Kansas Crimson

hasbeen wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:34 am

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:29 am I want to hear an argument of how Mitch is better at the 5 than Jalen.

I asked for this a few times up thread a month or so ago. There isn't a good argument, at least available on this board.

Mitch looks better on the block this year, but I want to see how that plays out the rest of the season. He's a good shotblocker but not a good post defender. And he's not noticeably better than Jalen at rebounding.

Rebounding 2020-2021 Season.png

Mitch isn't just "not noticeably better at rebounding" than Jalen... Mitch is noticeably worse at rebounding than Jalen.

Mjl wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:52 am

hasbeen wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:34 am

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:29 am I want to hear an argument of how Mitch is better at the 5 than Jalen.

I asked for this a few times up thread a month or so ago. There isn't a good argument, at least available on this board.

Mitch looks better on the block this year, but I want to see how that plays out the rest of the season. He's a good shotblocker but not a good post defender. And he's not noticeably better than Jalen at rebounding.

Rebounding 2020-2021 Season.png

Mitch isn't just "not noticeably better at rebounding" than Jalen... Mitch is noticeably worse at rebounding than Jalen.

Yeah, I was just trying to be charitable.

ousdahl wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:47 am Wait, not much history playing 4 out?

Have you not been watching the past 5 years?

It’s more like, he doesn’t have much recent history playing 2 bigs.

We’re more likely to go 5 out at this point. Look at this season so far.

I looked at some past games from 2018, 2019, and 2020 and seemed we stuck with 7 guys for the big games at end of the year.

But, we haven't had this kind of depth in awhile.

JCL pushes the end of season rotation to 8, IMO, and then maybe even another one if we're going to play at a faster pace/more possessions.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:48 am

hasbeen wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:44 am This is all a moot point anyway if Dave starts acting less spazzy on the block since he will eat up so many minutes. But in the scenario where he's blowing ass or in foul trouble, I think it'll look like this:

Opposing team has a small lineup > Jalen at 5
Opposing team has a 5 that is skilled/strong on block > Mitch and freshmen
Opposing team has a finesse 5 or otherwise non-factor inside 5 > Jalen

Dave was at 23 MPG last year. So far, it's looking something like 25 mpg this season?

Yeah, what I meant by "less spazzy" is that he's much better than last year and so far this year, which would likely push his minutes towards 30 given how badly Self wants to play inside-out.

ousdahl wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:47 am Wait, not much history playing 4 out?

Have you not been watching the past 5 years?

It’s more like, he doesn’t have much recent history playing 2 bigs.

We’re more likely to go 5 out at this point. Look at this season so far.

I would not consider 5 years much history considering how long Self has been here. It's a small sample size. So to conclude we'll only play 7 based on history, which was the subject, is not necessarily sound.

hasbeen wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:55 am

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:48 am

hasbeen wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:44 am This is all a moot point anyway if Dave starts acting less spazzy on the block since he will eat up so many minutes. But in the scenario where he's blowing ass or in foul trouble, I think it'll look like this:

Opposing team has a small lineup > Jalen at 5
Opposing team has a 5 that is skilled/strong on block > Mitch and freshmen
Opposing team has a finesse 5 or otherwise non-factor inside 5 > Jalen

Dave was at 23 MPG last year. So far, it's looking something like 25 mpg this season?

Yeah, what I meant by "less spazzy" is that he's much better than last year and so far this year, which would likely push his minutes towards 30 given how badly Self wants to play inside-out.

I think he's started this season out much like he did last season.

The difference now is that we know that's just kind of who he is. It's frustrating, but not worrisome.

Jalen gets the benefit of playing next to Dave who isn't a good rebounder for someone his size, but is a big body who blocks out and takes up space. Mitch doesn't. That impacts ability to rebound imo.

I don't know if there are advanced stats for college basketball, but i wouldn't be shocked to see if as the LONE BIG on the floor that Mitch has better rebounding numbers than Jalen. You can't just look at raw rebounds per game in this instance because their minutes are so different and 1 gets minutes next to another big and the other doesn't.

BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:57 am Jalen gets the benefit of playing next to Dave who isn't a good rebounder for someone his size, but is a big body who blocks out and takes up space. Mitch doesn't. That impacts ability to rebound imo.

I don't know if there are advanced stats for college basketball, but i wouldn't be shocked to see if as the LONE BIG on the floor that Mitch has better rebounding numbers than Jalen. You can't just look at raw rebounds per game in this instance because their minutes are so different and 1 gets minutes next to another big and the other doesn't.

Counterpoint: that should mean Mitch's advanced rebounding stats should be better than Jalen's, not worse.

i don’t think Jalen’s had enough of an opportunity in that role (the lone “big”) for those stats to be meaningful in any way

Jalen's Total Defensive Rebounding Percentage while playing mostly next to Dave McCormack is 22.7%

Mitch's Total Defensive Rebounding Percentage playing in a smaller lineup is 18.9%.

Jalen clearly better.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:59 am

BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:57 am Jalen gets the benefit of playing next to Dave who isn't a good rebounder for someone his size, but is a big body who blocks out and takes up space. Mitch doesn't. That impacts ability to rebound imo.

I don't know if there are advanced stats for college basketball, but i wouldn't be shocked to see if as the LONE BIG on the floor that Mitch has better rebounding numbers than Jalen. You can't just look at raw rebounds per game in this instance because their minutes are so different and 1 gets minutes next to another big and the other doesn't.

Counterpoint: that should mean Mitch's advanced rebounding stats should be better than Jalen's, not worse.

Hard to say. I think playing next to dave helps Jalen get more rebounds for the reasons i mentioned.

BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:04 am

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:59 am

BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:57 am Jalen gets the benefit of playing next to Dave who isn't a good rebounder for someone his size, but is a big body who blocks out and takes up space. Mitch doesn't. That impacts ability to rebound imo.

