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Re: COVID-19 numbers
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:52 pm
by NDballer13
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:55 am
While obviously we are most concerned what is happening in the US, I have to wonder what the fuck happened in Italy, Spain, and a lot of Europe. Those numbers are staggering.
What I'm wondering is what did China do that the rest of the world isn't? Started there. They have more people than any other country. So naturally a new and deadly disease will have a major impact until a lot of the questions get answered, yet they have dropped off completely to almost no more spread whereas the rest of the world is setting new daily records each day as far as new cases.
As of this posting USA has over 15,000 new cases today. Italy has over 4000. Spain over 5000. China? China has 30.
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:55 am
While obviously we are most concerned what is happening in the US, I have to wonder what the fuck happened in Italy, Spain, and a lot of Europe. Those numbers are staggering.
What I'm wondering is what did China do that the rest of the world isn't? Started there. They have more people than any other country. So naturally a new and deadly disease will have a major impact until a lot of the questions get answered, yet they have dropped off completely to almost no more spread whereas the rest of the world is setting new daily records each day as far as new cases.
As of this posting USA has over 15,000 new cases today. Italy has over 4000. Spain over 5000. China? China has 30.
Oh, you can throw China's numbers straight into the garbage.
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:55 am
While obviously we are most concerned what is happening in the US, I have to wonder what the fuck happened in Italy, Spain, and a lot of Europe. Those numbers are staggering.
What I'm wondering is what did China do that the rest of the world isn't? Started there. They have more people than any other country. So naturally a new and deadly disease will have a major impact until a lot of the questions get answered, yet they have dropped off completely to almost no more spread whereas the rest of the world is setting new daily records each day as far as new cases.
As of this posting USA has over 15,000 new cases today. Italy has over 4000. Spain over 5000. China? China has 30.
Oh, you can throw China's numbers straight into the garbage.
Or into the mass graves where they buried the bodies.
Also, as I understand it, China initiated mass involuntary quarantines from the start -- and NOT home quarantines. Anyone testing positive went to a specific quarantine site; anyone exposed but NOT testing positive went to another site; anyone potentially exposed went to a third site, etc. That plus the willingness and ability to track people (via phones, drones, and security cameras), allowed the CCP to crack down hard.
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:55 am
While obviously we are most concerned what is happening in the US, I have to wonder what the fuck happened in Italy, Spain, and a lot of Europe. Those numbers are staggering.
What I'm wondering is what did China do that the rest of the world isn't? Started there. They have more people than any other country. So naturally a new and deadly disease will have a major impact until a lot of the questions get answered, yet they have dropped off completely to almost no more spread whereas the rest of the world is setting new daily records each day as far as new cases.
As of this posting USA has over 15,000 new cases today. Italy has over 4000. Spain over 5000. China? China has 30.
China has three prongs to why they aren't getting as many cases.
0. We don't know how accurate numbers they are reporting. But lets just assume they are not trying to hide numbers, move onto the next
1. They put in place hugely draconian measures. They had officials roaming the streets, taking people's temperature. If you are feverish, they just take you off the street. Separate you from the population. No saying goodbye to your family, no packing up a day bag. You go to a secured location, and had to stay there until your test came clear. This sucks, but this worked. But if you did this in America, conservatives would be holed up with their guns, and and liberals would be shouting about their liberties.
2. Government tracking of people's movement, largely through their cell phones, allows folks to be able to pass if they haven't been to an area of outbreaks. If you been to a hotspot, you cannot go to public places, and can even be quarantined
3. US has a patchwork of responses. Idaho for example, has been resistant to doing anything, and as far as I know, haven't shut down anything. Other states shut things down quick, but probably not quick enough. My own local reps in NYC telling people not to be scared of the disease, and to live life. This New Yorker mentality works for terrorism. It doesn't work for an invisible killer. America fucked up, and we don't have a mentality of doing what's best for us.
