Kansas Crimson

here's the problem.

Unless the virus is seasonal and goes away on its own, we're at the mercy of developing a vaccine, or reliable, fast, efficient treatment. Otherwise, I don't really see a scenario where you don't get a second spike in numbers.

My prediction is, if we flatten the curve effectively, we can slowly start rolling things back. A lot of businesses can open back up. Schools will probably start opening back up, although there might be limitations, half the students come from 6 to noon, the other half come 12:30-6:30. Or at colleges, dorms become single occupancy and classes are limited to say 25 or half the number set by the fire marshal, etc. I think the roll back process might be slow.

What I'm having trouble with, is seeing a scenario where there are any carriers and we still have festivals, concerts, large scale sporting events, movie theaters, etc. Until there is an effective vaccine.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:19 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:14 am If either (1) there is not much seasonality, or (2) there is not much immunity to subsequent infection, then we need to start thinking about immediate, medium-to-long-term structural changes.

Which, those are both not much more than guesses either way right now.

But, unless I've missed it, I haven't seen a rash of bad news on those two fronts.

There's lab data supporting reasonably strong seasonality. There's not yet good population data on immunity. It will come out of Korea first.

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:23 am here's the problem.

Unless the virus is seasonal and goes away on its own, we're at the mercy of developing a vaccine, or reliable, fast, efficient treatment. Otherwise, I don't really see a scenario where you don't get a second spike in numbers.

My prediction is, if we flatten the curve effectively, we can slowly start rolling things back. A lot of businesses can open back up. Schools will probably start opening back up, although there might be limitations, half the students come from 6 to noon, the other half come 12:30-6:30. Or at colleges, dorms become single occupancy and classes are limited to say 25 or half the number set by the fire marshal, etc. I think the roll back process might be slow.

What I'm having trouble with, is seeing a scenario where there are any carriers and we still have festivals, concerts, large scale sporting events, movie theaters, etc. Until there is an effective vaccine.

I agree.

And we're sort of in a lull period now where testing doesn't really matter; it would have made a Korea-outcome-type difference a month ago. And it will matter a great deal when it comes to opening things back up.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:14 am If either (1) there is not much seasonality, or (2) there is not much immunity to subsequent infection, then we need to start thinking about immediate, medium-to-long-term structural changes.

(2) is really scary, that has really bad implications for producing a protective vaccine.

It's also really bad given that there still are indication that there is a dose-dependent variable to the virulence of the pathogen. That could have pretty dire consequences for health care workers.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:24 am

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:19 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:14 am If either (1) there is not much seasonality, or (2) there is not much immunity to subsequent infection, then we need to start thinking about immediate, medium-to-long-term structural changes.

Which, those are both not much more than guesses either way right now.

But, unless I've missed it, I haven't seen a rash of bad news on those two fronts.

There's lab data supporting reasonably strong seasonality. There's not yet good population data on immunity. It will come out of Korea first.

My unscientific hope on seasonality is always to look at Singapore's numbers and the rest of SE Asia.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:25 am

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:23 am here's the problem.

Unless the virus is seasonal and goes away on its own, we're at the mercy of developing a vaccine, or reliable, fast, efficient treatment. Otherwise, I don't really see a scenario where you don't get a second spike in numbers.

My prediction is, if we flatten the curve effectively, we can slowly start rolling things back. A lot of businesses can open back up. Schools will probably start opening back up, although there might be limitations, half the students come from 6 to noon, the other half come 12:30-6:30. Or at colleges, dorms become single occupancy and classes are limited to say 25 or half the number set by the fire marshal, etc. I think the roll back process might be slow.

What I'm having trouble with, is seeing a scenario where there are any carriers and we still have festivals, concerts, large scale sporting events, movie theaters, etc. Until there is an effective vaccine.

I agree.

And we're sort of in a lull period now where testing doesn't really matter; it would have made a Korea-outcome-type difference a month ago. And it will matter a great deal when it comes to opening things back up.

I'm curious about Korea, I tried briefly to look into it, but how much have they lifted their restrictions?

I'm wondering about their ability to prevent a second peak. I saw there gov't was still sending out shelter in place packages, so I'm assuming they still have things fairly restricted.

Off topic, but I also read that part of their success had to do with the fact that a large percentage of their infected were from a specific religious sect, which made it easier for them to identify and isolate a large percentage of their infected.

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:27 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:14 am If either (1) there is not much seasonality, or (2) there is not much immunity to subsequent infection, then we need to start thinking about immediate, medium-to-long-term structural changes.

(2) is really scary, that has really bad implications for producing a protective vaccine.

It's also really bad given that there still are indication that there is a dose-dependent variable to the virulence of the pathogen. That could have pretty dire consequences for health care workers.

(2) is very scary, yes, but also generally not how things work.

11000 cases so far in the US. Just today. Were going to require drastic changes and lockdowns to bring the numbers down. (I do realize there is a 14ish day lag between action and numbers correlating, but Ive seen 0 in my area to give me hope that were slowing it down. I have seen very little day to day impact on people here pthwr than bars and resturants being shut down).

