Re: an even more frightening perspective
Posted: Mon Dec 16, 2024 8:33 am
I assume Ron Desantis will get right on this.
Norf Carolina figured out how to deal with this issue over a decade ago.
Property values! First action will be to keep real estate disclosure laws from including foundation settlement information. Only require the building's structural reports to be disclosed. What you don't know won't hurt real estate values.Dozens of luxury beachfront condos and hotels in Surfside, Bal Harbour, Miami Beach and Sunny Isles are sinking into the ground at rates that were “unexpected,” with nearly 70 percent of the buildings in northern and central Sunny Isles affected, research by the University of Miami found. The study, published Friday night, identified a total of 35 buildings that have sunk by as much as three inches between 2016 and 2023, including the iconic Surf Club Towers and Faena Hotel, the Porsche Design Tower, The Ritz-Carlton Residences, Trump Tower III and Trump International Beach Resorts. Together, the high rises accommodate tens of thousands of residents and tourists. Some have more than 300 units, including penthouses that cost millions of dollars.
“Almost all the buildings at the coast itself, they’re subsiding,” Falk Amelung, a geophysicist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science and the study’s senior author, told the Miami Herald. “It’s a lot.” Preliminary data also shows signs that some buildings along the coasts of Broward and Palm Beach are sinking, too.
Experts called the study a “game changer” that raises a host of questions about development on vulnerable barrier islands. For starters, experts said, this could be a sign that rising sea levels, caused by the continued emission of greenhouse gases, is accelerating the erosion of the limestone on which South Florida is built.
“It’s probably a much larger problem than we know,” Paul Chinowsky, a professor of civil engineering at the University of Colorado Boulder, told the Herald. Initially, researchers looked at satellite images that can measure fractions of an inch of subsidence to determine whether the phenomenon had occurred leading up to the collapse of Champlain Towers in Surfside, the 2021 catastrophe that killed 98 people and led to laws calling for structural reviews of older condos across the state. The researchers did not see any signs of settlement before the collapse “indicating that settlement was not the cause of collapse,” according to a statement. Instead, they saw subsidence at nearby beachside buildings both north and south of it.
“What was surprising is that it was there at all. So we didn’t believe it at the beginning,” Amelung said, explaining that his team checked several sources that confirmed the initial data. “And then we thought, we have to investigate it,” he said. In total, they found subsidence ranging between roughly 0.8 and just over 3 inches, mostly in Sunny Isles Beach, Surfside, and at two buildings in Miami Beach – the Faena Hotel and L’atelier condo – and one in Bal Harbour. It’s unclear what the implications are or whether the slow sinking could lead to long-term damage, but several experts told the Herald that the study raises questions that require further research as well as a thorough on-site inspection.
“These findings raise additional question which require further investigation,” Gregor Eberli, a geoscience professor and co-author of the study, which was published Friday in the journal Earth and Space Science, said in a statement. Lead author Farzaneh Aziz Zanjani pointed to the need for “ongoing monitoring and a deeper understanding of the long-term implications for these structures.” Though the vast majority of affected buildings were constructed years or decades before the satellite images were taken, it is common for buildings to subside a handful of inches during and shortly after construction — a natural effect as the weight of the building compresses the soil underneath. And sinking doesn’t necessarily create structural issues. “As long as it’s even, everything’s fine,” Chinowsky said, placing his hands next to each other, “the problems start when you start doing this,” he said, then moving one hand down faster than the other. But such uneven sinking, known as differential subsidence, can cause significant damage to buildings, he said. “That’s where you can get structural damage,” he said. More research is needed to determine whether the buildings are sinking evenly or not.
“Sometimes it can be dangerous, sometimes not – it will have to be evaluated,” said Shimon Wdowinski, a geophysicist at Florida International University, told the Herald. Wdowinski worked on a different 2020 study that showed that the land surrounding the Champlain Towers – not the buildings themselves – had been subsiding back in the nineties, though that alone couldn’t have led to the collapse. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has yet to release a final report on the cause but a Herald investigation pointed to design and construction flaws as well as decades of maintenance issues.
For the 35 buildings shown to be sinking in the University of Miami’s study, he said, the next step is to check the integrity and design plans. “If there is differential subsidence, it could cause structural damage, and it would need immediate attention,” he said.
Cracks in walls, utilities that are breaking, or doors and windows that don’t shut as easily as they used to are all signs of differential subsidence, said Hota GangaRao, a professor of civil engineering and the director of the constructed facilities center at West Virginia University.
“In some extreme scenarios, the buildings at some point sink much more dramatically with time,” he said. If that subsidence is differential, “then it is very, very serious,” GangaRao said. Cities react to study Larisa Svechin, the mayor of Sunny Isles Beach, where more than 20 buildings are affected, said that “my priority is the safety of our residents.” Contacted by the Herald Saturday afternoon, she said she was not aware of any structural issues but called an immediate meeting with the city manager. Following that meeting, she said that all required building inspections are up to date and that “the law also requires inspection records to be posted online and shared with residents.”
Charles Burkett, the mayor of Surfside, told the Miami Herald that he had not heard of the study nor was he aware of any subsidence of buildings. “I’d like to know if it’s unsafe,” he said on Saturday, adding that he will “review [the study] in due time.” Other officials could not be reached immediately, and several of the affected buildings contacted by the Herald said that management would not be available for comment before Monday.