What I'm wondering is what did China do that the rest of the world isn't? Started there. They have more people than any other country. So naturally a new and deadly disease will have a major impact until a lot of the questions get answered, yet they have dropped off completely to almost no more spread whereas the rest of the world is setting new daily records each day as far as new cases.
As of this posting USA has over 15,000 new cases today. Italy has over 4000. Spain over 5000. China? China has 30.
Oh, you can throw China's numbers straight into the garbage.
Or into the mass graves where they buried the bodies.
Also, as I understand it, China initiated mass involuntary quarantines from the start -- and NOT home quarantines. Anyone testing positive went to a specific quarantine site; anyone exposed but NOT testing positive went to another site; anyone potentially exposed went to a third site, etc. That plus the willingness and ability to track people (via phones, drones, and security cameras), allowed the CCP to crack down hard.
I'll admit I've been ignorant to the world wide reactions and treatments by the rest of the world, but this is kind of what I assumed happened. They went from "flattening the curve" to a straight cliff drop in cases. I figured the truth lied somewhere between they just gave up trying to track it and straight up executing anyone who coughs.
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:55 am
While obviously we are most concerned what is happening in the US, I have to wonder what the fuck happened in Italy, Spain, and a lot of Europe. Those numbers are staggering.
What I'm wondering is what did China do that the rest of the world isn't? Started there. They have more people than any other country. So naturally a new and deadly disease will have a major impact until a lot of the questions get answered, yet they have dropped off completely to almost no more spread whereas the rest of the world is setting new daily records each day as far as new cases.
As of this posting USA has over 15,000 new cases today. Italy has over 4000. Spain over 5000. China? China has 30.
1) many of those in asian countries wear masks perpetually
2) their bodies/immune systems have undoubtedly been bombarded by these kinds of viruses more than western societies historically
3) their citizens actually obeyed the gov’t orders for social distancing and sheltering in place
Re: COVID-19 numbers
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:18 pm
by CrimsonNBlue
Oh lord, almost all of that is wrong to some degree.
Re: COVID-19 numbers
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:22 pm
by Deleted User 89
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:18 pm
Oh lord, almost all of that is wrong to some degree.
lol...ok
#2 is the only one that is my personal hunch (not supported anywhere that i’ve seen)
the others, well, i’ve seen references to those reasons in numerous places. and i’m not just talking about china.
if i’m so wrong, then why do YOU think asian/southeast asian countries have been more successful than those in the west?
is it because of testing alone?
Re: COVID-19 numbers
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:26 pm
by PhDhawk
The only thing we can say with any confidence coming out of China right now, is that it appears that after trying to lift restrictions and reopen businesses they've had a second wave of covid-19.
Which is worse news than the unsurprising revelation that they've been cooking the books at every step of this.
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:55 am
While obviously we are most concerned what is happening in the US, I have to wonder what the fuck happened in Italy, Spain, and a lot of Europe. Those numbers are staggering.
What I'm wondering is what did China do that the rest of the world isn't? Started there. They have more people than any other country. So naturally a new and deadly disease will have a major impact until a lot of the questions get answered, yet they have dropped off completely to almost no more spread whereas the rest of the world is setting new daily records each day as far as new cases.
As of this posting USA has over 15,000 new cases today. Italy has over 4000. Spain over 5000. China? China has 30.
1) many of those in asian countries wear masks perpetually
2) their bodies/immune systems have undoubtedly been bombarded by these kinds of viruses more than western societies historically
3) their citizens actually obeyed the gov’t orders for social distancing and sheltering in place
lulz
Re: COVID-19 numbers
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:35 pm
by Deleted User 89
i’ll also add that asian societies tend to not cluster socially to the degree many western societies do
CrimsonNBlue wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:18 pm
Oh lord, almost all of that is wrong to some degree.
lol...ok
#2 is the only one that is my personal hunch (not supported anywhere that i’ve seen)
the others, well, i’ve seen references to those reasons in numerous places. and i’m not just talking about china.
if i’m so wrong, then why do YOU think asian/southeast asian countries have been more successful than those in the west?
is it because of testing alone?