Only posting this because he was a Jayhawk that some of you may have known. He is someone I knew and admired.

Richard Darrell Kincaid unexpectedly took his life on Friday March 20, 2020. Many will seek to impose a narrative on this tragedy, but his loved ones have been left searching for an answer. The shock of the global pandemic and market collapse appeared to be just one of many things weighing on him. In the days following the tragedy, family and friends said Richard was the last person they expected to end his own life. The world has lost an extraordinary businessman, a loving and devoted husband, father, son, brother and friend. Richard was survived by his loving wife Jackie, his amazing children, Jake Kincaid, Jenna Kincaid (Max) Omick, and Luke Kincaid. Brothers and sisters include, Carolyn (Gordon) Berry, Nancy Riley, Peggy (Tony) Waldschmidt, Frank (Becky) Kincaid, Chris (Meghan) Kincaid, and numerous nieces and nephews who love him dearly. He was preceded in death by his parents, Darrell and Jo Ann Kincaid. Richard grew up in Ellinwood, Kansas where he graduated from Ellinwood High School. He went on to attend University of Kansas and graduated from Wichita State University with a degree in business finance. He was then accepted into University of Austin Texas where he received a Masters of Business Administration, Finance. Richard married his wife Jackie of nearly 34 years, June 1986. They moved to Chicago where he launched a successful career at First National Bank of Chicago, proceeded by a position at Barkley Bank. He accepted a role with Equity Office, quickly earned his place as Chief Financial Officer, and later became CEO. He administered the sale of the company in 2006. After the watershed real estate deal, he had a desire to pursue a different path. He started and led numerous philanthropic organizations with the goal of helping others to have a better life. For the remainder of his career, he poured his passion into the vision of filling cities around the world with vertical gardens as the CEO of Sage Green Life. Richard was talented and intelligent. Some would say annoyingly so. His kids teased him relentlessly when he sang the wrong lyric to "All of Me" at his nephew's wedding because it was the only thing they ever saw him mess up. He could keep up skiing double-black diamonds with his children, bring an entire room to tears with his singing voice, read a book in a short flight and recall the details photographically. He was an avid tennis player. Richard loved loud music, wine and hosting parties. His youngest son Luke once quipped that his father's house parties got more noise complaints than his high school ragers.

He will be missed by many. He was a rock for his family and countless others who relied on him for advice and stability. There is a tremendous void in the lives of all those Richard touched. The world will never be the same without him. A celebration to honor the life of Richard Kincaid will be announced when the world is a safer place. In lieu of flowers, please consider a donation to one of the following organizations: Teach for America (www.teachforamerica.org), Providence Farm Community (www.pfcommunity.org), Earthjustice (www.earthjustice.org) or Humble Design(www.humbledesign.org).
Published in a Chicago Tribune Media Group Publication from Mar. 31 to Apr. 2, 2020

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:24 am

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:19 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:14 am If either (1) there is not much seasonality, or (2) there is not much immunity to subsequent infection, then we need to start thinking about immediate, medium-to-long-term structural changes.

Which, those are both not much more than guesses either way right now.

But, unless I've missed it, I haven't seen a rash of bad news on those two fronts.

There's lab data supporting reasonably strong seasonality. There's not yet good population data on immunity. It will come out of Korea first.

I haven't seen that, about the seasonality. That's good news. All I'd seen was anecdotal evidence about the climates of virus hot spots, which I didn't think was necessarily meaningful.

The good news about immunity, is that most other similar coronaviruses do offer immunity to those who've had it....until the virus mutates, but typically for longer than a year.

My working hypothesis is that it does provide immunity. I thing if it didn't at all, there'd be plenty of evidence to show that by now. (Although, the Chinese being perpetually dishonest in all this doesn't help that)

I think those that have been reinfected have had a false result on one of their (at least) three tests, which is very likely given the accuracy of the tests, or immunity is high but not 100% or may depend on a certain viral titer, etc.

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:31 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:25 am

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:23 am here's the problem.

Unless the virus is seasonal and goes away on its own, we're at the mercy of developing a vaccine, or reliable, fast, efficient treatment. Otherwise, I don't really see a scenario where you don't get a second spike in numbers.

My prediction is, if we flatten the curve effectively, we can slowly start rolling things back. A lot of businesses can open back up. Schools will probably start opening back up, although there might be limitations, half the students come from 6 to noon, the other half come 12:30-6:30. Or at colleges, dorms become single occupancy and classes are limited to say 25 or half the number set by the fire marshal, etc. I think the roll back process might be slow.

What I'm having trouble with, is seeing a scenario where there are any carriers and we still have festivals, concerts, large scale sporting events, movie theaters, etc. Until there is an effective vaccine.

I agree.

And we're sort of in a lull period now where testing doesn't really matter; it would have made a Korea-outcome-type difference a month ago. And it will matter a great deal when it comes to opening things back up.

