NBA draft

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

Ouch furphy. Was at the green room tonight too. Bet he wishes he had come back now, should have

"Bet he wishes he had come back".... Why do you say that?
Yes, he MAY have been a first rounder next season. That I understand.
I think you are a guy who is somewhat in tune to the NBA, and my guess is you know there are guys who went in the 2nd round last year that got guaranteed contracts for a just little less than what guys who went in the 1st round got. Am I right?
So then if that's what happens with him, why would he wish he came back?

[pdub]

Because his guaranteed contract if he was drafted next season closer to where ESPN ranked him ( 18 ) would be 14-21 million dollars with 9 of it guaranteed. Most teams who spend an 18th pick up at least the 4th year so that’d be 14 million dollars.

Meanwhile the highest guaranteed contract signed by a 2nd rounder was for 5 million…that’s the highest, most get 2 way contracts worth about 600k a year.

Hence why he likely lost over 5-10 million dollars here. Maybe more.

And yes I think the odds of him improving to that point at KU would have been extremely high as Self has an excellent track record at improving his players.

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

Because his guaranteed contract if he was drafted next season closer to where ESPN ranked him ( 18 ) would be 14-21 million dollars with 9 of it guaranteed. Most teams who spend an 18th pick up at least the 4th year so that’d be 14 million dollars.

Meanwhile the highest guaranteed contract signed by a 2nd rounder was for 5 million…that’s the highest, most get 2 way contracts worth about 600k a year.

Hence why he likely lost over 5-10 million dollars here. Maybe more.

And yes I think the odds of him improving to that point at KU would have been extremely high as Self has an excellent track record at improving his players.

I appreciate your thoughtful response. I wouldn't have expected to get that from randy but maybe he would have surprised me.

First sentence - "if".

Neither of us know what his 2nd round contract will be. "If" it is just under what Dunn, Collier, and Scheierman get, then what's the problem?

"likely" Yes. But we don't know for sure.

Odds are he would improve to that point if he came back. Maybe. Probably?
There are also odds he wouldn't improve, wouldn't go 1st round next season, and could get injured.

[DeletedUser]

He just very likely lost multiple millions. Like minimum five million, maybe ten.

Interesting to see Knecht fall because of his age.

Furphy is one that I can't quite figure out. I think it's possible he could have stayed in school and still never been "sexy" enough to go first round.

Selden stayed, and it didn't work out. So it's not always a lock that staying in school = developing into a first round pick.

Do I think Furphy could have become a better player than Selden? Maybe. Probably. Better shooter. Significantly less physical tools.

Watching those first 10 picks was sort of eye opening this year. I hadn't really heard of several of those guys. The best NBA prospects aren't playing in college as much as they used to.

[DeletedUser]

Also, last night ESPNs "best available" was pretty much wrong every step of the way it seemed like.


Was Furphy the only green room invitee not drafted last night?

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

He just very likely lost multiple millions. Like minimum five million, maybe ten.

Interesting to see Knecht fall because of his age.

Furphy is one that I can't quite figure out. I think it's possible he could have stayed in school and still never been "sexy" enough to go first round.

Selden stayed, and it didn't work out. So it's not always a lock that staying in school = developing into a first round pick.

Do I think Furphy could have become a better player than Selden? Maybe. Probably. Better shooter. Significantly less physical tools.

Watching those first 10 picks was sort of eye opening this year. I hadn't really heard of several of those guys. The best NBA prospects aren't playing in college as much as they used to.

I don't know if Knecht fell because of his age but sure seems like teams preferred younger less experienced (I didn't say less skilled) guys.

We will never know the "what if" Furphy stayed. We can come up with assumptions (many extremely worthy/valid) but that's all they are - is assumptions.

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

Also, last night ESPNs "best available" was pretty much wrong every step of the way it seemed like.


Was Furphy the only green room invitee not drafted last night?

Filipowski too.

I'm not so sure the best available was "wrong" per se. All depended on what teams were looking for/wanted. For example, some teams wanted a Big and I'm confident Dunn was drafted for his defense.

[pdub]

He just very likely lost multiple millions. Like minimum five million, maybe ten.

Interesting to see Knecht fall because of his age.

Furphy is one that I can't quite figure out. I think it's possible he could have stayed in school and still never been "sexy" enough to go first round.

Selden stayed, and it didn't work out. So it's not always a lock that staying in school = developing into a first round pick.

Do I think Furphy could have become a better player than Selden? Maybe. Probably. Better shooter. Significantly less physical tools.

Watching those first 10 picks was sort of eye opening this year. I hadn't really heard of several of those guys. The best NBA prospects aren't playing in college as much as they used to.

Show me examples like Selden and I will show you player after player after player who boosted their stock under Self...Furphy was in a prime position to be such a player.

Do we think as the 2nd option to Dickin$on Furphy would likely have averaged 14-18 points a game? I do.

Certainly there is risk of an injury but if I were going to put a number on it, I'd have put Furphy getting drafted next year in the top 20 at -300 odds.

[pdub]

They are educated assumptions, so more like estimates, with high probability, because of the track record of players at Kansas and because of Johnny's age and usage his freshman year.

I would even say the chance of not getting drafted in the 1st round next year would be lower than his making 1st team All B12.

[DeletedUser]

He just very likely lost multiple millions. Like minimum five million, maybe ten.

Interesting to see Knecht fall because of his age.

