Kansas Crimson

Only 373 deaths reported yesterday according to John's Hopkins. Lowest since March. That's great news.

Mjl wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:39 am Only 373 deaths reported yesterday according to John's Hopkins. Lowest since March. That's great news.

Sundays have the lowest reporting. The rolling 7-day period is the number to watch.

NiceDC wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:13 am

Mjl wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:39 am Only 373 deaths reported yesterday according to John's Hopkins. Lowest since March. That's great news.

Sundays have the lowest reporting. The rolling 7-day period is the number to watch.

But that's true of every Sunday. This Sunday was the lowest Sunday since March.

I wonder if protests are shutting down clinics on weekends.

Mjl wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:14 am

NiceDC wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 10:13 am

Mjl wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:39 am Only 373 deaths reported yesterday according to John's Hopkins. Lowest since March. That's great news.

Sundays have the lowest reporting. The rolling 7-day period is the number to watch.

But that's true of every Sunday. This Sunday was the lowest Sunday since March.

Yes, it appears that social distancing and shutting down did indeed help flatten the curve. Nice! I was only pointing out that 373 is for a specific Sunday, which has the lowest reporting of any day of the week. If you Look at June 2-5, each day had over 1,000 reported deaths, with exception of June 5, that had 975. Not Nice. I'm not a doctor, or a theologian, by my assumption is people are still dying on Sundays at the normal rate, it's just less places are reporting those deaths on that day.

I think it's just a matter of deaths being the lagging readout. If you get diagnosed with Covid, and ultimately die, it takes about 2 weeks on average right, so I think we're just seeing the decrease in deaths corresponding with the numbers getting low prior to the reopening.

Deaths shouldn't be affected by closings since most people die in the hospital I would think, but I think some places just don't report on the weekend.

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:46 amDeaths shouldn't be affected by closings since most people die in the hospital I would think, but I think some places just don't report on the weekend.

Yeah, I clearly was not following correctly.

But yeah, Sundays across the globe have been reporting outliers.

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:46 am I think it's just a matter of deaths being the lagging readout. If you get diagnosed with Covid, and ultimately die, it takes about 2 weeks on average right, so I think we're just seeing the decrease in deaths corresponding with the numbers getting low prior to the reopening.

Deaths shouldn't be affected by closings since most people die in the hospital I would think, but I think some places just don't report on the weekend.

I also wonder if less stressed hospitals and better knowledge of treatment are helping out. The number of new cases has been mostly steady the last 8 weeks, while deaths are deceasing on the whole. One would think that with the deaths would be staying at the same rate as mid- to late-May, but it appears that the death rate has gone done faster than the overall new case rate. However, it also feels like we don't have as many hotspots like New York, Washington, New Orleans, Michigan, and now it's the slow spread to all the more rural areas. Just saw Vermont, which has one of the lowest infection rate, and days ago had 0 in the hospital due to Covid, and cases in the single digits, just had 24 folks infected. It's likely going to be whack-a-mole until a vaccine is developed.

Well, just looking at those numbers it makes me think increased testing may also be a factor. If higher numbers of asymptomatic people can take tests whereas before more people were denied tests, it may cause the curve for new cases to look flat when it's really in a slow decline. Deaths may be a better readout albeit a delayed one.

That is a good point. But as Crimson stated, it seems like many testing sites have had to shut down due to the protests. I think too many variable being thrown at this pandemic right now.

NiceDC wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:09 pm That is a good point. But as Crimson stated, it seems like many testing sites have had to shut down due to the protests. I think too many variable being thrown at this pandemic right now.

Well we wouldn't see an effect of re-opening or protests on deaths yet, it's too soon.

Testing centers weren't being shut down until early last week, so they would only impact new cases in that timeframe.

The other factor is that the virus may be becoming less virulent. This often happens when pathogens are spread from person to person because there is a selective pressure on the virus that is less deadly/pathogenic because being in a host that is more active (not dead or bed-ridden) results in a higher infection rate. The classic example is myxoma virus that was intentionally released in Australia to reduce the wild-rabbit population. I'm hesitant to think that's the case here because Covid19 has so many asymptomatic and mild cases, and it also has a fairly long period before the development of symptoms so it wouldn't have the severe selection associated with myxoma virus that was 95% lethal in rabbits.