Well, it's not that you are "so wrong" on all of this. It's just that the entire argument is about China's low numbers. Which, are just not reality. So, I'm not even sure what the point is for arguing over the reasons for something that is not even true. China proved during SARS where its priority lies with reporting these type of things. And, some of those reasons are similar to Trump's motivations for his early response.
But, I'll offer my thoughts on each, anyway: Perpetual mask wearing is basically limited to Japan (who is also lying hard about their numbers). The virus has hit every country in Asia. That's not to say I don't think masks help, but we are talking about a wide valley in numbers reported by western countries and China's numbers. Mask wearing doesn't help explain that full scale of a gap unless this thing is highly contagious through by being airborne and then the numbers would be even more deadly all over the world. It is true, in some East Asian cultures that wearing a mask is considered courteous and dutiful when you are sick. Which, did lead to some Asian countries buying masks in hordes, but that was after the virus had already hit and does not suggest that everyone always wears masks and that has kept numbers low. Sounds more like assumptions of a culture.
Which, those assumptions bring us to No. 2. Which, as you say is your hunch and not based on any fact. What is fact is that there are 1000's of zoonotic viruses every year all over the world, and the existence of those sure hasn't made anyone immune to the coronavirus that is causing COVID-19. SARS exposure certainly hasn't saved any lives in Wuhan.
3 is the closest and "physical distancing" is definitely the right approach. There seems to be an assumption, though, that East Asian countries have practiced this to perfection, which has not been 100% accurate. They have not gone to some carryout only/takeout only system (or "orders") in the hardest hit countries. Hell, there were clubs packed full of kids in some of the hardest hit asian countries these last few weeks. Not to mention the mega churches, but, let's not go there.
But, they have been better than the US about this! Part of that is 1. they're forced to by their governments because of way different civil liberties laws and tracking/containment. 2. True patriarchal cultures--enough said. 3. Homogenous cultures--should be enough said. and 4. Might be the biggest--past experience with SARS and MERS.
But, yes, testing had a lot to do with it. Testing gave them knowledge, and with that knowledge they were able to isolate--most of that isolation occurred because of the cultural things stated and reduction of civil liberties.
Re: COVID-19 numbers
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:44 pm
by CrimsonNBlue
TraditionKU wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:35 pm
i’ll also add that asian societies tend to not cluster socially to the degree many western societies do
???? I'm not sure what that means. In so many East Asian countries, they literally live on top of each other!
Re: COVID-19 numbers
Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:48 pm
by CrimsonNBlue
PhDhawk wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:26 pm
The only thing we can say with any confidence coming out of China right now, is that it appears that after trying to lift restrictions and reopen businesses they've had a second wave of covid-19.
Which is worse news than the unsurprising revelation that they've been cooking the books at every step of this.
Asia's new concerns now: avoiding cluster outbreaks (which is about physical distancing b/c everyone is stir crazy) and foreigners bringing it in (which is about closing down borders which affects economy and diplomacy).
TraditionKU wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:35 pm
i’ll also add that asian societies tend to not cluster socially to the degree many western societies do
???? I'm not sure what that means. In so many East Asian countries, they literally live on top of each other!
living on top of one another isn’t what i’m talking about
clubs, beaches, etc...
and i could be wrong. i’m speaking from my limited experiences in japan, indonesia, and the philippines
And, I would respond with my anecdotes being different. That said, within the same country, you can, and I have, found a different experience depending what part you are in, just like here.
I just think of days being packed in Asian subway cars like sardines and not a single soul covers their face to cough or sneeze; being pushed out of the way by huge crowds on the sidewalk; being packed in a nightclub where there seems to be a ban on any music but techno and house, drinking and eating next to 100's picnic-ing next to water in the nice weather, etc.
I'm honestly quite impressed with some of these Asian countries for keeping their curves respectable despite being some of the most densely populated countries in the world.
That's what I started this whole thing with the question of what the fuck happened in Italy?