21-22 lineup

[pdub]

[Mjl]

Now, no transferring Dajuan, don't let me down.

[hasbeen]

I bought this to get a rundown on the rest of the Big 12. Pretty good stuff in here about Braun's regression from 3 and why he figures to improve this season and how bad KU was on 2-point shots last year.

They have KU winning Big 12, 1-seed in South, and losing to the Gonzaga in National Championship.

[ousdahl]

What were the details of Braun’s regression?

And how bad were we on 2 point shots?

[hasbeen]

Braun hit 44% his freshman year and then 34% last season on double the volume. They predict Remy and Yes will command attention off the dribble which should open Braun up for cleaner looks. We were outside the top 100 in 3p% last season.

On 2 point shots, KU was 14th nationally in 2020 and then 207th last season. Seems entirely a function of no more Dok, but it along with the 3 point shooting have to be better. I bet both improve significantly. Still think our path to the natty runs through really good shooting from 3, though.

[pdub]

"Still think our path to the natty runs through really good shooting from 3, though"

This.
The 2 point percentage would have improved with an OK to good 3 point percentage.

And at least an average defense against the 3 - sometimes Self's achilles heel - much exacerbated last season.
We were 171st in defending the 3.

[hasbeen]

Couldn't agree more. I also think that if we look back in a few months and it was Dave who won Big 12 Player of the Year then that means we were really good to elite from 3. He's really our only back to the basket player and will feast if our 3 point shooting threat opens up space for him inside.

[ousdahl]

Yea.

3 is pretty critical if small ball is gonna work.

With Dok and Dot and Garrett, I’m surprised we were only 14th in 2 pointers in 2020.

And the guttermeter in me wants to mention that it seemed like “cleaner looks” wasn’t the issue why we were bricking so many 3s last year, even open ones.

But the optimist fanboy as well as the armchair coach in me thinks that, yes, with more guards moving the ball, and with another year of experience too, we stand to improve from deep this year

[pdub]

We had a lot of open threes missed.
Often the defenses would give us them.
Garrett was a liability on that side of the court.

DMac was also often doubled as he was, later in the year, our most consistent scorer, but they also knew if they could double Dave, they could pressure him into some bad decisions.
He's a pretty decent passer out of the block -- just needs to realize when the double is coming and get it back out.

[CrimsonNBlue]

Had a lot of open 3's missed, but majority of missed 3's were contested.

No one could beat anyone off the dribble and also felt the sets we were running did not match the personnel. Give MG all the credit in the world, but during the season and now we could see he just wasn't the type of on-the-ball guard we needed.

I expect noticeable improvement on offense and the defense to not take a big slip at all, which, the defense late January forward was very good.

[ousdahl]

Dunno why you single out Garrett as the liability, at .348.

Jalen .333
Braun .340
Ochai .377

The whole team was a liability from deep.

And that was somehow despite knowing our big was likely to be doubled.

[hasbeen]

I think Braun and Ochai were far more likely to get contested looks. At times it seemed some teams were sagging and daring Marcus to shoot. But yeah, I agree, not a good shooting team at all.

Man, if Jalen gets that percentage up to the high 30s, that's an incredibly hard offense to defend.

[CrimsonNBlue]

I think Braun and Ochai were far more likely to get contested looks. At times it seemed some teams were sagging and daring Marcus to shoot.

Exactly what was happening.

Offense would have looked even worse if Garrett didn't improve his FT% 20% out of absolutely nowhere.

[pdub]

Well, teams sagged way off Garrett when he was outside the arc.
He shot 60 fewer 3's than Wilson, 90 fewer than Braun and 140 fewer than Ochai.

*hasbeen got to it

[jfish26]

Well, teams sagged way off Garrett when he was outside the arc.
He shot 60 fewer 3's than Wilson, 90 fewer than Braun and 140 fewer than Ochai.

*hasbeen got to it

And the ones Garrett did shoot were wide-ass open. Perfect example of 3pt% not being very useful absent context.

[pdub]

I think Braun and Ochai were far more likely to get contested looks. At times it seemed some teams were sagging and daring Marcus to shoot. But yeah, I agree, not a good shooting team at all.

Man, if Jalen get that percentage up to the high 30s, that's an incredibly hard offense to defend.

If Ochai, Wilson and Braun each increase by 3 percent from 3, we should be good.
41%, 37% and 36%.
Not deadly good - but enough.

[CrimsonNBlue]

So you're saying Dajuan shouldn't attempt 200 3's this year?

[ousdahl]

While I don’t disagree that maybe Garrett wasn’t the pg we needed last year, I also can’t help but wonder if it’s “blame the quarterback” syndrome.

Cuz at the same time, Garrett was the only guy from last year’s roster to earn an nba deal, despite other dudes trying to too.

[pdub]

Garrett shot 66 3's, just 2 more than Ellis did his senior year.
So yes, minutes played + 3 pointers shot + 3 point percentage is a factor.

[ousdahl]

So you're saying Dajuan shouldn't attempt 200 3's this year?

Heck, DMac shot 100% from deep last year.

Rich man’s Dirk!