Kansas Crimson

Goldman Sachs just raised the probability of a US recession to 26% today. Highest it's been in sometime I believe.

though, not due to taxes on the rich.

TDub wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 8:30 am Goldman Sachs just raised the probability of a US recession to 26% today. Highest it's been in sometime I believe.

though, not due to taxes on the rich.

Seems like sort of a self-fulfilling-prophecy thing - a correction need not result in a recession.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 8:42 am

TDub wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 8:30 am Goldman Sachs just raised the probability of a US recession to 26% today. Highest it's been in sometime I believe.

though, not due to taxes on the rich.

Seems like sort of a self-fulfilling-prophecy thing - a correction need not result in a recession.

panic ensues, we are not calm, clear thinking creatures as a whole.

Broadly, I'm not mad about some steam being bled off from the system. For the only things I care about, way better for that to happen now than in October.

TDub wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 8:30 am Goldman Sachs just raised the probability of a US recession to 26% today. Highest it's been in sometime I believe.

though, not due to taxes on the rich.

Seems like all the mechanisms of the Fed are working. From my dumb understanding of how they are dealing with interest rates, they wanted to leave them high until we got just about to the precipice of a recession before they dropped the rates. So I would expect them to drop rates by early September to see this get turned back in the right direction.

After the great GDP gain, I guess good news is bad news cycle continues. The people predicting recession caused a global catastrophe in 2008. So they know how to let off steam. But interest rates have been gamed.

While I think we're all a little too quick to tie economic events to political events, I absolutely think that the turning of the tides on the 2024 election has some relationship to the stock markets.

Now that it is appearing far less likely today than a month ago that we are in for a massive handout to corporates, and a massive handout to the wealthy, of course the markets will cool some.

Smart money versus selfish rashness is a thing. Biden and Harris stability made recovery and gains possible. But Trump's illusions were intoxicating to the buy-back class. Investing in your business in a way that is opposite of what John Deere just did, cooking the books and shedding quality. I have to laugh though. Fears of a recession breeding recession. And interest rates are too high. Anyone with half a brain knew this.

twocoach wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 9:09 am

TDub wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 8:30 am Goldman Sachs just raised the probability of a US recession to 26% today. Highest it's been in sometime I believe.

though, not due to taxes on the rich.

Seems like all the mechanisms of the Fed are working. From my dumb understanding of how they are dealing with interest rates, they wanted to leave them high until we got just about to the precipice of a recession before they dropped the rates. So I would expect them to drop rates by early September to see this get turned back in the right direction.

3% or lower interest rates, like we had several years ago, are not sustainable forever.

I actually think rates are fairly reasonable right now, when you compare them to historic interest rates rather than just historically low interest rates. The sticker shock is wearing off of rates in the 5-7% range.

It is not slowing down investors from what I can tell. Still plenty of action in the commercial RE market where activity is not solely rate driven. Obviously it reduces the refi action for banks to make money (and appraisers), but that's OK.

Real estate is still super hot. Profit taking on the markets is cyclical too. Seems like everyone expected a drop in rates though.

Sparko wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 9:49 am Real estate is still super hot. Profit taking on the markets is cyclical too. Seems like everyone expected a drop in rates though.

Residential RE prices in many places are at all time highs or close to it. A drop in rates will send values even higher. Reduce inventory even more. And effectively price out the average person from ever moving from their current residence, unless they are into paying way more for slightly less.

Consumers may have expected a drop in rates, but I do not believe most financial institutions expected rates to drop. At least not significantly. And not anytime soon.

Rates are fine in my opinion. Are people expecting or hoping for 0-1% interest rates? That doesn't make sense to me.

twocoach wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 9:09 am

TDub wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 8:30 am Goldman Sachs just raised the probability of a US recession to 26% today. Highest it's been in sometime I believe.

though, not due to taxes on the rich.

Seems like all the mechanisms of the Fed are working. From my dumb understanding of how they are dealing with interest rates, they wanted to leave them high until we got just about to the precipice of a recession before they dropped the rates. So I would expect them to drop rates by early September to see this get turned back in the right direction.

I don't know or claim to know how it all works but I believe the current volatility today has something to do with the restructuring of the Japanese Yen and how the currency rates are changing along with that. The Japanese markets tanked and Chinese markets struggled and some of that has bled over into our market as things realign

mostly what the folks understand, is they are getting hammered from every direction.

MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 10:11 am mostly what the folks understand, is they are getting hammered from every direction.

You're only getting hammered if you need to take that money out of the market today. Overwise, it's just a number.

what if you have to fill up the tank.

what if you have to feed the family.

what if you have to book a hotel room.

what if you have to put a new roof on the house.

etc

etc

eyc

what if i have to buy the grandbaby new skates.

MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 10:16 am what if you have to fill up the tank.

what if you have to feed the family.

what if you have to book a hotel room.

what if you have to put a new roof on the house.

etc

etc

eyc

Do you take money out of your stock account to pay for a tank of gas or groceries? No. Come on.

the stock market is only one of the directions the folks are being hammered from.

TDub has it right. But add the Fed giving mixed signals on rates I think.

this economic climate is not good for the anyone but dt crowd.

MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Mon Aug 05, 2024 10:19 am the stock market is only one of the directions the folks are being hammered from.

Look, keep advocating for the republican asshats conspiring to steal your crunchwraps. They already ruined your drinking water.