Kansas Crimson

Grandma wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:50 am I'm laughing because Trump is the one who contracted the virus (probably due to negligence) and now he is refusing to do a debate if it's not in person. What a fucking dickhead.
Apparently this was Trump's response and complaint -
Trump complained during the interview with Fox that a virtual debate would mean he would have to "sit behind a computer" in a virtual debate and the moderator could "cut you off whenever they want."

KInda like how most of us have been forced to do meetings for work for the last 7 months thanks to his incompetent management of COVID.

twocoach wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:56 am

Grandma wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:50 am I'm laughing because Trump is the one who contracted the virus (probably due to negligence) and now he is refusing to do a debate if it's not in person. What a fucking dickhead.
Apparently this was Trump's response and complaint -
Trump complained during the interview with Fox that a virtual debate would mean he would have to "sit behind a computer" in a virtual debate and the moderator could "cut you off whenever they want."

KInda like how most of us have been forced to do meetings for work for the last 7 months thanks to his incompetent management of COVID.

He's put himself in quite the box. It sure seems like we're down to a few discrete possibilities:

1 - He thinks he's going to actually win the election, despite, you know, math.

2 - He is resigned to losing.

3 - He is confident in the fuckery to come.

Walrus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:03 pm It was a draw tonight, which ultimately benefits Trump/Pence. I was concerned Harris would come out tonight on fire, but that didn't happen. She did well enough to hurt Pence on some areas, and Pence did the same. But like the first debate for Biden, all Pence had to do was not screw up, and he did well. There's more pressure on Trump to do well in the next debate, as Biden won the first, and this one was essentially meaningless.

This is a great lobs post.

It wasn't a draw. And a draw would not ultimately benefit Trump/Pence.

Bravo.

A beatdown on Harris wouldn't be enough. Last night was pro forma.

But if you want to get on who "won," Harris polled 59% to Pence's 38%. (I assume the fly took the last 3). https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/politics ... index.html

Unless it was 10-90 Pence, I don't see how last night would move the needle even 1 point either way.

NiceDC wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:47 am I know a lot of people are skeptical of polling, but I still am a fan of it. Either way, 538's aggregator/model had Biden with a 71% chance to 85% chance in the last month. I know that doesn't sound like much, but the model is very conservative, and has a lot of weird contingencies built in (like people dying) so it is notable. Clinton at the end had a 71% chance of winning 4 years ago to show where the landscape shifted to.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

85%! That's insane. And I don't care about the projections from last election. They were wrong, but numbers can be wrong every once in a while, I think the race is pretty clear this year. Texas is the closest that it's probably ever been. What a mess for Trump.

When the only base that backs you tremendously is the Southeast and from Oklahoma up to the Dakotas and a little west of that, there's not much there to go off of.

Like I try so hard to be middle of the aisle on a lot of issues. There are a few things that I definitely lean to either side, but with this administration and complete failure that they've had, I can't stay middle this year.

Another 4 years of this would be a dumpster fire. An absolutely dumpster fire.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:21 am

Walrus wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:03 pm It was a draw tonight, which ultimately benefits Trump/Pence. I was concerned Harris would come out tonight on fire, but that didn't happen. She did well enough to hurt Pence on some areas, and Pence did the same. But like the first debate for Biden, all Pence had to do was not screw up, and he did well. There's more pressure on Trump to do well in the next debate, as Biden won the first, and this one was essentially meaningless.

This is a great lobs post.

It wasn't a draw. And a draw would not ultimately benefit Trump/Pence.

Bravo.

I disagree. I and I know many others who feel last night was a "draw". If it wasn't then who stood out as the winner? Harris? No. She was weaker (in several ways) than I expected. Pence was exactly who and what I expected him to be. I think he did just fine - for being Mike Pence.

It seems you assume Biden is going to win the election. On October 8th of 2016 I assumed Hillary was going to win. Clearly I assumed wrong. At least I did in terms of the amount of "electoral college" "votes" she received.
I feel someone would be foolish to be extremely confident Donald Trump will absolutely lose this election.

