Feral wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:22 pmOne thing that should be mentioned is, although it's early, if the reports are accurate, though they're citing an ~ 2% mortality rate, it's likely that the true % of the population that have died from the disease is much smaller, due to the # of people who have only mild coronavirus infections but never bother to get tested, and so aren't added to the "total" number of people infected.
Less than half a percent if you're not an oldie.
Might be significantly less than that, even. For the most part, it sounds like cold or sinus infection symptoms are the norm. Most won't ever even report those.
Yep, which has played a factor in Asia. Governments having to tell citizens that they should take their mild symptoms seriously and wear their masks even though they would usually go about their days with similar symptoms. Cultural differences have been no small part of the rise in cases.
Feral wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:22 pmOne thing that should be mentioned is, although it's early, if the reports are accurate, though they're citing an ~ 2% mortality rate, it's likely that the true % of the population that have died from the disease is much smaller, due to the # of people who have only mild coronavirus infections but never bother to get tested, and so aren't added to the "total" number of people infected.
Less than half a percent if you're not an oldie.
^^^
I typed but then deleted: "...and the mortality rate is probably even less than 0.5%...",
but as a physician I feel a responsibility to not be too reassuring, until more is known with some degree of confidence.
jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:55 am
3a. Economic security (even just the illusion of it!) is really the one thing holding together his base.
3b. A downturn in economic security among a significant portion of his base is a massive political vulnerability.
3c. A significant portion of his base is acutely vulnerable to the human (they're often old/in poor health) and financial (they're working poor, who can't ride out an extended time without work) tolls of something like what might be coming.
4. By being not just unwilling to be but incapable of being prepared for this, Trump has exposed a political flank in a way that he really cannot remedy except by telling people not to believe their eyes and ears (and lungs and wallets).
this is tangential now, but I heard a thing on the radio that basically said "it's the economy stupid' just don't apply like it used to.
Trump is paradoxically most popular in the most economically disadvantaged sectors, like manufacturing and many blue collar communities. He's least popular in the sectors that are doing the best, like financial and many other professional communities. The article basically asserted Trump is more so a warrior of culture, and gets folks more worked up about building walls and travel bans and stacking courts to overturn certain rulings, more so than he is any champion of the economy.
but yea, it'll be interesting to see how he spins this, and how his base receives it. It seems damning, but how many of his supporters has he already successfully told for virtually his entire political career to not believe their eyes or ears or wallets? I still hesitate to believe that this might finally be Trump's moment of reckoning. [1]
and what's the whole angle about getting Pence off the ticket? Is there more to that? [2]
1. I guess that's sort of my point - odds are that everything is fine and that this is a blip is a giant lie that is going to be disproven on the ground, and felt disproportionately on the ground by those disadvantaged sectors. For all the bluster and race-baiting and finger-pointing...if hotels and restaurants close because of a local concern, or if factories and plants cut shifts because of supply chain issues in Asia, or if farmers can't sell their crops because the giant processing facilities are slowed or shuttered, those people are going to be pissed (and in some trouble). It's not especially smart of Trump to set himself up to be called a liar over it.
This portion of Trump's base couldn't give two shits about the stock market. The DJIA is not representative of their economy. Their wages and hours and shifts are their economy. Lose even a modest portion of that part of the base, and Trump is drawing dead, electorally.
2. Where I'm going is that our response to all of this is likely to be a disaster on ice skates, and now Pence is set up as the fall guy.
Good response, thanks.
I bolded what struck me as the key details. While, yeah, this could be the kinda thing that bites a potus in the ass, why would it for Trump?
Why won’t this again be shrugged off, just like so many other controversies that would have ended so many other political careers?
I suppose a pandemic is a little more difficult to scapegoat, but still.
Who knows, maybe Trump will have to finally own something! Or maybe we’re about to hear about how cutting manufacturing job hours is the deep state’s fault, and how grandma hacking up a lung is actually another conspiracy to unseat a duly elected potus.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:56 pm
by jfish26
Of course you'll hear that.
What I'm wondering is whether actual pain will be enough for logic and reason to finally break through to a meaningful amount of people who have no rational basis for supporting Trump.
