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Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:46 pm
by Back2Lawrence
jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:30 pm
pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:27 pm
DeletedUser wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:24 pm
I just don't see how that's even remotely possible.
I think Self's track record shows he's going to find a system that gives his team the best chance to win and that he can surprise people with guys they had no idea could be featured on the team.
You all don't.
Oh I believe he would do all of those things. But I also believe that the result would be dropping more than 19 spots in AdjO.
Self is the ONLY reason Samford didn't run us out of the gym on Thursday. He had the team ready to go, and coached to Samford perfectly. And it still didn't work with this group.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:49 pm
by Back2Lawrence
Since I don't watch or read much sports news these days, this thread is Christmas morning as a kid level exciting (that's the best kind of exciting for you non-christmas folks). Every time I open it i'm half expecting to read about a decision that has been made, and void of still playing, that's the only thing to really be nervous/excited about with KU right now.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:51 pm
by KUTradition
i just don’t understand the position that Self would’ve worked “miracles” with udeh/zuby, despite failing to find a more productive approach with what he ended up having
but since we like to play hypotheticals, what’s to say we wouldn’t have lost one or the other without HD? what if one of them left anyway (it’s obvious neither of them were up to the competition), and we would’ve had to go the Braun route to fill holes in the front court anyway?
why is that scenario any less likely?
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:54 pm
by DeletedUser
KUTradition wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:51 pm
i just don’t understand the position that Self would’ve worked “miracles” with udeh/zuby, despite failing to find a more productive approach with what he ended up having
but since we like to play hypotheticals, what’s to say we wouldn’t have lost one or the other without HD? what if one of them left anyway (it’s obvious neither of them were up to the competition), and we would’ve had to go the Braun route to fill holes in the front court anyway?
why is that scenario any less likely?
Good point. Zuby might have been on the go regardless. I guess we wouldn't have had to redshirt Clemence or send Cam packing.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:56 pm
by pdub
"You think Udeh would have a better points over replacement at KU rather than TCU?"
Yes.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:58 pm
by pdub
KUTradition wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:51 pm
why is that scenario any less likely?
Because both players would see a better path to minutes and wouldn't have had to see the clear writing on the 2 million dollar wall.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:59 pm
by Back2Lawrence
KUTradition wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:51 pm
i just don’t understand the position that Self would’ve worked “miracles” with udeh/zuby, despite failing to find a more productive approach with what he ended up having
but since we like to play hypotheticals, what’s to say we wouldn’t have lost one or the other without HD? what if one of them left anyway (it’s obvious neither of them were up to the competition), and we would’ve had to go the Braun route to fill holes in the front court anyway?
why is that scenario any less likely?
I didn't argue any of that.
But...the potential of watching growth is better than wasting years of such. I mean, what is a team with HD in the middle's ceiling all things considered. How can you measure the loss of offensive production versus unknown differences in defensive production? Could Timberlake and EJ (and Furphy) have had different spacing, etc. on the floor which could have improved their offensive output/production?
I think it's safe to assume that the two bigs left with the coming of HD. I mean, Zuby left literally hours after the announcement we landed HD came, and Udeh was 6 days later. Had they left before he was 'signed' here I think such scenarios could be debated. Those departures seem directly correlated to HD's coming here.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:01 pm
by DeletedUser
pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:56 pm
"You think Udeh would have a better points over replacement at KU rather than TCU?"
Yes.
Does the quality of the replacement player get factored into that calculation?
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:04 pm
by pdub
Points over Replacement Per Game is mostly driven by offense.
It measures how many points a player contributes to his team over the course of a game over what a replacement player would provide. It's adjusted for strength of opponent, pace of play, and also a usage adjustment as well. It really only measures offensive contribution.
"...the basic idea is to estimate how many more points per game a player creates than a hypothetical "replacement player" would."
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:06 pm
by Back2Lawrence
I don't think it's possible to measure HD's talent in a vacuum based on stats. His offense was great, but offense around him was not, so his 'greatness' didn't make others better offensively. Of course, it's not his 'job' to make these players 'get it' or 'better', but perhaps the way teams could defend everyone else knowing what HD was going to bring led to the offensive stagnation for minutes at a time in just about every game since January.