Furphy is one that I can't quite figure out. I think it's possible he could have stayed in school and still never been "sexy" enough to go first round.

Selden stayed, and it didn't work out. So it's not always a lock that staying in school = developing into a first round pick.

Do I think Furphy could have become a better player than Selden? Maybe. Probably. Better shooter. Significantly less physical tools.

Watching those first 10 picks was sort of eye opening this year. I hadn't really heard of several of those guys. The best NBA prospects aren't playing in college as much as they used to.

Show me examples like Selden and I will show you player after player after player who boosted their stock under Self...Furphy was in a prime position to be such a player.

Oh, no doubt. I just think Furphy had a rapid rise to where he's at now, which makes it harder not to strike while the iron is hot. 12+ months ago I don't think he thought the NBA was a realistic outcome for him in the near term.

I don't know enough about next year's class to guess where he'd end up. 8 of this year's 1st rounders didn't even play in college. I do think he'd go higher next year than he is going to go this year. AND he'd be a better basketball player.

[Sparko]

Watching Furphy on the big stage, it was still too big last year. He needed maturation that would have instilled confidence. A Braun trajectory was a good model for him

[pdub]

Let's extend Furphy's minutes to 33 minutes per game and increase his FGA to 12.5 ( not out of the question - 1 shot fewer than McCullar per game ).
Let's also estimate his percentages/stats to stay as they were his freshman year ( likely to improve as a shooter but maybe now more attention from defenses - I would very much guess his 3PT% would improve though ).

That would translate to 18.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.4 APG.
( i'd bet his assists would be closer to double that though )

That's the kind of year i'd expect him to have given the history of players before him.
And if he did that, which again is very well within reason, he's a top 20 pick.

[Shirley]

I said all along Furphy should come back, he wasn’t really that great at anything here. Yes, young, but a lot of his early stats were when he just started and teams had to adjust. He also was a poor defender.

He just very likely lost multiple millions. Like minimum five million, maybe ten.

^^^

Today In: Opportunity Lost!

He looked like "a boy among men" because age-wise, he is/was, relatively speaking. Needed time to get a little older and bulk the ____ up.

[ousdahl]

I think he’ll be ok.

[pdub]

Well absolutely he will be.
But just thinking of his intentions are mostly motivated by money ( because he bounced early ), he clearly made the wrong choice here.

I personally think his odds of being drafted top 20 next season would be 75% or more.
But let's put them right at 50%.

Would you rather
A. get 400k now and a 50% chance at 10 million dollars next year?
or
B. 600k now and a 50% chance at 3 million dollars this year?

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

I said all along Furphy should come back, he wasn’t really that great at anything here. Yes, young, but a lot of his early stats were when he just started and teams had to adjust. He also was a poor defender.

He just very likely lost multiple millions. Like minimum five million, maybe ten.

^^^

Today In: Opportunity Lost!

He looked like "a boy among men" because age-wise, he is/was, relatively speaking. Needed time to get a little older and bulk the ____ up.

I don't disagree but now tell us how you feel about......

Risacher (6-9 210 pounds skinny 19 years old), Sarr (7-0 215 pounds skinny 19 years old), Holland (6-7 206 pounds skinny 18 years old), etc., etc., etc., etc., etc.,

[Shirley]

I said all along Furphy should come back, he wasn’t really that great at anything here. Yes, young, but a lot of his early stats were when he just started and teams had to adjust. He also was a poor defender.

He just very likely lost multiple millions. Like minimum five million, maybe ten.

^^^

Today In: Opportunity Lost!

He looked like "a boy among men" because age-wise, he is/was, relatively speaking. Needed time to get a little older and bulk the ____ up.

I don't disagree but now tell us how you feel about......

Risacher (6-9 210 pounds skinny 19 years old), Sarr (7-0 215 pounds skinny 19 years old), Holland (6-7 206 pounds skinny 18 years old), etc., etc., etc., etc., etc.,

I rate this post 4 on a scale of 10!

(Which is higher than the Walgreens post you made in the Politics forum earlier.)

[RainbowsandUnicorns]

^^^

Today In: Opportunity Lost!

He looked like "a boy among men" because age-wise, he is/was, relatively speaking. Needed time to get a little older and bulk the ____ up.

I don't disagree but now tell us how you feel about......

Risacher (6-9 210 pounds skinny 19 years old), Sarr (7-0 215 pounds skinny 19 years old), Holland (6-7 206 pounds skinny 18 years old), etc., etc., etc., etc., etc.,

I rate this post 4 on a scale of 10!

(Which is higher than that weakass Walgreens post you made in the Politics forum earlier.)

Damn! Thank you! I'll consider that the highlight of my day so far.
Learning I am getting a decent free lunch today comes in a close 2nd.

[Shirley]

I don't disagree but now tell us how you feel about......

Risacher (6-9 210 pounds skinny 19 years old), Sarr (7-0 215 pounds skinny 19 years old), Holland (6-7 206 pounds skinny 18 years old), etc., etc., etc., etc., etc.,

I rate this post 4 on a scale of 10!

(Which is higher than that weakass Walgreens post you made in the Politics forum earlier.)

Damn! Thank you! I'll consider that the highlight of my day so far.
Learning I am getting a decent free lunch today comes in a close 2nd.

Does "decent" mean there are only ~ 7 - 8 slices of bacon?

[pdub]

I hope Furphy at least got a free lunch yesterday.
Woof.