Kansas Crimson

A 3% chance of fumble per rush?

What's CEH rate so far in his career? Without looking, I'd say far less than fumbles on 3% of carries.

BasketballJayhawk wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 4:49 pm A 3% chance of fumble per rush?

What's CEH rate so far in his career? Without looking, I'd say far less than fumbles on 3% of carries.

It's assuming two rushes (2nd and 3rd down). But not assuming that CEH gets both rushes.

But, it brings up a good point that the 3rd down play could be a pass, where there is still a (very small) chance of a fumble/turnover--it should be included in the "all other scenarios."

Maybe i didn't catch it, but I've watched a few sports shows today like NFL Live etc and none of them were talking about blaming play calling of Reid because of the fumble. The first i have heard of that theory is on here.

2 super bowl appearances in a row. Don't reinvent the wheel. Reid is a good coach. The play call wasn't bad. Freak fumble. CEH will bounce back. He's not Barry Sanders, but he's sufficient enough for us to win multiple superbowls as long as Mahomes Kelce and Hill are on the team.

This team is fun to watch. We won't lose more than 3 or 4 games all year. Baltimore got lucky, and they've got a stud QB. No worries there. We will secure AFC home field advantage and likely showdown with the Bucs in the super bowl again. It's September. There is absolutely ZERO reasons to be peaking right now. Good learning lesson for CEH. This is going to be a historically good Chiefs run with Mahomes. Enjoy the ride.

I'm including the RB ( or the QB on 3rd down etc ) scoring a TD and winning the game.

"Kickers are probably right at 90% on FG's in the 40's? High pressure situation, a little less, so 88%."

90%. Butker is money in the clutch/high pressure situations. Just last year he hit three 58 yard field goals to win in OT.

"Then you have the small chance that there is a fumble on either 2nd or 3rd down. Down to 85ish%"

This is not a small percent chance - you're lowering the chances by 3%.
Again, you also aren't factoring the player here - he's never fumbled.
Hence why i'd put it at 89%.

If it was another team, and not Mahomes, Butker and a guy who has never fumbled before, sure, i'd put it closer to 70-75.

CEH may have only fumbled once, but he obviously hasn't been put in gut it out situations much--he has been a situation guy, not a possession/attrition RB. I hold my breath every time he is in traffic. He is a small dude missing cuts. Surely I am not alone there. You have a guy like Williams. You don't throw the undersized back in there. Although Pooka would have secured the ball. Not against running there. Just not into a stacked box with Tiny Archibald.

CEH isn't a goal line dude but he makes people miss.
I still think we shoulda drafted Swift.

Just saw that Dan Sorenson has 9 missed tackles already this year and no other NFL player has more than 6. No other Chief has more than 2.

Woof. Why does Sorenson play so much more than Thornhill again?

twocoach wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:51 pm Just saw that Dan Sorenson has 9 missed tackles already this year and no other NFL player has more than 6. No other Chief has more than 2.

Woof. Why does Sorenson play so much more than Thornhill again?

I don't get it either.
Thornhill was good as a rookie, had a pretty down year after the injury but looked good v Cleveland. Sorenson left his man completely wide open for that Lamar Jackson 40-50 yard TD throw. And yes, whiffed on several tackles/other plays.

We were talking about it during the game. Clearly Dan is overmatched now. I see him as useful in some situations. But cut the fullback and bring in Cobb.

What is going on with Thornhill is beyond puzzling to me. They are so much better when Juan can play the deep safety position. That lets Tyrann roam free and Dirty Dan play in spots not 100% of the snaps.

Dirty Dan, isn't my biggest issue. The biggest issue I have is how little Hitchens, Clark and Jones gave the Chiefs last night. Those three alone have to account for half of the Chiefs payroll.

Bieniemy rumors around USC opening

Would be a bad look for NFL if he goes to college after all this time.

If he holds on, I bet he can come in and replace another Reid alum, Nagy, up in Chi-town.