I'm curious about Korea, I tried briefly to look into it, but how much have they lifted their restrictions?

I'm wondering about their ability to prevent a second peak. I saw there gov't was still sending out shelter in place packages, so I'm assuming they still have things fairly restricted.

Off topic, but I also read that part of their success had to do with the fact that a large percentage of their infected were from a specific religious sect, which made it easier for them to identify and isolate a large percentage of their infected.

I touched on this in reply to Trad, but there wasn't strict social distancing requirements in place, just suggestions within--especially within the Seoul metro. That said, suggestions were being mostly heeded. But now, Korea is having a hell of a time keeping people from grouping and bars, restaurants, clubs have been packed for at least the last 2 weekends. They're back to like 95% normal socially, work from home is a lot still in place, and their second semester of school is going to finally start online again next week. Their government is now again recommending social distancing and have made it nearly impossible for foreigners to come in.

So, as jfish suggests, their numbers could tell us a lot about second wave and immunity. The encouraging thing is that Korea flipped the number and now have more recovered cases than active cases--and the gap is widening. I'm not aware of another country that far into the curve, unless you believe China, lol.

The (large) cult group is centered in one area of the country, outside of Seoul metro, and actually has branches in China, which is likely how it was the first cluster group in Korea. That area was shut off from the rest of the country--not something you can really do here, and given Korea's pioneering in testing, they were able to get the cult tested and isolated. This wasn't just a positive, though, but the early testing is the biggest factor in what flattened Korea's curve, no question.

Grandma wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:00 am

chiknbut wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:15 am

Grandma wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:04 am As I have been known to say too often, how about people take 30 seconds to do a little research/due diligence before they assume something that's probably too good to be true - is true?

How about some shitbag doesn't use a pandemic as the basis of an April Fool's joke?

That would be nice but there will always be shitbags in the world who exist.
For that reason and many others, I am a skeptical person.
Not saying you're a shitbag (because you're not) but yesterday I was skeptical about your post regarding Kroger. I then spent 30 seconds to find the truth.
Last night I was skeptical about something that someone posted in regards to people getting their "food stamp" funds on the first of the month. I spent 30 seconds to find the truth.
This morning I was skeptical about something that someone posted about Hillary. I spent 30 seconds to find the truth.
Point of my saying this is, we live in such a fucking gullible society. Pretty much anyone has the ability to post something on social media and often they post things that are simply not true - without fear of repercussion/s.
It's frightening to me.

Couldn't be bothered to look a CNBC article, though.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:07 am
I think higher education and Class A office space are going to have this particularly rough.

For a LONG time.

At the current rate, the time to double positive cases in

S. Korea is 65 days,
US is 5 days
Italy 15 days
Japan 14 days


S. Korea Date of peak infection was March 3rd
Italy March 21st
the US date of peak infection still isn't known, because we're not there yet.

DCHawk1 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:50 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:07 am
I think higher education and Class A office space are going to have this particularly rough.

For a LONG time.

I'd guess permanently, to a significant degree.

Damn near overnight, my law firm has gone work-from-home, up and down the food chain. Given that lease expense is one of the biggest fixed costs professional services firms have (people obviously being the biggest), I fully expect firms to figure out a way to reduce square footage moving forward.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:04 pm

DCHawk1 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:50 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:07 am
I think higher education and Class A office space are going to have this particularly rough.

For a LONG time.

I'd guess permanently, to a significant degree.

Damn near overnight, my law firm has gone work-from-home, up and down the food chain. Given that lease expense is one of the biggest fixed costs professional services firms have (people obviously being the biggest), I fully expect firms to figure out a way to reduce square footage moving forward.

Universities have, for quite a while, been adapting to a world that's moving online.

This is certainly going to speed up that process.

There are a lot of negatives to that, far beyond the negatives for the institutions themselves. (There are also positives)

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that more work-from-home culture stands to make a massive dent in carbon consumption?

At the end of the day, many meetings can actually be emails, and business trips be skype appointments. There’s so many more efficient ways to communicate any more.

But re: school, I think there’s something to he said for a Socratic seminar, and that might be a little trickier to administer without being physically there.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:04 pm

DCHawk1 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:50 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:07 am
I think higher education and Class A office space are going to have this particularly rough.

For a LONG time.

I'd guess permanently, to a significant degree.

Damn near overnight, my law firm has gone work-from-home, up and down the food chain. Given that lease expense is one of the biggest fixed costs professional services firms have (people obviously being the biggest), I fully expect firms to figure out a way to reduce square footage moving forward.

My company is also talking about making permanent options for WFH. In Manhattan, we have I think four different buildings that we rent space in. I work at the corporate headquarters, and I know we have at least seven floors in my building, maybe more. I could absolutely see us closing up some of the floors and having a more open floor plan for other departments.

I think there are positives, at least selfishly.

Millenial generation doing WFH successfully could change my day-to-day, and I'm loving that restaurants are finally jumping on board being able to order takeout online.

Only cost millions of lives.