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Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 11:56 am
by MICHHAWK
Savanna Guthrie ain’t gonna have you on the today show if your answer is “we just don’t know what this thing is gonna do.” Don lemon won’t book you if your answer is “ we just don’t know for sure what this thing is gonna do”
“We don’t know for sure” is just not sensational enough. It doesn’t keep the folks hysterical.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 12:25 pm
by Deleted User 289
I'm loving that Mich is responsible for replacing the famous tax invasion and treason with elite and hysterical.
Funniest thing to me is I don't think Mich actually realizes in some of his posts he comes off as an "elite" and "hysterical".
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 12:38 pm
by PhDhawk
MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 11:56 am
Savanna Guthrie ain’t gonna have you on the today show if your answer is “we just don’t know what this thing is gonna do.” Don lemon won’t book you if your answer is “ we just don’t know for sure what this thing is gonna do”
“We don’t know for sure” is just not sensational enough. It doesn’t keep the folks hysterical.
We're quite a ways past that point though. We now know a lot about this virus.
The biggest variable in this is now the human element. And that's why you see the oft spoken of models changing, it has to do with whether people stay home or not. It's not about the virus. We have enough data to, at the very least know the minimum infectivity rate depending on what the human response is.
Not to mention, we've sequenced it many times, we know it's rate of mutation. We know it's cellular target and how it attaches to human cells, how it enters cells, how it replicates, etc. Because of incomplete testing and biases in testing, the rate of infection might be higher than what we've seen, and concomitantly the death rate may be lower. But it's a silly argument to say "we don't know". We actually know a lot about this virus, and similar viruses, and that body of knowledge is growing every day. Thanks mostly to the elites that you so despise.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 12:40 pm
by CrimsonNBlue
We don't know any of that. Because, if you don't know the entire future, then you don't know anything.
#FreeTheLinks
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 12:46 pm
by PhDhawk
If the wiring in your house was a fire hazard and not up to code, would you just leave it because "we don't know for certain that it will burn your house to the ground". No you'd get it replaced, and who would you have do it. Some untrained person who knows nothing about it, or an electrician? I'd hire the electrician. I mean, the equivalent argument is that because an electrician doesn't "know for sure" what's the deal with ALL the wiring in ALL of my house, that his expertise no longer matters. Geezus that's dumb.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 12:49 pm
by PhDhawk
Economics experts don't know for sure what the future of the economy is either. I mean, should we ignore them?
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 2:00 pm
by Shirley
MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 11:35 am
We don’t know what the virus is going to do. We don’t know what it is going to do today, tomorrow, a month from now, 6 months from now. We don’t know. It is all pure speculation.
But the elite won’t tell us that because “we don’t know” doesn’t fit the hysterical narrative.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 2:58 pm
by MICHHAWK
On the plus side, so far almost every prediction has been wrong. I can only assume they will continue with that trend.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 2:59 pm
by CrimsonNBlue
PhDhawk wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:49 pm
Economics experts don't know for sure what the future of the economy is either. I mean, should we ignore them?
This reminds me, Kevin Kietzman went on a drunken twitter rant about how COVID-19 is a hoax and his premise was that all stat models are bullshit because every KC meteorologist predicted rain on Saturday and it did not rain.
I'm 100% serious. And, it rained about an hour or two after his tirade.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 3:06 pm
by Shirley
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 2:59 pm
PhDhawk wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:49 pm
Economics experts don't know for sure what the future of the economy is either. I mean, should we ignore them?
This reminds me, Kevin Kietzman went on a drunken twitter rant about how COVID-19 is a hoax and his premise was that all stat models are bullshit because every KC meteorologist predicted rain on Saturday and it did not rain.
I'm 100% serious. And, it rained about an hour or two after his tirade.
It would require a relocation, but it sounds like he has a bright future running for congress in a district of his choice, in Florida.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 3:07 pm
by jfish26
MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 2:58 pm
On the plus side, so far almost every prediction has been wrong. I can only assume they will continue with that trend.
See, no one guessed right. Not a single one of you knew how many jelly beans were in the oil drum.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 3:11 pm
by CrimsonNBlue
MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 2:58 pmso far
almost every prediction has been wrong.
Thanks for the acknowledgment:
MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:01 pm
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:48 pm
As I've posted before, the US is on the verge of becoming thee hotbed for the virus.