NONE of us know for sure what is going to happen on November 3rd (and beyond). None of us know for sure who every American is going to vote for. Therefore, we can't say 100% for sure if a "draw" last night could actually benefit Trump/Pence - or not.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:19 am

twocoach wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:56 am

Grandma wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:50 am I'm laughing because Trump is the one who contracted the virus (probably due to negligence) and now he is refusing to do a debate if it's not in person. What a fucking dickhead.
Apparently this was Trump's response and complaint -
Trump complained during the interview with Fox that a virtual debate would mean he would have to "sit behind a computer" in a virtual debate and the moderator could "cut you off whenever they want."

KInda like how most of us have been forced to do meetings for work for the last 7 months thanks to his incompetent management of COVID.

He's put himself in quite the box. It sure seems like we're down to a few discrete possibilities:

1 - He thinks he's going to actually win the election, despite, you know, math.

2 - He is resigned to losing.

3 - He is confident in the fuckery to come.

3 is the scariest

NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:27 am

NiceDC wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:47 am I know a lot of people are skeptical of polling, but I still am a fan of it. Either way, 538's aggregator/model had Biden with a 71% chance to 85% chance in the last month. I know that doesn't sound like much, but the model is very conservative, and has a lot of weird contingencies built in (like people dying) so it is notable. Clinton at the end had a 71% chance of winning 4 years ago to show where the landscape shifted to.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

85%! That's insane. And I don't care about the projections from last election. They were wrong, but numbers can be wrong every once in a while, I think the race is pretty clear this year. Texas is the closest that it's probably ever been. What a mess for Trump.

When the only base that backs you tremendously is the Southeast and from Oklahoma up to the Dakotas and a little west of that, there's not much there to go off of.

Like I try so hard to be middle of the aisle on a lot of issues. There are a few things that I definitely lean to either side, but with this administration and complete failure that they've had, I can't stay middle this year.

Another 4 years of this would be a dumpster fire. An absolutely dumpster fire.

71% "Chance"? 85% "Chance"? Am I wrong to say both guys have a 100% "chance" of winning - or losing?
I believe polls, I believe analytics. I also believe neither are 100% accurate nor are perfect representations (or even indicators) of ALL of the actual voters and how they will vote.
I would never bet anything that mattered to me that Trump is going to lose this election.

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:19 am

twocoach wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:56 am

Grandma wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:50 am I'm laughing because Trump is the one who contracted the virus (probably due to negligence) and now he is refusing to do a debate if it's not in person. What a fucking dickhead.
Apparently this was Trump's response and complaint -
Trump complained during the interview with Fox that a virtual debate would mean he would have to "sit behind a computer" in a virtual debate and the moderator could "cut you off whenever they want."

KInda like how most of us have been forced to do meetings for work for the last 7 months thanks to his incompetent management of COVID.

He's put himself in quite the box. It sure seems like we're down to a few discrete possibilities:

1 - He thinks he's going to actually win the election, despite, you know, math.

2 - He is resigned to losing.

3 - He is confident in the fuckery to come.

You forgot 4 - He is a childish toddler who throws a fit when things are not the way he wants them to be.

NiceDC wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:25 am A beatdown on Harris wouldn't be enough. Last night was pro forma.

But if you want to get on who "won," Harris polled 59% to Pence's 38%. (I assume the fly took the last 3). https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/politics ... index.html

Unless it was 10-90 Pence, I don't see how last night would move the needle even 1 point either way.

even 600 random utahans thought Kamala “won” (quoted on local morning news)

it seems foxnews is the only outlet whose poll has pence on top

NiceDC wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:25 am A beatdown on Harris wouldn't be enough. Last night was pro forma.

But if you want to get on who "won," Harris polled 59% to Pence's 38%. (I assume the fly took the last 3). https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/politics ... index.html

Unless it was 10-90 Pence, I don't see how last night would move the needle even 1 point either way.

Most Biden voters would never "poll" that Pence won no matter what. So i take those with a grain of salt since that 59%/38% # probably matches up pretty well with what the national % will be for popular vote when it is all said an done.

TraditionKU wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:46 am even 600 random utahans thought Kamala “won” (quoted on local morning news)

it seems foxnews is the only outlet whose poll has pence on top

Can you point to that Fox News poll? I didn't see anything that had Pence on top (where Mother likes it).

