Kansas Crimson

NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:14 pm

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:08 pm

NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:59 am

Izzo in March is overrated. Last year they made Final 4, which is great. But there hasn't been a program like Michigan State that has lost games in the 1st and 2nd rounds like Izzo's Spartans have. Especially being a high 2 or 3 seed.

K and Duke seem to have the most early bow outs as a high seed.


As for Sparty, it just seems their ceiling is as high as ours. Maybe only Kentucky could say the same thing. I just really like our team.

As I looked just now. In last 18 years. Spartans out in first weekend 8 times. Duke 5 times. Self/KU 6 times.

I'd guess Sparty has quite a bit less 1-3 seeds in that time frame than the other 2. They're not built for a season-long elite power run and aren't nearly as consistent year-to-year, partly b/c they're not as big of a brand.

I recall seeing a graphic where Izzo outplayed his seed more than any coach. I think that's where his reputation was really built.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:13 pm 5 FF's in 18 is really good, though.

I would guess only Roy could match. Maybe K.

I agree. That is very impressive. But he's also had so many early flame outs. He either gets knocked out very early or goes to Elite 8 or Final 4. And it doesn't seem to matter the seed. They've lost first game as a 2 seed, and advance to Final 4 as a 7 seed.

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:17 pm

NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:14 pm

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:08 pm

K and Duke seem to have the most early bow outs as a high seed.


As for Sparty, it just seems their ceiling is as high as ours. Maybe only Kentucky could say the same thing. I just really like our team.

As I looked just now. In last 18 years. Spartans out in first weekend 8 times. Duke 5 times. Self/KU 6 times.

I'd guess Sparty has quite a bit less 1-3 seeds in that time frame than the other 2. They're not built for a season-long elite power run and aren't nearly as consistent year-to-year, partly b/c they're not as big of a brand.

I recall seeing a graphic where Izzo outplayed his seed more than any coach. I think that's where his reputation was really built.

Part of it is endemic to Big Ten ball. Because the pace is slower, there are fewer possessions in each game. That compresses the quality gap between teams, which means the best teams will take more losses in that league than they would in a faster-paced league.

That costs you on Selection Sunday, resulting in underseeding.

Which results in outperforming your seed.

And Michigan State under Izzo is notorious for playing, and losing, tough non con games early that cost them a few seeds.

Still too few data points to determine if the flaws for all of the good teams are temporary and will go away or if they will be fatal flaws.

The one thing I am certain of is that all of the top teams have a few pretty glaring flaws right now. Kansas has a great shot at a deep run this season for sure.

Joshua Langford being out has really, really hurt Michigan St...he's not their most important player, but I think he's the best, most talented dude on their team.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:24 pm

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:17 pm

NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:14 pm

As I looked just now. In last 18 years. Spartans out in first weekend 8 times. Duke 5 times. Self/KU 6 times.

I'd guess Sparty has quite a bit less 1-3 seeds in that time frame than the other 2. They're not built for a season-long elite power run and aren't nearly as consistent year-to-year, partly b/c they're not as big of a brand.

I recall seeing a graphic where Izzo outplayed his seed more than any coach. I think that's where his reputation was really built.

Part of it is endemic to Big Ten ball. Because the pace is slower, there are fewer possessions in each game. That compresses the quality gap between teams, which means the best teams will take more losses in that league than they would in a faster-paced league.

That costs you on Selection Sunday, resulting in underseeding.

Which results in outperforming your seed.

Why is it that big-tenning up a game can hamstring the best teams, rather than the best teams dictating the pace they want?

This logic may be even tougher than the whole “impose our size against smaller teams,” which rarely seems to go as planned.

ousdahl wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:30 pm

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:24 pm

CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:17 pm

I'd guess Sparty has quite a bit less 1-3 seeds in that time frame than the other 2. They're not built for a season-long elite power run and aren't nearly as consistent year-to-year, partly b/c they're not as big of a brand.

I recall seeing a graphic where Izzo outplayed his seed more than any coach. I think that's where his reputation was really built.

Part of it is endemic to Big Ten ball. Because the pace is slower, there are fewer possessions in each game. That compresses the quality gap between teams, which means the best teams will take more losses in that league than they would in a faster-paced league.

That costs you on Selection Sunday, resulting in underseeding.

Which results in outperforming your seed.

Why is it that big-tenning up a game can hamstring the best teams, rather than the best teams dictating the pace they want?

This logic may be even tougher than the whole “impose our size against smaller teams,” which rarely seems to go as planned.

In the most basic way of looking at things, what makes one team better than another is points per possession (and points allowed per possession). Logically, there should be less "noise" in a game where there are more possessions - more chances for the better team to be the better team, and so on.

Not only does a slower-paced game mean that luck plays a bigger factor in what the score IS late in the game, but the fact that a game tends to be closer, later, introduces the highest variance - what happens over the course of a possession or two, an impossibly small sample size in which anything can happen.

Put differently, you can't lose on a 3 at the buzzer if you're up 10. And (if you're the more efficient team), the best way to be up 10 is to have more possessions in which your efficiency can build an advantage over time.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:56 pm Not only does a slower-paced game mean that luck plays a bigger factor in what the score IS late in the game, but the fact that a game tends to be closer, later, introduces the highest variance - what happens over the course of a possession or two, an impossibly small sample size in which anything can happen.

Maybe a good way to explain Virginia loosing to a 16 seed and then the following year winning the whole thing.

Marquette and Howard nightcap at the kitties.

lotta empty seats. was there a snowstorm in manhattan?

Marquette is putting a thumpin on statie

KU

Baylor

West Virginia
Tech
OSU
OU
ISU
Texas


TCU
ksu

poor weberace

That middle group is tough to rank but will all be in the decent range I think and all could make the tourney.

of note, ksu has the 295th strongest schedule and is 5-3.

I might sound crazy for saying this but I think OSU will finish 2nd in the Big 12...

You say that and then they go and get beat down to Wichita State in Stillwater.

pdub wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:08 pm You say that and then they go and get beat down to Wichita State in Stillwater.

I'm the best predictor of failure I guess haha!

thekid6 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:13 pm

pdub wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:08 pm You say that and then they go and get beat down to Wichita State in Stillwater.

I'm the best predictor of failure I guess haha!

Who do you think will finish first?

Mjl wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:35 pm

thekid6 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:13 pm

pdub wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:08 pm You say that and then they go and get beat down to Wichita State in Stillwater.

I'm the best predictor of failure I guess haha!

Who do you think will finish first?

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