Kansas Crimson

Bronze this year with a healthy Bean has us 7-2 in conference, 10-2 overall.

hartjack8 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 6:01 pm

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 5:14 pm

hartjack8 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 4:21 pm
What??? LORD.....you guys have a short memory. If JD played all this year we lose to Texas but that is it. We win all the other games. I like Bean but his is not on JD's level. Remember not Ly but the year before. JD is redshirting and Bean is starting. We terrible. Bean gets hurt and they start JD. It was like night and day. JD all day everyday no question.

The problem is right there in your post. Hard to trust backs.

Maybe. But the big picture is you go for the gold or just decide to settle for the bronze. Your decision but I say go for the GOLD. May not work but I wouldn't settle for bronze.

I just look at the schedule next year and see playoff if we even get silver. So, in this hypothetical, I might take a bronze and hope he plays like silver, rather than a gold who might be nothing at all.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 7:05 pm

hartjack8 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 6:01 pm

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 5:14 pm

The problem is right there in your post. Hard to trust backs.

Maybe. But the big picture is you go for the gold or just decide to settle for the bronze. Your decision but I say go for the GOLD. May not work but I wouldn't settle for bronze.

I just look at the schedule next year and see playoff if we even get silver. So, in this hypothetical, I might take a bronze and hope he plays like silver, rather than a gold who might be nothing at all.

I will say this another way. If JD is healthy Bean never sees the field. EVER. Ok maybe he gets out there for some of coach Andy's gadget plays.
This isn't some Wally Pipp story. JD is a much better QB. JD can take this team to a Big12 championship. I like Bean but he is not getting us into the playoffs. Either way it does not matter cause Bean can not be your QB anymore and JD can be our QB for the next two years if he so decides.

hartjack8 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:45 pm

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 7:05 pm

hartjack8 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 04, 2024 6:01 pm
Maybe. But the big picture is you go for the gold or just decide to settle for the bronze. Your decision but I say go for the GOLD. May not work but I wouldn't settle for bronze.

I just look at the schedule next year and see playoff if we even get silver. So, in this hypothetical, I might take a bronze and hope he plays like silver, rather than a gold who might be nothing at all.

I will say this another way. If JD is healthy Bean never sees the field. EVER. Ok maybe he gets out there for some of coach Andy's gadget plays.
This isn't some Wally Pipp story. JD is a much better QB. JD can take this team to a Big12 championship. I like Bean but he is not getting us into the playoffs. Either way it does not matter cause Bean can not be your QB anymore and JD can be our QB for the next two years if he so decides.

I love Jalon. I think he can take us to the playoff. I think he can win the Heisman.

You should not take my response to this very specific hypothetical to mean anything different.

But with our roster and schedule being what they are next year, and back injuries being what they are, if I was forced to choose between 2024 Jalon or 2024 Bean, I would choose Bean.

Not because he’s better. He’s not.

But because, with our roster and schedule being what they are next year, he is very obviously good enough. And with back injuries being what they are, I would choose good enough (from a guy without specific, known, major injury risk) over great (from a guy that, frankly, no one would be surprised one bit if he misses some/all of the season).

I’ll put this a different way - our playoff hopes almost certainly die if we lose two games.

Based on what I saw this year, if Jalon misses three games next year, what are the chances we win two of those three? Not great. Even if I put Lindenwood in there.

I would take JD over JB for next year. He is significantly better. It's still football. You've got to go win the games. Being good this year and having a lot of returning players doesn't automatically get you in the CFB playoff.

I get what you're saying, but it's not like JB is immune to injury either.

I think the aura of Daniels is a touch high - the numbers don't support 'significantly' better.
Hell, the numbers don't even support better.

Here are the last 2 years of data to prove it ( 2022 and 2023 seasons ).
Games where the QB played the majority of snaps ( i.e. the TCU game is out for Daniels, the Tech game is out for Bean ):

Daniels
11 games
203/295, 2630 yards passing, 23 TD, 5 INT, 493 yards rushing, 7 rushing TD

239 YPG, 2.0 TD, .45 INT, 68.8%, 115.5 passer rating
44.8 RYPG, .63 RTD
TOTAL: 283.8 YPG, 2.6 TD's per game

Bean
13 games
206/324, 3349 yards passing, 32 TD, 11 INT, 470 yards rushing, 6 TD

257.6 YPG, 2.9TD, .84 INT, 63.5%. 116.9 passer rating
36.1 RYPG, .5 TD
TOTAL: 293.7 YPG, 3.4 TD's per game


So Bean scored more total TDs per game and had more total yards per game.
Yes, that comes with .4 more INT's per game and a lower completion % but even with those Bean actually has a slightly better passer rating.

And of important note, the average Sagarin rating of the teams Bean faced ( 13 games ) was over 20 rankings higher.

Beans average opponent Sagarin: 46.9
Daniels: 67.8

pdub wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:34 am I think the aura of Daniels is a touch high - the numbers don't support 'significantly' better.
Hell, the numbers don't even support better.

