Kansas Crimson

“If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running”

ousdahl wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 9:23 pm “If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running”

“There is no nobler motive for entering public life than the resolution not to be ruled by wicked men.”
- Cicero

I suppose that applies

Tho my mind first went to the Hunter S. Thompson line about elk during the rut

ousdahl wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 10:02 pm I suppose that applies

Tho my mind first went to the Hunter S. Thompson line about elk during the rut

I can't imagine when it would "apply" more than after a lawless fascist like Trump attempted a coup, ignored the will of the American people, sent a violent mob to the capitol to stop the peaceful transfer of power for the first time in our country's history, and is threatening to try to do so again, but you be you...

Today In: When bad news is good news!

Stocks are up because fewer jobs were created than expected. This implies that the Fed, after raising rates 5.25% in a little over a year and maintaining that they might increase rates again in the future, are less likely to need to, because the economy is already cooling enough.

And, more evidence that inflation was not so much due to increased labor costs, as profit margins, i.e., price gouging...

U.S. stock futures rose Wednesday as investors cheered economic data indicating inflation is falling.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 76 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100
futures added 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

The advances come on the back of the latest batch of economic data. A drop in labor costs boded positively for the path of inflation, while a jump in productivity signaled the potential for the economy to skirt a recession. Private payroll data from ADP offered the latest indication that the job market, long considered a pain point for the Federal Reserve, was easing.

“ADP’s payroll data shows the Fed’s anti-inflation treatment is now really taking effect,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at online investing platform TradeStation. “The numbers point toward a soft landing, but investors may start to worry about a recession if policy remains too hawkish. It’s the Fed’s battle to lose at this point.”

Stock futures took a leg up Wednesday morning following the release of Labor Department data on unit labor costs fell more than economists forecasted while productivity increased at a higher rate than anticipated. These releases came shortly after the closely watched job market data from payrolls processing firm ADP.

Wednesday’s ADP report is the latest in a string of labor-focused data expected over the course of the week. Investors will monitor jobless claims numbers on Thursday, followed by the key data on nonfarm payrolls, wages and the unemployment rate on Friday...

_____________________________________________

On the economic front, ADP's measure of private employment for November arrived at +103K compared to the expected figure of +123K.

Also, the Q3 productivity and costs figures arrived. Nonfarm Productivity came in at +5.2% versus +4.8% and unit labor costs were -1.2% compared to the -0.9% consensus figure.

..."It is unit labor costs, not wages (and absolutely not average hourly earnings) that best reflect labor cost inflation pressures. The trends in unit labor costs make clear labor markets were never really tight,' and that profits rather than labor were behind the latest inflation episode."

My team at work got approval to backfill an opening that has been open for nearly a year so things must be looking more positive. If we could add one more spot after that we'd really be cooking and I could morph my job into the role I really want it to be but that's another discussion.

With unemployment so low, it seems like jobs growing slower than expected is a tolerable "bad thing that has some good side effects" if it signals to those with money to invest that inflation is cooling and rate hikes are starting to do what they were intended to do.

The US economy is a massive, heavy fucking train moving at a very high speed; it's hard to affect its direction quickly.

That whirring sound you hear is rube-handlers lowering the SKYROCKETING INFLATION flag and readying the SKYROCKETING UNEMPLOYMENT one.

(Along these lines - a few weeks ago I picked some friends/neighbors up to bring them home from a raucous night out. They know that, at the moment anyway, I lean heavily blue (and they do not). Passing a gas station advertising $2.49/gallon gas, one of the wives said something like, “[Fish], I’m sorry in advance, but can we all talk about what bullshit these gas prices are? Do they think they’re fooling anyone, with prices coming back down right before the next election??!?”

That one can Uber from now on.)

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:02 am That whirring sound you hear is rube-handlers lowering the SKYROCKETING INFLATION flag and readying the SKYROCKETING UNEMPLOYMENT one.

(Along these lines - a few weeks ago I picked some friends/neighbors up to bring them home from a raucous night out. They know that, at the moment anyway, I lean heavily blue (and they do not). Passing a gas station advertising $2.49/gallon gas, one of the wives said something like, “[Fish], I’m sorry in advance, but can we all talk about what bullshit these gas prices are? Do they think they’re fooling anyone, with prices coming back down right before the next election??!?”

That one can Uber from now on.)

I guess her and I have a different definition of "right before" as it relates to an election that isn't for another 11 months.

twocoach wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:06 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:02 am That whirring sound you hear is rube-handlers lowering the SKYROCKETING INFLATION flag and readying the SKYROCKETING UNEMPLOYMENT one.

(Along these lines - a few weeks ago I picked some friends/neighbors up to bring them home from a raucous night out. They know that, at the moment anyway, I lean heavily blue (and they do not). Passing a gas station advertising $2.49/gallon gas, one of the wives said something like, “[Fish], I’m sorry in advance, but can we all talk about what bullshit these gas prices are? Do they think they’re fooling anyone, with prices coming back down right before the next election??!?”