You keep posting this as if you actually know what you are talking about. Like some expert or something.
Will you be disappointed if your prediction does not come true?
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 3:25 pm
by MICHHAWK
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they have been wrong almost every step of the way. As they have been predicting Worse case scenario the whole time. I’m glad they are wrong almost all the time.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 3:35 pm
by Deleted User 62
MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 3:25 pm
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they have been wrong almost every step of the way. As they have been predicting Worse case scenario the whole time. I’m glad they are wrong almost all the time.
A "misery loves company kind" of thing?
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 3:46 pm
by PhDhawk
MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 3:25 pm
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they have been wrong almost every step of the way. As they have been predicting Worse case scenario the whole time. I’m glad they are wrong almost all the time.
This is the problem with models. People react to them, which, immediately means the model needs to change. That's not scientists being wrong, that's the nature of models.
The actual science, once established, has been right, for example, route of transmission hasn't changed since it was verified.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 3:52 pm
by Deleted User 62
PhDhawk wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 3:46 pm
MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 3:25 pm
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they have been wrong almost every step of the way. As they have been predicting Worse case scenario the whole time. I’m glad they are wrong almost all the time.
This is the problem with models. People react to them, which, immediately means the model needs to change. That's not scientists being wrong, that's the nature of models.
The actual science, once established, has been right, for example, route of transmission hasn't changed since it was verified.
Mitigation steps, real and imagined, certainly made the models a moving target.
I am so tired of people saying "see, it hasn't affected that many people...I knew it was bullshit".
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 4:11 pm
by Shirley
MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 3:25 pm
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they have been wrong almost every step of the way. As they have been predicting Worse case scenario the whole time. I’m glad they are wrong almost all the time.
MIchhawk, do you remember that this is a "new" virus, one that's related to viruses we know, but with properties that we can't begin to know, because it appears we've never seen it before?
The models that the
"the elites" have been trying to construct in order to attempt to make predictions, predictions we're all eager for, are full of variables, unknown variables, when the pandemic started. Here's a partial list:
Transmission:
How is it spread?
Is it spread by asymptomatic people?
Is it spread by blood?
Aerosol?
Saliva?
Semen?
Fecal to oral?
Cough?
Sneeze?
Regular conversation?
Inanimate objects?
How long does it live on those objects?
What's the incubation period? How in the world can you give people efficacious advice if we don't know the time between exposure to the virus and when you become infectious?
And here's a variable for you: How compliant will over 300 million people in the US be with the public health recommendations? Because this variable has everything to do with the rate of transmission.
etc.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 4:16 pm
by PhDhawk
Feral wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 4:11 pm
MICHHAWK wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 3:25 pm
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they have been wrong almost every step of the way. As they have been predicting Worse case scenario the whole time. I’m glad they are wrong almost all the time.
MIchhawk, do you remember that this is a "new" virus, one that's related to viruses we know, but with properties that we can't begin to know, because it appears we've never seen it before?
The models that the
"the elites" have been trying to construct in order to attempt to make predictions, predictions we're all eager for, are full of variables, unknown variables, when the pandemic started. Here's a partial list:
Transmission:
How is it spread?
Is it spread by asymptomatic people?
Is it spread by blood?
Aerosol?
Saliva?
Semen?
Fecal to oral?
Cough?
Sneeze?
Regular conversation?
Inanimate objects?
How long does it live on those objects?
What's the incubation period? How in the world can you give people efficacious advice if we don't know the time between exposure to the virus and when you become infectious?
And here's a variable for you: How compliant will over 300 million people in the US be with the public health recommendations? Because this variable has everything to do with the rate of transmission.
etc.
Right. And now, thanks to elitist assholes, we have the answers to many if these questions.
The big questions are things like the last one.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 4:23 pm
by PhDhawk
This is from reddit.
It shows that rate of infection decreases every time human behavior changes.
This isn't about scientists getting it wrong. It shows that mitigation works.
Re: Where's the petri dish thread?
Posted: Tue May 12, 2020 4:26 pm
by jfish26
PhDhawk wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 4:23 pm
This is from reddit.
It shows that rate of infection decreases every time human behavior changes.
This isn't about scientists getting it wrong. It shows that mitigation works.
And yet, here in the US, the logic appears to be, "it worked, let's stop early."