There are a number of reasons why a deep threat isn’t getting targeted as often as he should.
The first thing that’s going to pop through anyone’s brain when they see a title like “Xavier Worthy is getting open deep” is that Patrick Mahomes is somehow failing the speedy rookie. But the reality is that quite often, there’s more going on than the quarterback simply having a “missed shot.” If you want to talk about Mahomes’ role in such things, the weekly film review is the place to go. And we’ll talk about one of those plays a bit here (as we already did in the Week 5 review).
I’m on vacation (thanks for all the food recommendation in Dallas, it’s been terrific!), so I’ll try to make this short and sweet: Xavier Worthy is getting open down the field, and there are a combination of factors that are leading to him not getting targeted on deep shots as often as he should. The offense needs to start adjusting to build itself around his skillset with more frequency. And I’ve got ideas on how they should do that.
Before we even begin, you should know that just because Worthy is open down the field doesn’t necessarily mean that the play was a failure by the QB, OL, coaching, or anyone else. Sometimes the first read is just open and he gets the ball. Keep an eye on Worth coming across the field from the bottom of the screen.
Here, the Saints are playing man coverage with a blitz coming, so the cornerback is passing coverage of Juju Smith-Schuster off to a safety. That allows Juju to come open underneath as the first receiver that Mahomes is looking at, so the ball comes out to him. It’s a completed pass and a first down, so the play is a successful one for the offense (though the placement of the throw was less than ideal).
But again, watch Worthy. Notice anything?
Now I want to be clear; This is NOT a “missed shot” from Mahomes. There’s pressure coming right away that requires some pocket movement on his part. But more importantly, Juju does have space in the middle of the field (that dig puts him right underneath the safety who is trying to come down into man coverage) beyond the sticks. So that’s where he goes. It appears to be the first read and a well-called play to take advantage of the coverage.
But here’s where the conversation about Worthy should start. Notice that the single deep safety here (the Saints disguised as cover 2 and then ended up in man coverage with a single-high safety) flips his hips to the other side of the field before the ball comes out (ALWAYS watch coverage before the ball comes out, not after, to determine where guys are open). That leaves Worthy alone against man coverage. He’s able to grab inside leverage and accelerates up the field, getting a couple of steps. The end result is a lot of space for Mahomes to drop a deep bomb.
Should Mahomes have done it here? No, not with the way it was called up and with the reads he was utilizing. But that’s where my point is. Right now, the Chiefs offense is still operating a little bit from the bottom up. As in, the reads are starting shallow or intermediate without checking that deep shot option first. And that’s been a huge difference between the offense starting about midseason 2021 (when teams basically abandoned playing single-high against the Chiefs); The deep ball is rarely the first look.
It makes perfect sense that Reid/Mahomes (as well as Eric B and then Matt N) would make that decision. Teams were constantly playing various deep shells against the Chiefs, and once Tyreek Hill was gone their best deep threat (MVS) was inconsistent.
But things have changed now. Worthy is, from all appearances, more consistent at gaining separation deep than MVS (and does it faster), and is also better at tracking the ball deep. The Chiefs are back to having a high-level deep threat option… but their usage of reads hasn’t caught up yet, and is still starting too often from the shallow to the deep. And the result in a play like this is a missed opportunity, even if it’s not a “missed shot” by Mahomes.
The offense as a whole needs to shift to treating Worthy as the first option on different looks. And Mahomes needs to adjust to that as well. Because it’s not just against pure man looks that Worthy has grabbed space down the field. This next one is sort of tough to watch, even if it resulted in a first down on a Mahomes scramble. Watch Worthy from the top of the screen crossing the field (they love deep crossers for him).
The first thing to check out here is the terrific release Worthy gets against a defender who is trying to get hands on him to slow him down. He’s gotten more comfortable getting horizontal and then vertical in his routes while dipping his shoulder, and as a result defenders at the line aren’t making contact as often. He’s also getting more comfortable running through and navigating traffic, which he does well here through route combos that send the zone defense spinning.
The end result (when the deep safety breaks towards the middle of the field) is that Worthy ends up WIDE OPEN. You can actually see Mahomes look his way… but rather than pull the trigger he tucks the ball and takes off. He scrambles for a first down (good!) but had enough time to put this ball out there despite the pocket starting to deteriorate (bad!). This was absolutely a missed shot by Mahomes, and it’s one he needs to become more comfortable taking. The protection wasn’t great, but it was enough. And it appears to be at least a little bit a matter of trust.
We all know that Mahomes had some struggles in 2023 as his “circle of trust” shrank to Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and… Justin Watson on sideline routes. That was basically it outside of checkdowns, and he knew it. You can see some of those trust issues bleeding into his 2024 tape, as there have been times he COULD take a shot to Worthy but has hesitated. Some of that (like in the above play) also comes back to lack of trust in the OL. Here, he got happy feet when he had enough time to set and fire with anticipation. I believe that’s a combination of not trusting his blocking and Worhty not quite being in the circle of trust yet with Kelce and Juju (and again, Watson on sideline routes, where he morphs into Jerry Rice once per game).