That one can Uber from now on.)

I guess her and I have a different definition of "right before" as it relates to an election that isn't for another 11 months.

Because you live in reality, and she lives in the MAGAverse where it is taken as an article of faith that everything in Joe Biden's America sucks, and anything that appears to not, in fact, suck, is anticipatory ELECTION INTERFERENCE.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:20 am

twocoach wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:06 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:02 am That whirring sound you hear is rube-handlers lowering the SKYROCKETING INFLATION flag and readying the SKYROCKETING UNEMPLOYMENT one.

(Along these lines - a few weeks ago I picked some friends/neighbors up to bring them home from a raucous night out. They know that, at the moment anyway, I lean heavily blue (and they do not). Passing a gas station advertising $2.49/gallon gas, one of the wives said something like, “[Fish], I’m sorry in advance, but can we all talk about what bullshit these gas prices are? Do they think they’re fooling anyone, with prices coming back down right before the next election??!?”

That one can Uber from now on.)

I guess her and I have a different definition of "right before" as it relates to an election that isn't for another 11 months.

Because you live in reality, and she lives in the MAGAverse where it is taken as an article of faith that everything in Joe Biden's America sucks, and anything that appears to not, in fact, suck, is anticipatory ELECTION INTERFERENCE.

Some people have been so brainwashed that they think there is some giant conspiracy everywhere. Others understand that there will be times where demand increases and prices will go up ahead of those times.

twocoach wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:25 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:20 am

twocoach wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:06 am

I guess her and I have a different definition of "right before" as it relates to an election that isn't for another 11 months.

Because you live in reality, and she lives in the MAGAverse where it is taken as an article of faith that everything in Joe Biden's America sucks, and anything that appears to not, in fact, suck, is anticipatory ELECTION INTERFERENCE.

Some people have been so brainwashed that they think there is some giant conspiracy everywhere. Others understand that there will be times where demand increases and prices will go up ahead of those times.

It's hard to imagine complaining about gas being only $2.49/gallon, but being pathologically aggrieved seems to be a requirement for membership in the MAGA cult these days. And, as both jfish and twocoach point out, the immunity to reality and brainwashing have been on full display here, as Psych and Randi complained endlessly about Biden knee-capping the oil industry in the US, despite oil production being at its highest level in our nation's history during the Biden Administration, as discussed below.

From Seeking Alpha this morning:

Energy prices keep on slipping, with benchmark West Texas Intermediate (CL1:COM) so far down 22% in the fourth quarter and the average price of stateside gasoline falling 16% to $3.21 a gallon. It comes as the U.S. continues to pump crude at a record rate, cranking out a record 13.2M barrels a day, which is more than oil-exporting heavyweights Russia and Saudi Arabia. The developments have been a boon to the American consumer, as well as the Federal Reserve, which continues to receive much applause from the market for keeping inflation at bay.

Bigger picture: OPEC members have been forced to respond to record U.S. production, with tensions most apparent in the reactions from kingpin Saudi Arabia. So far the Kingdom's strategy has been to slash more output, but the deeper cuts have not resonated with oil bulls and have even formed some cracks within the OPEC+ group. Economic weakness in China, Russia's shadow fleet and the removal of fear premiums from the Israel-Hamas war have also helped contribute to oil's decline, and the Saudis are hesitant to go nuclear by opening the taps, which would dent U.S. shale but cause it to lose many OPEC friends in the interim...

If only we had more refined petrol available so that we’re swimming in it. (So to speak)

dolomite wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 4:01 pm If only we had more refined petrol available so that we’re swimming in it. (So to speak)

^^^

Try tho I might, and in fairness to myself I'm only human and what with all the infrastructure and the repeal and replacement of Obama Care and making Mexico pay for the wall and $1.9 trillion dollars in tax cuts for the rich that Trump and his republican-controlled house and senate accomplished in his first two years, I can't seem to recall how many refineries the Trump Admin approved from 2017-2019?

Big boy chair problems.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/06/politics ... index.html

RainbowsandUnicorns wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 6:03 pm Big boy chair problems.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/06/politics ... index.html

…sort of.

https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/173246 ... q_-8Yt1KMA

The best reply to that tweet:

We had record high inflation last year and voters still rejected trump's candidates. Think about that for a second. Voters hate trump more than inflation.

These four things can be true at the same time:

1 - “the economy” is significantly better than public perception

2 - “the economy” is lumpy, and so improvements/growth should not be expected to be felt uniformly

3 - Biden’s economic policies are sounder than Trump’s (such that there are any)

4 - Biden’s economic policies are imperfect and deserving of a critical eye

5. The Fed is tilting at Windmills

More Perfect Union
@MorePerfectUS
BREAKING: The biggest chicken and tuna companies in the U.S. have been found guilty of price fixing.

Now thousands of people are getting paid with money recovered from the corporations.

The State of Washington is using over $40 million to send checks to 402,200 households.
3:35 PM · Dec 6, 2023

Oil closed below $70 per barrel today at $69.70.