People who need a better social safety net, not a wall 2000 miles away. People who need more protections vis a vis their corporate conglomerate employers, not a few more taxpayer-funded self-enriching golf junkets.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:01 pm
by DCHawk1
Nope.
This is going to be just like everything else.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:15 pm
by jfish26
Maybe. But you can bet that, once we're in the general, you'll see a lot of attack ads playing the "everything is perfect" clips Trump's offering this week.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:27 pm
by Deleted User 141
What I’ve taken from the last 6-8 posts in this thread is that Geezer is fucked it seems.
Good luck Geezer. Wear your mask.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:28 pm
by TDub
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:15 pm
Maybe. But you can bet that, once we're in the general, you'll see a lot of attack ads playing the "everything is perfect" clips Trump's offering this week.
All depends on where this goes. Signs point to you being correct. I hope, however, that everything is fine.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:29 pm
by DCHawk1
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:15 pm
Maybe. But you can bet that, once we're in the general, you'll see a lot of attack ads playing the "everything is perfect" clips Trump's offering this week.
Yes, because he deserves to be hit with those and he deserves to be hit hard with them.
But that's not going to persuade the 30% of voters that will vote for him no matter what he does. And if he cured the damn thing tomorrow with his own saliva, that wouldn't persuade the 30% of voters who are going to vote against him no matter what he does.
Aha, you say, but 40% of voters are still persuadable and can therefore be influenced by evidence of his political malpractice. To which I would respond: don't bet on it.
Once this becomes a partisan issue -- which it is clearly on the verge of becoming -- The 40% are going to tune it all out because that's what they do with all partisan issues. Once this becomes Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer against Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell, once Elizabeth Warren quits picking on Mike Bloomberg and starts attacking Trump for his coronavirus incompetence, once we all pick exactly the same sides on this matter that we pick on every other matter, then it will no longer be a public health issue, but a partisan political issue, and the persuadables will mumble to themselves, "Fuck these people."
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:38 pm
by TDub
Truth. This should never be a partisan issue....but, like everything else, it will be.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:48 pm
by Shirley
And to think, we were/are worried about the reliability of the info coming out of China...
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:15 pm
Maybe. But you can bet that, once we're in the general, you'll see a lot of attack ads playing the "everything is perfect" clips Trump's offering this week.
Yes, because he deserves to be hit with those and he deserves to be hit hard with them.
But that's not going to persuade the 30% of voters that will vote for him no matter what he does. And if he cured the damn thing tomorrow with his own saliva, that wouldn't persuade the 30% of voters who are going to vote against him no matter what he does.
Aha, you say, but 40% of voters are still persuadable and can therefore be influenced by evidence of his political malpractice. To which I would respond: don't bet on it.
Once this becomes a partisan issue -- which it is clearly on the verge of becoming -- The 40% are going to tune it all out because that's what they do with all partisan issues. Once this becomes Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer against Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell, once Elizabeth Warren quits picking on Mike Bloomberg and starts attacking Trump for his coronavirus incompetence, once we all pick exactly the same sides on this matter that we pick on every other matter, then it will no longer be a public health issue, but a partisan political issue, and the persuadables will mumble to themselves, "Fuck these people."
Generally, of course you're right. I'm not suggesting this is the thing that will swing half his base the other way.
But it doesn't have to be half to result in him drawing dead, electorally. It doesn't have to be half of half of half.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:07 pm
by jfish26
Feral wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:48 pm
And to think, we were/are worried about the reliability of the info coming out of China...
It must be time to try to control the message:
Ah, but when your purpose in abusing your powers for political gain is a stated belief that your political gain is in the country's best interests, it's fine!
jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:15 pm
Maybe. But you can bet that, once we're in the general, you'll see a lot of attack ads playing the "everything is perfect" clips Trump's offering this week.
All depends on where this goes. Signs point to you being correct. I hope, however, that everything is fine.
And of course this is the, very seriously, tragic part.
It is overwhelmingly likely that things would have been fine, mostly. Now, it is just likely, or quite likely, that things will be fine, mostly.
But there are real costs in that delta! People will die because of that delta. The economy will suffer because of that delta. And that delta makes the possibility of an actually-bad outcome materially higher.
And the delta exists only because the President of the United States is again putting his short-term interests above the medium- and long-term national interest.