TBF, the violent protests and riots were more like 10-11 days ago, but I understand your point. I'm more concerned about actual cases than deaths at this point. I think using Florida as a case study, it shows no real changes, if not an increase recently, while taking a look at New York, their lock down orders really gave health care providers a chance to curb the virus. I think the "reopening" of states can start to be seen, and I doubt those who were screaming to let them take their boat out or go to a themepark are less likely going to be the people who want to get a test for COVID. Disney World is reopening soon. It's going to be a Petridish of epic proportions.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

NiceDC wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:28 pm TBF, the violent protests and riots were more like 10-11 days ago, but I understand your point. I'm more concerned about actual cases than deaths at this point. I think using Florida as a case study, it shows no real changes, if not an increase recently, while taking a look at New York, their lock down orders really gave health care providers a chance to curb the virus. I think the "reopening" of states can start to be seen, and I doubt those who were screaming to let them take their boat out or go to a themepark are less likely going to be the people who want to get a test for COVID. Disney World is reopening soon. It's going to be a Petridish of epic proportions.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

The level of violence really doesn't have anything to do with it. It's the numbers of people. And the protests started on May 25th, which would be 2 weeks ago, but they've continued and grown in number and expanded locations since then. I'd say, the uptick we've seen up to this week would be entirely re-opening. The uptick starting, probably this week, and continuing until probably 3 weeks after these protests end, would be attributable to re-opening AND the protests.

My wild ass guess is treatment methods have become more effective as the new case count is not decreasing at the rate of decline of fatalities. Could also be more complete isolation practices at assisted and nursing home facilities. Mask wearing couldn't have hurt.

PhDhawk wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:19 pm

NiceDC wrote: ↑Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:09 pm That is a good point. But as Crimson stated, it seems like many testing sites have had to shut down due to the protests. I think too many variable being thrown at this pandemic right now.

Well we wouldn't see an effect of re-opening or protests on deaths yet, it's too soon.

Testing centers weren't being shut down until early last week, so they would only impact new cases in that timeframe.

The other factor is that the virus may be becoming less virulent. This often happens when pathogens are spread from person to person because there is a selective pressure on the virus that is less deadly/pathogenic because being in a host that is more active (not dead or bed-ridden) results in a higher infection rate. The classic example is myxoma virus that was intentionally released in Australia to reduce the wild-rabbit population. I'm hesitant to think that's the case here because Covid19 has so many asymptomatic and mild cases, and it also has a fairly long period before the development of symptoms so it wouldn't have the severe selection associated with myxoma virus that was 95% lethal in rabbits.

The emphasized section is very important for most viral (and likely bacterial) infections. After all the unwritten First Law of Parasitology is "Don't Kill the Host"! It's not in any pathogen's (or parasite's) best interest to kill the host.

**SPOILER ALERT**
Mutation to a benign strain was also the most unsatisfying end to The Andromeda Strain.

Let's hope that it's how SARS-CoV-2 gets neutralized. That, and likely development of a vaccine and herd immunity (like in 1918).

Looking at the numbers, California did seem to get a less lethal strain. Based on the Euro-virus NY seems to have been hammered with, CA is about 3,000 total deaths less than what could be expected.

California has been on an uptick lately.

Sparko wrote: ↑Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:03 pm Looking at the numbers, California did seem to get a less lethal strain. Based on the Euro-virus NY seems to have been hammered with, CA is about 3,000 total deaths less than what could be expected.

California shutdown the state by March 16. Made a big difference

zsn wrote: ↑Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:37 pm

Sparko wrote: ↑Tue Jun 09, 2020 1:03 pm Looking at the numbers, California did seem to get a less lethal strain. Based on the Euro-virus NY seems to have been hammered with, CA is about 3,000 total deaths less than what could be expected.

California shutdown the state by March 16. Made a big difference

Whereas that is true, I am basing my thesis on the total number of infections versus deaths.

I'm still having otherwise intelligent friends telling me and others that COVID-19 is a farce.
I wish it upon no one but I'm wondering if it would take them getting it AND having to be hospitalized for them to take it seriously.
Seems Arizona is getting close to panic mode on the spike. At least 75% of the states ICU beds are being used. If it continues at the rate it has been the past couple of weeks - all the beds will be full. I'm wondering what happens with all the non COVID-19 ICU patients. I figure it sucks for the Doctors and Nurses when they have to start prioritizing - and neglecting.