Was curious what Mellinger thought about the grand Helaire debate. He can have my last post on it:

The Chiefs were playing for the field goal there, which is a defensible strategy, and if that’s the strategy then handing the ball off when you’re in field goal range with 86 seconds left and your opponent down to one timeout is sensible.

The Chiefs had thrown the ball three times in a row, so it’s not like they were ignoring the pass. You’ve heard by now a million times that Edwards-Helaire had never fumbled as a professional before, but it’s also true that he’d only fumbled twice in 479 touches in college. There was no reason to worry about him fumbling there.

So, my criticism isn’t about giving the ball to Edwards-Helaire.

My criticism is about playing for the field goal there.

Harrison Butker is a stud. He trails Justin Tucker by 0.3 percentage points as the most accurate kicker in league history, and the Chargers coming up is a reminder that he essentially won that game in L.A. last year.

But you can still go for the touchdown knowing your backup plan is a game-winning field goal attempt.
That’s the part I don’t get. Mahomes threw the rotten interception, but he’s shown in his career that he makes the right decisions and stays on the right side of the risk-reward calculus.
That’s the part I don’t fully understand.

You can give it to Edwards-Helaire there. But not as a plan to kick a field goal.

He could have just stopped here:

"Harrison Butker is a stud. He trails Justin Tucker by 0.3 percentage points as the most accurate kicker in league history, and the Chargers coming up is a reminder that he essentially won that game in L.A. last year."

lol

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:28 am Was curious what Mellinger thought about the grand Helaire debate. He can have my last post on it:

The Chiefs were playing for the field goal there, which is a defensible strategy, and if that’s the strategy then handing the ball off when you’re in field goal range with 86 seconds left and your opponent down to one timeout is sensible.

The Chiefs had thrown the ball three times in a row, so it’s not like they were ignoring the pass. You’ve heard by now a million times that Edwards-Helaire had never fumbled as a professional before, but it’s also true that he’d only fumbled twice in 479 touches in college. There was no reason to worry about him fumbling there.

So, my criticism isn’t about giving the ball to Edwards-Helaire.

My criticism is about playing for the field goal there.

Harrison Butker is a stud. He trails Justin Tucker by 0.3 percentage points as the most accurate kicker in league history, and the Chargers coming up is a reminder that he essentially won that game in L.A. last year.

But you can still go for the touchdown knowing your backup plan is a game-winning field goal attempt.
That’s the part I don’t get. Mahomes threw the rotten interception, but he’s shown in his career that he makes the right decisions and stays on the right side of the risk-reward calculus.
That’s the part I don’t fully understand.

You can give it to Edwards-Helaire there. But not as a plan to kick a field goal.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

pdub wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:15 pm Butker is 18-20 from 40-49 yards in the last 2 years.
You have around a 90% chance of winning.
It was the right call.

So, among the reasons it's stupid to just keep citing this stat as support for playing for three...it is pretty clear that CEH was going to take a loss on the play on which he fumbled. Which would have moved the field goal attempt to at least 50 yards. Butker is 68.4% for his career from 50+.

"But it's right at 50 yards!," you might say. Well, that's why the 40-49 rate probably isn't all that instructive either.

Stupid to not try to move the ball down the field when you have Mahomes at the helm.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:27 am

pdub wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:15 pm Butker is 18-20 from 40-49 yards in the last 2 years.
You have around a 90% chance of winning.
It was the right call.

So, among the reasons it's stupid to just keep citing this stat as support for playing for three...it is pretty clear that CEH was going to take a loss on the play on which he fumbled. Which would have moved the field goal attempt to at least 50 yards. Butker is 68.4% for his career from 50+.

"But it's right at 50 yards!," you might say. Well, that's why the 40-49 rate probably isn't all that instructive either.

Stupid to not try to move the ball down the field when you have Mahomes at the helm.

I was 2nd down. If he gets tackled for a loss, maybe they have Mahomes throw an out for 15 yards and keep it moving.

It's a bummer the Baltimore defender made an elite play but other NFL teams have some really talented players as well. It happens.