Some settlement appears to have started right around the time when the construction of new buildings nearby began, and when vibration might have caused layers of sand to compress further – just like shaking ground coffee in a tin will make room for more. The pumping of groundwater that seeps into construction sites could also cause sand layers to shift and rearrange. Though there appears to be a strong link to nearby construction for some buildings, it is unlikely to be the only explanation for the 35 sinking buildings, as some settlement had started before any construction began nearby, and it persisted after construction ended, the researchers found. “There’s no sign that it’s stopping,” Amelung said of the settlement.
Experts also pointed to the impact the emission of fossil fuels and the resulting warming of the climate is having on the overall stability of Miami-Dade’s barrier islands. For one, rising sea levels are now encroaching on sand and limestone underneath our feet. That could lead to the corrosion of the pillars on which high-rises stand – a serious issue, GangaRao said, though if that’s the case “there may be a way to salvage these buildings,” by fixing the foundation.
Stronger waves, fresh water dumped by heavier rainfalls and more sunny-day flooding could also add to the erosion of the limestone that all of South Florida is built on, Chinowsky said. Already a soft rock that is riddled with holes and air pockets, further erosion could destabilize the base of most constructions, Chinowsky said, comparing it to “standing on sand, and someone came with a spoon and started taking the sand out.” “I would expect that they would see this all throughout the barrier islands and on into the main coastline – wherever there is limestone, basically,” he said. “That’s what makes the whole South Florida area so unique, because of that porous rock, the limestone, all that action is happening where you can’t see it, and that’s why it’s never accounted for to this level,” he said. Here is the full list of buildings identified as experiencing between roughly 0.8 and just over 3 inches of subsidence between 2016 - 2023: Regalia, Ocean II, Residences by Armani Casa, Ocean III, Marenas Beach Resort, Millennium Condominiums, Porsche Design Tower, Bentley Residence Development site, Trump International Beach Resort, Aqualina Resort and Residences on the Beach, The Mansions at Aqualina, Pinnacle, Chateau Beach Residences, Double Tree Resort and Spa, Sole Mia A Noble House Resort.
Also: Florida Ocean Club, Ocean Four Condominium, Muse residences, Jade Ocean Condos, Jade Beach Condos, Jade Signature Condominium, Kings Point Imperial Condo, Trump Tower III, The Ritz-Carlton Residences, Oceana Bal Harbour, Fendi Chateau, Marbella Condominium, Waverly, Carlisle on the Ocean, Residence Inn by Mariott, Luxury Condo Cabarete, The Surf Club North Tower, The Surf Club Hotel Tower, The Surf Club South Tower, Arte Residence, 87 Park Tower, L’atelier Condominium, Faena House.
Norf Carolina figured out how to deal with this issue over a decade ago.
Buyer beware.History is a valuable teacher, but there are some topics it knows nothing about.
So when lawmakers in North Carolina controversially proposed a bill in 2011 to ban scientific predictions of accelerated sea level rise that were inconsistent with outdated "historical data", it literally became a joke.
"If your science gives you a result you don't like, pass a law saying the result is illegal," Stephen Colbert quipped. "Problem solved."
Despite the controversy, an amended version of the bill – known as HB 819 and backed by a business-backed consortium of North Carolina property owners called NC–20 – passed shortly thereafter in 2012.
With the "no-kidding nightmare" of Hurricane Florence now bearing down upon North Carolina and the rest of the east coast, the somber irony in all this is how swiftly NC–20's efforts became so dangerously self-defeating.
The groups' moribund website outlines its major goals in diverting doublespeak: "Science-based environmental regulation" and "Science-based sea-level rise projections".
But above those concerns, their core ideal sits paramount: "Equitable treatment of coastal homeowners in the matter of homeowners and dwelling insurance".
In other words, this was about property values and business interests.
"Sea level rising, simply put, makes every coastal flood deeper and more destructive," Climate Central CEO Ben Strauss, who runs a climate news nonprofit.
"Ignoring it is incredibly dangerous."
Even more sharply to the point, scientists are increasingly discovering (and telling us) that while climate change might not cause hurricanes like Florence, it is making fierce weather fiercer.
"Quite simply, Hurricane Florence is a storm made worse by climate change," writes meteorologist Eric Holthaus in an op-ed for The Washington Post.
"A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour – producing heavier downpours and providing more energy to hurricanes, boosting their destructive potential. We already have evidence of these trends from around the world. This is no longer just a theory."
In defence of North Carolina's representatives, not every voice disputed the science back in 2012.
"By putting our heads in the sand, literally, we are not helping property owners," Democrat Deborah K. Ross said at the time in vocal criticism of the bill.
"We are hurting them. We are not giving them information they might need to protect their property. Ignorance is not bliss. It's dangerous."
The background behind HB 819 is tied to a 2010 report assessing sea-level rise along North Carolina's coasts, which predicted the ocean would likely reach 1 metre (39 inches) higher by 2100, although it pointed out an even greater surge was possible.
Fearing this gloomy science would hamper economic development in the region, pro-business groups fought against its inclusion in any aspects of state coastal management – and for the most part succeeded.
Now, six years later, almost 1.5 million people have been ordered to evacuate the east coast.
You can only wonder how many of them live and work in areas in North Carolina that could have been better protected against threats like Florence – or even abandoned outright – if only scientists had been listened to, rather than legislated against.
"Coastal development flourishes as more beachfront buildings, highways, and bridges are built to ease access to our beautiful beaches," coastal geologist Orrin H. Pilkey from Duke University wrote in The News & Observer last week.
"The time has come to recognise that we cannot hold the shoreline still as the level of the sea rises… We must begin the retreat now."