I don't know if there are advanced stats for college basketball, but i wouldn't be shocked to see if as the LONE BIG on the floor that Mitch has better rebounding numbers than Jalen. You can't just look at raw rebounds per game in this instance because their minutes are so different and 1 gets minutes next to another big and the other doesn't.

Counterpoint: that should mean Mitch's advanced rebounding stats should be better than Jalen's, not worse.

Hard to say. I think playing next to dave helps Jalen get more rebounds for the reasons i mentioned.

As opposed to Mitch playing next to Christian Braun at the 4?

The stats match the eye test on this one. Other than speed, staff also said this week how much Jalen will help the rebounding because, right now, 6'6" CB is our best rebounder through 3 games.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:07 am As opposed to Mitch playing next to Christian Braun at the 4?

The stats match the eye test on this one. Other than speed, staff also said this week how much Jalen will help the rebounding because, right now, 6'6" CB is our best rebounder through 3 games.

Mitch only plays next to CB? The point I am trying to make, is that even though Dave doesn't necessarily get a lot of rebounds per game, he does block out and is typically blocking out the other teams biggest player. That benefits Jalen. Mitch never gets that benefit because he plays as the lone big.

Jalen is a fantastic rebounder at the 4. I just do not think he is nearly as effective as a rebounder when he's the lone big. It's hard to prove without advanced stats.

One thing i love about the NBA is they have those kinds of things available (mostly due to daily fantasy now). You can actually plug scenarios in to see what a guys trends are at a certain position or with another guy on or off of the court.

BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:57 am Jalen gets the benefit of playing next to Dave who isn't a good rebounder for someone his size, but is a big body who blocks out and takes up space. Mitch doesn't. That impacts ability to rebound imo.

I don't know if there are advanced stats for college basketball, but i wouldn't be shocked to see if as the LONE BIG on the floor that Mitch has better rebounding numbers than Jalen. You can't just look at raw rebounds per game in this instance because their minutes are so different and 1 gets minutes next to another big and the other doesn't.

This doesn't make any sense. You think Jalen benefits from having to rebound next to Dave whereas Mitch is at a disadvantage by being the only traditional big on the floor? That does not follow.

The graph I posted isn't raw rebounds per game. It's a rate. And it shows that Jalen's rate is better than Mitch's on defensive rebounding and lower on the offensive side, all the while playing far more minutes which just weakens Mitch's case even more.

It's just mental gymnastics.

There's this automatic pushback to playing "5 out," which I kind of get. But in just the Jalen vs. Mitch comparison, you have to set that aside because they are the same size and Jalen is better than Mitch at the #1 thing you want your bigs to do: defensive rebound.

hasbeen wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:21 am

BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:57 am Jalen gets the benefit of playing next to Dave who isn't a good rebounder for someone his size, but is a big body who blocks out and takes up space. Mitch doesn't. That impacts ability to rebound imo.

I don't know if there are advanced stats for college basketball, but i wouldn't be shocked to see if as the LONE BIG on the floor that Mitch has better rebounding numbers than Jalen. You can't just look at raw rebounds per game in this instance because their minutes are so different and 1 gets minutes next to another big and the other doesn't.

This doesn't make any sense. You think Jalen benefits from having to rebound next to Dave whereas Mitch is at a disadvantage by being the only traditional big on the floor? That does not follow.

The graph I posted isn't raw rebounds per game. It's a rate. And it shows that Jalen's rate is better than Mitch's on defensive rebounding and lower on the offensive side, all the while playing far more minutes which just weakens Mitch's case even more.

The graph you posted says it's an estimate...

But yes, I think Jalen benefits by playing next to Dave. In those situations Jalen isn't rebounding against the other teams biggest player 100% of the time (frequently he's against smaller guys when at the 4), Dave is still boxing out and occupying space even though he only averages 6reb per game the last 2 years, so it in turn helps Jalen get more rebounds.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:24 am It's just mental gymnastics.

There's this automatic pushback to playing "5 out," which I kind of get. But in just the Jalen vs. Mitch comparison, you have to set that aside because they are the same size and Jalen is better than Mitch at the #1 thing you want your bigs to do: defensive rebound.

Are they really the same size or just listed at similar sizes? Mitch looks bigger, stronger, and seems to have more ups than Jalen. I know they're listed similarly, but college height/weight listings are notoriously inaccurate as evidenced by the NBA combine numbers year after year.

Either way, we are probbaly splitting hairs. We are talking about 5-10mpg max of Jalen at the 5 imo.

BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:29 amAre they really the same size or just listed at similar sizes? Mitch looks bigger, stronger, and seems to have more ups than Jalen. I know they're listed similarly, but college height/weight listings are notoriously inaccurate as evidenced by the NBA combine numbers year after year.

Same kind of gymnastics stuff. KU says they are 6'8" 225 lbs. Is your suggestion that KU is telling the truth about Mitch but lying about Jalen?

In regards to NBA combine, Jalen measured 6'7" 225 lbs at this last one. Mitch has never been to a combine.

In the context of the comparison - whether Mitch does anything better enough to warrant minutes over Jalen and what he does better, and we’re already at the “which listed height is more accurate” part of the debate

In the minutes Dave is out, we can go with Mitch because he's slightly bigger and possibly a little better than Jalen at rebounding and defense (and this is being incredibly charitable) while sacrificing the advantages on offense with Jalen as the big. Or we can take that maybe Jalen will get worked slightly more (again, incredibly generous given Mitch's career) on defense while on offense he gets to drive on 6'10" dudes who never have to guard players like him. I mean, it seems obvious to me. If someone was suggesting we do this for 30 minutes, I'd say no, but we're talking 10 minutes a game.