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Re: B12 2024
Posted: Sun Feb 25, 2024 7:15 am
by pdub
Now we need a OU or UCF miracle to upset Houston.
In fact, UCF should just go ahead and upset all top 3 teams ( ISU and Houston remain ) in Florida.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:23 am
by pdub
Bartorvik is giving Houston a 66% chance to win their next 3 and a 30% chance we do ( largely because of the Baylor game ).
I think that gives us just less than a 10% chance of us going into the Houston game with a chance to tie them.
Add ISU's chances to win the next 4 at 33%.
Thats a sub 8% chance we have the opportunity, in our last game, to win and share the B12.
I'm bad at math though so someone can check my numbers.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:25 am
by DeletedUser
pdub wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:23 am
Bartorvik is giving Houston a 66% chance to win their next 3 and a 30% chance we do ( largely because of the Baylor game ).
I think that gives us just less than a 10% chance of us going into the Houston game with a chance to tie them.
Add ISU's chances to win the next 4 at 33%.
Thats a sub 8% chance we have the opportunity, in our last game, to win and share the B12.
I'm bad at math though so someone can check my numbers.
I'm not hopeful. Especially based on Self's comments about KM, somewhat implying they're saving him for the tournament.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:29 am
by twocoach
The Big 12 race is all but over and Self has already conceded it by holding McCullar out for likely the rest of the regular season. KU is in tourney prep mode now.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:31 am
by KUTradition
if there’s a regular season title on the line, even a share, when we go to houston, i don’t see any way KM sits out
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:37 am
by pdub
KUTradition wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:31 am
if there’s a regular season title on the line, even a share, when we go to houston, i don’t see any way KM sits out
I don't either.
But the chances of that are worse than the 7% above bc those stats are based on a Kansas team WITH Kevin.
We have less of a chance of winning our next three as Houston has in loosing one of the next three.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:39 am
by KUTradition
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:41 am
by DeletedUser
twocoach wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:29 am
KU is in tourney prep mode now.
And I'm okay with that.
We fucked ourselves in the league race weeks ago by playing so badly against UCF and WVU.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:42 am
by DeletedUser
pdub wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:37 am
KUTradition wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:31 am
if there’s a regular season title on the line, even a share, when we go to houston, i don’t see any way KM sits out
I don't either.
I'm not so sure. He must be more hurt than we originally thought.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:45 am
by pdub
If he could play, albeit clearly hampered, for 30+ minutes @ Oklahoma, I think he'd very much go vs Houston, almost two weeks from now, and three weeks from that Oklahoma game, if we had a chance to share the title.
I don't think the chances are great that Houston drops a game before then AND Iowa State drops a game before then AND we beat Baylor on the road without Kevin.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:46 am
by twocoach
DeletedUser wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:41 am
twocoach wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:29 am
KU is in tourney prep mode now.
And I'm okay with that.
We fucked ourselves in the league race weeks ago by playing so badly against UCF and WVU.
Yeah, West Virginia is so bad that despite the Big 12 schedule propping them up, they are still a Quad 3 loss. They are only 1 spot above Mizzou in the NET rankings despite Mizzou losing 14 straight and 17 of 18.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:53 am
by Sparko
WVU shot the ball out oftheir minds though. A couple of the losses were teams motivated like berzerkers
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 8:55 am
by pdub
KU was also up 16 points late in the 1st half to UCF.
Need to put that one away.
Without those absolutely terrible losses we'd be very much in the drivers seat at this point.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 9:03 am
by DeletedUser
Houston deserves it tbh.
Iowa State does not.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 12:21 pm
by Sparko
ISU deserves to play more hard road games.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 12:25 pm
by pdub
ISU should have played us twice and BYU once.
We should have played Oklahoma State once.
Iowa State was an OG B6 member - OSU not.
Our schedule would have gotten tougher -- but more importantly, ISU would have had to travel to AFH.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:04 pm
by TDub
pdub wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 12:25 pm
ISU should have played us twice and BYU once.
We should have played Oklahoma State once.
Iowa State was an OG B6 member - OSU not.
Our schedule would have gotten tougher -- but more importantly, ISU would have had to travel to AFH.
if we take care of business on our "easy" games and none of it matters.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:17 pm
by MICHHAWK
such is life in the world of the unbalanced schedule.
next year we will have 16 member schools. if we play a balanced schedule, that would be 30 league games. start conference play before thanksgiving. eliminate the conference tournament.
makes sense in my mind
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:29 pm
by pdub
As much as I find that the best way to determine a conference champion, I think it'd cut into non con, and I don't want to loose the chance to play some random teams in November and December.
I like those Thanksgiving mini tourneys.
Re: B12 2024
Posted: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:48 pm
by DeletedUser
pdub wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:29 pm
As much as I find that the best way to determine a conference champion, I think it'd cut into non con, and I don't want to loose the chance to play some random teams in November and December.
I like those Thanksgiving mini tourneys.
With all the money controlling everything now, I wouldn't be surprised if the season just becomes 4 or 5 games longer for everyone at some point.