And his defense...well, in Self's scheme, which usually depends on tremendous individual and team defense alike (hell, a lot of players haven't gotten early playing time while here bc they were defensive liabilities), did not help the team succeed.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:08 pm
by KUTradition
pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:58 pm
KUTradition wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:51 pm
why is that scenario any less likely?
Because both players would see a better path to minutes and wouldn't have had to see the clear writing on the 2 million dollar wall.
at least you aren’t trying to hide your bias, i guess
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:08 pm
by pdub
Not a bias.
If you're a player in the same position as the guy who just got 2 million dollars to come to Kansas what are the odds you'll be starting over him?
What are the odds you'll be playing many minutes at his position?
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:09 pm
by Back2Lawrence
KUTradition wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:08 pm
pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:58 pm
KUTradition wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:51 pm
why is that scenario any less likely?
Because both players would see a better path to minutes and wouldn't have had to see the clear writing on the 2 million dollar wall.
at least you aren’t trying to hide your bias, i guess
do you really think both would have left if HD wasn't brought here, trad?
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:09 pm
by DeletedUser
I don't think Zuby wanted to sit behind Udeh his entire career. I also don't see a scenario where Zuby developed into being capable of playing the 4.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:10 pm
by DeletedUser
Back2Lawrence wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:09 pm
KUTradition wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:08 pm
pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:58 pm
Because both players would see a better path to minutes and wouldn't have had to see the clear writing on the 2 million dollar wall.
at least you aren’t trying to hide your bias, i guess
do you really think both would have left if HD wasn't brought here, trad?
I think he's saying 1 may have still left. Zuby I am assuming since he appeared to be behind Udeh during their freshman year.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:11 pm
by pdub
I think Hunter is an excellent if not offensive college basketball player.
He's so good in that department, he's also generally as a whole an excellent basketball player.
I don't think he's a good leader.
And I don't like him.
But he's still excellent.
I don't think he's so good ( and the analytics and history - Bartorvik and Bill Self's career as a coach ) that KU would drop to a bubble team without him. I think we would be closer to a 4-5 with a healthy Kevin and a 6-7 with a cloned this season Kevin. That is my core argument here.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:12 pm
by Back2Lawrence
it's also easy to argue that since he left almost immediately after HD was signing.
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:13 pm
by KUTradition
Back2Lawrence wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:59 pm
KUTradition wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:51 pm
i just don’t understand the position that Self would’ve worked “miracles” with udeh/zuby, despite failing to find a more productive approach with what he ended up having
but since we like to play hypotheticals, what’s to say we wouldn’t have lost one or the other without HD? what if one of them left anyway (it’s obvious neither of them were up to the competition), and we would’ve had to go the Braun route to fill holes in the front court anyway?
why is that scenario any less likely?
I didn't argue any of that.
But...the potential of watching growth is better than wasting years of such. I mean, what is a team with HD in the middle's ceiling all things considered. How can you measure the loss of offensive production versus unknown differences in defensive production? Could Timberlake and EJ (and Furphy) have had different spacing, etc. on the floor which could have improved their offensive output/production?
I think it's safe to assume that the two bigs left with the coming of HD. I mean, Zuby left literally hours after the announcement we landed HD came, and Udeh was 6 days later. Had they left before he was 'signed' here I think such scenarios could be debated. Those departures seem directly correlated to HD's coming here.
i didn’t mean for that to come off as accusing you of arguing that
i was just throwing out a hypothetical
i also don’t think we can just assume that everything would have transpired a certain way, had HD not come. there’s just no way to know for certain
any certainty “you” might have, to seems to be driven more by bias than anything
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:15 pm
by KUTradition
Back2Lawrence wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:09 pm
KUTradition wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:08 pm
pdub wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:58 pm
Because both players would see a better path to minutes and wouldn't have had to see the clear writing on the 2 million dollar wall.
at least you aren’t trying to hide your bias, i guess
do you really think both would have left if HD wasn't brought here, trad?
i don’t know, and neither does anyone but them (and their minds may have changed along the way, too…)
Re: Goodbye Hunter Dickinson
Posted: Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:15 pm
by KUTradition
Back2Lawrence wrote: ↑Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:12 pm
it's also easy to argue that since he left almost immediately after HD was signing.
it’s easy to argue when you’re trying to shape a certain narrative