Here are the last 2 years of data to prove it ( 2022 and 2023 seasons ).
Games where the QB played the majority of snaps ( i.e. the TCU game is out for Daniels, the Tech game is out for Bean ):

Daniels
11 games
203/295, 2630 yards passing, 23 TD, 5 INT, 493 yards rushing, 7 rushing TD

239 YPG, 2.0 TD, .45 INT, 68.8%, 115.5 passer rating
44.8 RYPG, .63 RTD
TOTAL: 283.8 YPG, 2.6 TD's per game

Bean
13 games
206/324, 3349 yards passing, 32 TD, 11 INT, 470 yards rushing, 6 TD

257.6 YPG, 2.9TD, .84 INT, 63.5%. 116.9 passer rating
36.1 RYPG, .5 TD
TOTAL: 293.7 YPG, 3.4 TD's per game


So Bean scored more total TDs per game and had more total yards per game.
Yes, that comes with .4 more INT's per game and a lower completion % but even with those Bean actually has a slightly better passer rating.

All of this, and your next post, is well-put. I don't think it can be strictly apples-to-apples, because Bean's team this year (and, really, it was his team this year) was so much better on the line, and I also think meaningfully better at WR (because of development), than what Daniels played with last year.

I do think that, from a Madden rating standpoint (disregarding durability), Daniels is a 94 and Bean is an 87. Ish.

But, let's say Ballard is...a 71.

Over a 12 game schedule...

...if Daniels plays 8 of 12 games (and Ballard gets 4), our average QB is 86.3.

...if Bean plays 11 of 12 games (and Ballard gets 1), our average QB is 85.6.

That's sort of the break-even point. (And of COURSE this is a highly unserious way to look at it.)

Knowing what we know about the schedule and what's around them...I don't think you're clearly WRONG picking either scenario. But, for me, I would play it conservative (in this specific, silly hypothetical).

For me the apples-to-apples is correct but countered by the SOS and the fact that Daniels and Bean played in both seasons ( though Bean played more of this games this season ) and Daniels in his three games this season got to face the easiest of the opponents.

I'd put that number closer personally.
For me, more like 91 and 87 - but with Daniels' injury rating a 60 and Bean an 85.
( Bean, I think, if not for the coaches, could have played v ksu and honestly probably would have come back in for Tech had we let him )

That injury rating, the fact I don't think that Daniels is substantially better ( though I agree he IS better ), and the given rapport with Bean and the WR's this season would have me picking Bean.

I agree a full healthy season of Daniels would be better than one from Bean.

And that 60 injury rating means a non zero chance that Daniels plays the season opener and can't play another game.

In that scenario, forget gold, silver or bronze.

pdub wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:06 am And that 60 injury rating means a non zero chance that Daniels plays the season opener and can't play another game.

In that scenario, forget gold, silver or bronze.

I wouldn't bet money I couldn't lose on him taking a snap next year. Backs are fucking scary, man.

And regarding your earlier scenario - Daniels 8 of 12 might be a 'higher' QB rating than Bean 11 of 12 but those 4 games of no Daniels would put us at a much greater chance at not reaching 'gold'...i.e. dropping 3 or 4 of those games and having a season similar ( or worse! ) than this one.

But a Bean 11 of 12?
I wouldn't put it past him for that to be 10 wins.

pdub wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:55 am And regarding your earlier scenario - Daniels 8 of 12 might be a 'higher' QB rating than Bean 11 of 12 but those 4 games of no Daniels would put us at a much greater chance at not reaching 'gold'...i.e. dropping 3 or 4 of those games and having a season similar ( or worse! ) than this one.

But a Bean 11 of 12?
I wouldn't put it past him for that to be 10 wins.

Agree 100000%. Which is what makes this question weird (and fun) - our best chance at reaching the team-success ceiling...would seem (to me) to pick the guy with the lower individual-success ceiling.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:03 am

pdub wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:55 am And regarding your earlier scenario - Daniels 8 of 12 might be a 'higher' QB rating than Bean 11 of 12 but those 4 games of no Daniels would put us at a much greater chance at not reaching 'gold'...i.e. dropping 3 or 4 of those games and having a season similar ( or worse! ) than this one.

But a Bean 11 of 12?
I wouldn't put it past him for that to be 10 wins.

Agree 100000%. Which is what makes this question weird (and fun) - our best chance at reaching the team-success ceiling...would seem (to me) to pick the guy with the lower individual-success ceiling.

Look Bean being the back up QB ly was huge. However he gone. He can never suite up for KU again.
Time to get on the JD bandwagon. JD for Heisman. You know that kind of thing. Now get off of Bean before Sparko gets in here and starts talking about John Hadl should be the starting QB.

Right.
This was an offseason what if.

pdub wrote: ↑Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:59 am Right.
This was an offseason what if.

Just think, we're only two months and change out from getting tsked-tsked over us (here) "overlooking" Canisius or Directional Dakota Tech or some shit.

Jason Bean reportedly spoke with every NFL team this week and had the most interest at the Hula Bowl. Did not play that I could see. Wonder if that was on advice of his agent because he looks to be on someone's radar

Sparko wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:11 pm Jason Bean reportedly spoke with every NFL team this week and had the most interest at the Hula Bowl. Did not play that I could see. Wonder if that was on advice of his agent because he looks to be on someone's radar

He played. We commented about it on another thread. He POSSIBLY lost/cost himself money by playing.

No stats I could see. Crappy game. The same score last year apparently