation on a neutral floor - I can't label it as such - and I know the expectations are high.

It'd be disappointing.

I think this sort of one-size-fits-all point misses just how much better KU is than the teams that will be on the 2-line. This isn't a 4th-1-plays-1st-2 sort of thing. When healthy and playing four-out, KU is very very far ahead of the rest of the field (Baylor excluded).

So yeah, anything prior to Final Four is in fact a choke job.

We lost to Duke already this season.
And while we certainly have gotten way better and it would SUCK big time to loose to a team like Duke in the Elite 8, I wouldn't consider it a choke job.
I don't think a game against a top 4 seed in this tournament is a choke job...it's just not how college basketball and March Madness works.

We lost to Duke by one possession, without Moss and playing a since-discarded style (which was much worse for us).

MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:02 pm If we are healthy, we may be the favorite. But I don’t think we are head and shoulders above the field.

Ok. Well, you are wrong. We have about the same efficiency margin over the #2 and #3 teams as they have over the #10 team.

Duke had better odds just last season.
Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones.

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:14 pm Duke had better odds just last season.
Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones.

Maybe consider what else plays into that.

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:14 pm Duke had better odds just last season.
Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones.

Freshmen left and right. Couldn't handle March.

Kansas doesn't have a freshman in a key role. That helps.

NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:15 pmKansas doesn't have a freshman in a key role.

Udoka is 17.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:15 pm

NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:15 pmKansas doesn't have a freshman in a key role.

Udoka is 17.

That's good. I laughed.

I'm not disputing I don't like our chances just that we're far away better than the field.
And that's coming from someone who LOVES analytics and Kenpom.

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:20 pm I'm not disputing I don't like our chances just that we're far away better than the field.
And that's coming from someone who LOVES analytics and Kenpom.

If anything, we're better than our numbers show, because our numbers are burdened by a couple months of stubbornly trying to make two bigs happen.

Perhaps ( and I agree ).
But you could have said the same thing about a Duke team that played most of the the season injured.

pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:29 pm Perhaps ( and I agree ).
But you could have said the same thing about a Duke team that played most of the the season injured.

I don't follow why this is relevant, except in the "the best team doesn't always win" sense.

That is acknowledged.