Somewhat related, went to the comment section trying to find poll info on Fox News website. Lot of sexist, racist, and just confusing attacks on Harris. They really don't like black women over there.

NiceDC wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:56 am

TraditionKU wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:46 am even 600 random utahans thought Kamala “won” (quoted on local morning news)

it seems foxnews is the only outlet whose poll has pence on top

Can you point to that Fox News poll? I didn't see anything that had Pence on top (where Mother likes it).

Somewhat related, went to the comment section trying to find poll info on Fox News website. Lot of sexist, racist, and just confusing attacks on Harris. They really don't like black women over there.

i can’t find it either. it was quoted by the the local nbc affiliate (ksl), which is LDS-backed and trends more conservative than the cbs or abc affiliates

re: not liking black women...i mean, have you seen the demographic of their anchors? makes a barbie outlet look diverse

But they have that one lady, Harris Faulkner, in a big role there. So they're all good in their eyes.

NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:27 am

NiceDC wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:47 am I know a lot of people are skeptical of polling, but I still am a fan of it. Either way, 538's aggregator/model had Biden with a 71% chance to 85% chance in the last month. I know that doesn't sound like much, but the model is very conservative, and has a lot of weird contingencies built in (like people dying) so it is notable. Clinton at the end had a 71% chance of winning 4 years ago to show where the landscape shifted to.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

85%! That's insane. And I don't care about the projections from last election. They were wrong, but numbers can be wrong every once in a while, I think the race is pretty clear this year. Texas is the closest that it's probably ever been. What a mess for Trump.

When the only base that backs you tremendously is the Southeast and from Oklahoma up to the Dakotas and a little west of that, there's not much there to go off of.

Like I try so hard to be middle of the aisle on a lot of issues. There are a few things that I definitely lean to either side, but with this administration and complete failure that they've had, I can't stay middle this year.

Another 4 years of this would be a dumpster fire. An absolutely dumpster fire.

We can only hope other centrists share your view.

TraditionKU wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:06 am

NiceDC wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:56 am

TraditionKU wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:46 am even 600 random utahans thought Kamala “won” (quoted on local morning news)

it seems foxnews is the only outlet whose poll has pence on top

Can you point to that Fox News poll? I didn't see anything that had Pence on top (where Mother likes it).

Somewhat related, went to the comment section trying to find poll info on Fox News website. Lot of sexist, racist, and just confusing attacks on Harris. They really don't like black women over there.

i can’t find it either. it was quoted by the the local nbc affiliate (ksl), which is LDS-backed and trends more conservative than the cbs or abc affiliates

re: not liking black women...i mean, have you seen the demographic of their anchors? makes a barbie outlet look diverse

Hey now, they have that 1 black dude on "the five" that they always gang up on whenever he goes against their opinions.

....and they always have that Leo2.0 guy on.

NewtonHawk11 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:12 am But they have that one lady, Harris Faulkner, in a big role there. So they're all good in their eyes.

She got her start in KC. Watched her for a long time there. On fox, not so much.

twocoach wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:41 am

jfish26 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:19 am

twocoach wrote: ↑Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:56 am
KInda like how most of us have been forced to do meetings for work for the last 7 months thanks to his incompetent management of COVID.

He's put himself in quite the box. It sure seems like we're down to a few discrete possibilities:

1 - He thinks he's going to actually win the election, despite, you know, math.

2 - He is resigned to losing.

3 - He is confident in the fuckery to come.

You forgot 4 - He is a childish toddler who throws a fit when things are not the way he wants them to be.

I guess, to me, that's #1.

One telling dynamic was on display during the debate yesterday which I didn’t see too many people pick up on. Kamala referred to her running mate as “Joe” throughout the debate. Pence referred to his running mate as “President Trump”. One would think that by now they would have a certain level of familiarity, after four+ years together.

Meh, that is a respect thing. Harris also refused to refer to him as President Trump iirc, she just called/calls him Donald Trump.

A few months ago Harris was ripping Biden apart. So i don't buy that they are super close friends all of a sudden. He knew he had to pick a black woman as his running mate and she was about the most high profile person that made sense.