TDub wrote: ↑Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:35 amMasters guesses?
Ranked in order of likelihood of victory imo:
1. Rory: he's striking the ball so well. He's mentally in the best spot he's been in years. He truly believes he can win. I think any demons from his collapse many years ago are gone. He's played well at Augusta the last handful of years. He's a magician around the greens. All he needs is a decent week putting and he will have a good chance to win. He's my top pick to win it, although it's golf so that means I give him about a 20% chance or so.
2. Rickie Fowler: I don't think he is better than guys like DJ/Rose/Koepka/JT, but he has the tools to do it at Augusta. Seems to believe it's his time, and not just saying it to the media like athletes do. Runner up last year, although that's not why I'm picking him. His biggest issue is he tends to make a big number somewhere during majors. If he can avoid a double bogey or worse all week I think he will be right there. Has the length to reach the par 5s and he's good putting and around the greens. He's not a great front runner, so if he's going to win I think it's best for him to be coming from behind on Sunday in the 2nd to last group.
3. Jordan Speith: he's driving the ball terribly. Something like 200ish is driving accuracy. He hasn't played well in over a year. Hasn't really contended in majors since Augusta last year....wait am I supposed to be saying why I am picking him?....oh ya....well, mainly because it's Augusta, and he's a handful of shots away from winning 4 of the last 5 of these. He's magical around the greens. He seems to putt better on fast greens with lots of slope for whatever reason...my personal belief is that for "feel putters" (occasionally he will look at the hole and not the ball to really "feel it") these types of greens are easier for them to putt on. On flat greens there are only a few combos of speed and line to make a given putt. On these greens there's a million ways to make each putt as long as you can match speed and line which is all imagination. He loves Augusta. And frankly he's too talented to keep sucking. Showed some life last week before a bad 3rd round. He's not a Vegas favorite to win, but I'd be shocked if he's not top 10 at the end of the week.
4. Jon Rahm: he's a fierce competitor. Seems to finally be learning to control emotions. He's got the distance, the guts, and the short game. This guy can go low. I actually think he's better than Rickie talent wise as the best young guy to never win a major, but rickie has a few more years experience under his belt. Rahm winning would shock nobody, especially not me.
5. Tiger Woods: hasn't been putting well, but that won't last forever. He has been driving the ball well, and he's probably the best iron player the game has ever seen. His biggest challenge will be to avoid "trying too hard" or getting frustrated if he gets off to a slow start on Thursday (which he's done a lot)....he knows this course as well as anyone. The crowds will be behind him 100%. I don't think he's got a lot more of these chances left, and if he can avoid thinking about that himself, and just stay patient and let the game come to him, then I think he'll be right there come Sunday. He needs to take advantage of par 5s and stay out of the trees. Going to need to make some putts, but similar to Speith I think the difficult greens will be a net positive for him compared to the field.
6. Paul Casey: almost missed the cut last year but rallied to a top 20 finish. Hits it straight. Can putt. Good around greens. And before last year had a run of top 5-10 finishes at Augusta for several years in a row. He's not a great "winner", so he'd probably be best suited to be coming from behind on Sunday and posting a score, but as we've seen anything can happen on the back 9 Sunday at the masters. He's got a chance.
Others I expect to be in the top 10-15ish range:
Kuchar: he's a douche but has a great track record at Augusta.
Charlie Hoffman: hasn't played well this year, but looked nice last week...and similar to Kuchar plays Augusta very well.
Hideki: has a decent track record at Augusta. Can take advantage of par 5s. Is a really good putter on fast greens and solid around the greens.
Kisner: just won the match play. Great ball striker. Went to college in Georgia. Decent track record at Augusta. And he's gritty as fuck. If he can get in contention he will believe he can win.
Guys I'm not high on (which means winner is guaranteed to come from this group so that I have to eat my words)....
DJ: I don't expect him to suck, but he's not had a great history with the course. Not as good around the greens as some of the other top players. There's no doubt if he gets hot he can win any week, but I don't think this is the week.
Koepka: he's a beast in majors but hasn't been in this major. He's one of those rare breeds though. If he can get close to the lead it'll help him play better, but if he doesn't feel like he can win I don't think he will grind quite as hard.
JT: just a bit too wild off the tee for my tastes at Augusta. Better suited for the other majors. Not a great history at Augusta.
Bryson: has some new clubs in the bag they're working on dialing in. He's got a shit load of talent, but the sloped fairways and tricky green side areas make his weird angle of attack tricky to dial in. He had a top 20ish finish as an amateur a few years ago, but I think he needs a few more trips to Augusta before he will be ready to contend for a green jacket.