Kansas Crimson

pdub wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:19 pm I would not take a shot at the end zone down 1 point with 1:20 left and Baltimore with a timeout left. They were gashing us. Take the ball out of Lamar's hands completely.

Some sort of short play to Kelce or away from Hill ( since he was covered ) would have been reasonable but then, if dropped/incomplete, you're stopping the clock for Baltimore.

what was the down? if 2nd i probably would...not the case if 3rd

It's only fascinating to me because it falls right in line with the new coaching style, "do-the-math" type decision making that has entered the NFL. Plus, my team was weirdly in a pretty similar situation yesterday and also chose the conventional route and ran the clock down to kick a GW FG, and predictably missed it.

Chiefs fans are in a unique position, though, because Mahomes changes the math. IMO, Mahomes drastically changes the risk-reward because that risk of stopping the clock goes way down when you have Mahomes, and then add a TE like Kelce. And the odds of the reward are also so much better when you have those guys.

For the Chiefs fans that defend the play call, if the same situation happens next week, deep down are you wanting Mahomes to turn around and hand the ball off again? I would just trust Mahomes and the unconventional more than I would the historically "right" play call.

and in that same vein, who do you generally trust more

1) Mahomie (+ Kelse)

or

2) CEH

i think people are fooling themselves if they vote #2

I'm trusting Mahomes more if I need a first down.
You don't need the first down right there.
It was 2nd and 3.
You wanted Baltimore to burn a timeout.
You were in Butker's range where he has hit 90 percent of his FG's in the last 2 years.

TraditionKU wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:34 pm and in that same vein, who do you generally trust more

1) Mahomie (+ Kelse)

or

2) CEH

i think people are fooling themselves if they vote #2

Well apparently CEH is not a guy that fumbles, so you shouldn't be worried about that. However, there's no reason to not want the first down and extra yardage and I don't think CEH is a goal line back, so that's kind of strange.

Plus, a huge factor on the math, I only saw the replay of this play and it seemed like Baltimore was teed up to stop any run. The conventional is always expected, so you have a defense that is keyed in on stopping the run against a guy that is not known for short yard power runs. The fumble may not have been predictable, but 3rd down probably was.

fake the dive and go to Kelce, either on a short out route or something like a flag route

but again, hindsight

Its game two in a 17 game season.
You have invested in a new offensive line.
You have a running back you have vocally made a point that you want to further establish this season.
He's never fumbled in his career.
He was averaging 4 yards a carry to that point.

You don't need the first down right there.
It was 2nd and 3.
You wanted Baltimore to burn a timeout.
You were in Butker's range where he has hit 90 percent of his FG's in the last 2 years.

pdub wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:10 pm Also, it may not have mattered, but it should have been 2nd and 18 with 8 minutes left with the Ravens down 35-30 on the Ravens 45 instead of 1st and 10 from the KC 39 due to a bewildering penalty v Mathieu.

Pretty sure that was when the Chiefs got a sack on 3rd and like 6. Would have been 4th and 12 or something. That was absolutely horrible. And Al Michaels definitely had the Chiefs because he was pissed.

Was it 3rd and 6?
It was an awful call whenever it was.

pdub wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:52 pm Its game two in a 17 game season.
You have invested in a new offensive line.
You have a running back you have vocally made a point that you want to further establish this season.
He's never fumbled in his career.
He was averaging 4 yards a carry to that point.

You don't need the first down right there.
It was 2nd and 3.
You wanted Baltimore to burn a timeout.
You were in Butker's range where he has hit 90 percent of his FG's in the last 2 years.

it’s fine, we can agree to disagree

I don't think there needs to be much, if any, disagreement. The conventional way is to force the other side to use TO's. The new style says don't worry about that.

20 years ago, the new method would have no merit, but it does now with the way teams can move the ball.

The fact is, you're a genius when you do whatever happens to work. But, again, I do think Mahomes changes the calculations.

If it's 3rd and 3 and they run it, then i'd agree, it's gotta be up to Mahomes.
If it's 2nd and 3 and you're not in field goal range yet, then i'd agree, it's gotta be up to Mahomes.

It was 2nd and 3, you're in Butker's range where he's hit 90% of his field goals, and you want to control the rest of the game.
An incompletion doesn't give you that chance.

pdub wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:10 pm If it's 3rd and 3 and they run it, then i'd agree, it's gotta be up to Mahomes.
It was 2nd and 3 and you want to control the rest of the game.
An incompletion doesn't give you that chance.

but by that same token, you want to make the other team beat you

an incompletion is better than a fumble in this situation

an incompletion still leaves you in fg range

(Checking box score) If doing math, Mahomes has to be something like 85% chance to complete a pass on 2nd and short yardage.

I think positive yardage on a run between the tackles is somewhere lower than that.

But your running back had never fumbled in his NFL career.
In fact, he had only fumbled once in college.

Of course an incompletion is better than a fumble.
( an incompletion is better, in that same vein, as an interception, something that Mahomes had just done in the second half )
That's why the blame is on the player and not the play call.

The idea was/is simple. Run it. Get the 1st down (or don't). And kick a FG with little to no time left on the clock. Reid didn't do something crazy. He did exactly what most coaches would have done. We've got one of the best kickers in the game. On the road. It was a freak play with a CEH fumble. We run that scenario 100 times and i bet 95 result in a us kicking a FG while time expires and winning the game.

.

BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:25 pmWe run that scenario 100 times and i bet 95 result in a us kicking a FG while time expires and winning the game.

Probably more like 75-80.

I'd put it closer to illy's 95 than your 75.
You got Mahomes and you got Butker.
This isn't Kirk Cousins and Greg Joseph here.

Put me firmly at 89.

Kickers are probably right at 90% on FG's in the 40's? High pressure situation, a little less, so 88%.

Then you have the small chance that there is a fumble on either 2nd or 3rd down. Down to 85ish%

Then the small chance that the running back runs it into the end zone. 82%. Then any other scenario: 80% or less.

How many TO's left? More than one, so the if the Chiefs don't get a first down, you can't kick a FG when time expires. So, we're really getting into the low 70's, maybe even 60% that a time expiring FG is kicked.