As I wrote about in the Week 5 Mahomes review, this wasn’t the only time Mahomes didn’t fire to Worthy based on trusting his legs more than the rookie WR. His unbelievable 3rd down scramble to ice the game featured another nice route by Worthy that grabbed him separation down the field.
Now, let me be VERY clear… I can understand why Mahomes (who clearly sees Worthy and almost lets it fly) might not throw the ball down the field in this situation. It’s 3rd and 9 with under 7 minutes left and the Saints have already burned 2 timeouts. So I can understand why an incompletion (or risk of a pick) might make Mahomes hesitate here, especially if he thinks he’s got space to make something happen with his legs. I don’t agree with it, but I understand it, so this one wasn’t charted as a missed shot.
That said, you can see the similar point here to the last several; Worthy is getting open down the field. The defender tries to slow him up with contact and Worthy gets a nice inside release and shakes it off (the defender holds, really, but I digress). The safety help goes elsewhere, and Mahomes had space to drop this over the top. It would’ve been a highly aggressive shot play, yes. But that’s what Worthy is there for; Aggressive shot plays to get the offense back to its 2018-2021 (midseason) roots of bombs away.
It’s worth noting that the pass blocking has let Worthy down a time or two as well. He could’ve gotten a deep(ish) target in the red zone on yet another crosser (are you sensing a pattern here?) if the pass protection had held up. Watch him get free down the field from the slot after yet another nice release.
Again (I can’t stress this enough), Worthy has already grown in his ability to dip around contact and flow through it rather than being jammed up by it. He gets that inside leverage and, had Mahomes had time before he needed to scramble, had plenty of space for Mahomes to throw it in front of him (with the defender’s back turned he would’ve been able to accelerate towards the corner of the end zone). It would’ve taken a good throw, but nothing we haven’t seen Mahomes do many times.
Unfortunately, this was a rough snap for Wanya Morris, who has overall been at least adequate after replacing Kingsley Suamataia. The pressure gets around the edge quickly, and Mahomes doesn’t have time to set up to fire the sort of throw needed on this sort of route and coverage. He’s able to buy enough time to make a positive play regardless, but a shot to the end zone was taken away due to the protection not holding up.
It’s just one game, and I’m not here to say that Worthy is constantly open on every snap. However, having a WR get legitimate separation on four deep shot opportunities and not see the ball on any of them is demonstrative of an issue. And it’s not just Mahomes, or just Reid/playcalling, or the OL. It’s a combination of the factors. Right now, the offense isn’t designed around Worthy’s skillset. As I noted earlier, they haven’t been designed that way for years.
Once teams decided they just weren’t going to let Mahomes beat them deep, the entire system got revamped. And again, this happened during the middle of the 2021 season (check out Weeks 7-9 of the 2021 season), WHILE the Chiefs still had Tyreek Hill at WR and Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. Teams stopped blitzing and were almost exclusively in various deep shell looks. And so Mahomes/Reid adapted and started killing teams with shallow/intermediate stuff. And in 2022, it worked to the tune of the offense being the best in the league.
Last season, things started to shift. As I wrote about on more than one occasion, teams were no longer playing Mahomes exclusively with deep shells and were being more aggressive in taking away shallow/intermediate stuff because they didn’t fear getting roasted over the top any longer. That trend has continued this season at times despite Worthy’s presence, and teams are still not in full “shell” mode. That’s leaving opportunities on the field for Worthy, who has shown a knack for getting open down the field.
It’s always hard to say what would have happened, but imagine if Worthy had gotten targeted on all 4 of the shots we discussed here (again, this is just one game!) and connected on even half of them. That would’ve been an extra 60+ yards on the day or more, with perhaps a TD in there as well. And the entire conversation surrounding the rookie WR and the Chief’s offense as a whole would be different.
The Chiefs should be looking for help at the WR position, but the downfield shots are there. They just need to start thinking like it’s 2020 again, utilizing the unique downfield threat they have in Worthy. That will force defenses to play like an accordion, stretching out and leaving stuff open shallow until it hurts them (Kelce and Juju are perfect players to take advantage of this), then compressing shallow until Worthy hurts them again.
Forcing defenses into impossible decisions is why you grab a player like Worthy and pair him with a guy like Mahomes. They just need to do it. And the more recent usage of under center play action looks is the perfect vehicle for them to get there while still providing Mahomes with the protection he needs (especially with the ground game being as efficient as it has been).
All right, I’m going back to vacation. Here’s hoping we see a more downfield-driven (and Worthy-centric) offense coming out of the bye week.
