Major housing crash coming this winter or sooner

[Overlander]

The crash is definitely being felt in Colorado.

When we passed through the Springs we noticed that a house a couple of doors down from ours was just listed for sale. It is essentially the same size as ours; 2500 sf mid 1950's ranch in very good condition. But the floor plan is not as good in some respects for our purposes; smaller room for kitchen, master bedroom and living room. Ours has more updated finishes. We also have a 400 sf stand alone garage off the alley whereas there is part of the house. They listed this one at $70K more than we paid for ours 3 months ago, that ends up being 17% jump in price/sf. We will wait to see if they get the asking, hell it might sell for more. There aren't many homes for sale in our part of town.

Yes, Comrade Ousy....we own three houses, just because we can.

Careful, if you turn a profit on any of those homes...Lil' Cap'n Facemask is going to call you out.

[japhy]

The crash is definitely being felt in Colorado.

When we passed through the Springs we noticed that a house a couple of doors down from ours was just listed for sale. It is essentially the same size as ours; 2500 sf mid 1950's ranch in very good condition. But the floor plan is not as good in some respects for our purposes; smaller room for kitchen, master bedroom and living room. Ours has more updated finishes. We also have a 400 sf stand alone garage off the alley whereas there is part of the house. They listed this one at $70K more than we paid for ours 3 months ago, that ends up being 17% jump in price/sf. We will wait to see if they get the asking, hell it might sell for more. There aren't many homes for sale in our part of town.

Yes, Comrade Ousy....we own three houses, just because we can.

Careful, if you turn a profit on any of those homes...Lil' Cap'n Facemask is going to call you out.

I'm going to keep these, so Ousy always has a basement to live in.

[shindig]

The house I listed on zillow is still for sale. Started out at $360k, now it's $329k. I haven't seen too many people looking at it. I think when you get to the $300k+ range, people expect more modern amenities and updates, at least I would. But that house in Denver would probably sell as is for half a million or more I'm guessing, different markets.

[Deleted User 863]

The house I listed on zillow is still for sale. Started out at $360k, now it's $329k. I haven't seen too many people looking at it. I think when you get to the $300k+ range, people expect more modern amenities and updates, at least I would. But that house in Denver would probably sell as is for half a million or more I'm guessing, different markets.

I was in Nashville not long ago and it's unreal how much 3 bed 2 bath 1950s ranches sell for.

[shindig]

The house I listed on zillow is still for sale. Started out at $360k, now it's $329k. I haven't seen too many people looking at it. I think when you get to the $300k+ range, people expect more modern amenities and updates, at least I would. But that house in Denver would probably sell as is for half a million or more I'm guessing, different markets.

I was in Nashville not long ago and it's unreal how much 3 bed 2 bath 1950s ranches sell for.

I bet. Nashville has been hot for the last decade or so, similar to Austin. I've been to Nashville several times, I like it, but just don't see the appeal. Outside of downtown (which is booming), there really aren't that many old interesting neighborhoods like you have in KC with the Rivermarket, Bottoms, NE, Crossroads, Hyde park, Westport, Plaza, Brookside, Waldo, etc.

[Deleted User 863]

The house I listed on zillow is still for sale. Started out at $360k, now it's $329k. I haven't seen too many people looking at it. I think when you get to the $300k+ range, people expect more modern amenities and updates, at least I would. But that house in Denver would probably sell as is for half a million or more I'm guessing, different markets.

I was in Nashville not long ago and it's unreal how much 3 bed 2 bath 1950s ranches sell for.

I bet. Nashville has been hot for the last decade or so, similar to Austin. I've been to Nashville several times, I like it, but just don't see the appeal. Outside of downtown (which is booming), there really aren't that many old interesting neighborhoods like you have in KC with the Rivermarket, Bottoms, NE, Crossroads, Hyde park, Westport, Plaza, Brookside, Waldo, etc.

Nashville is starting to revive their old neighborhoods and small commercial type areas like that. I had no idea Nashville had grown so much.

I like Nashville. Downtown is booming for sure, but not my favorite big city downtown area. Franklin has a really cool town square type area with brick roads and cool little shops and food spots.

Those suburbs of Nashville are insanely hot housing markets right now.

[Overlander]

The house I listed on zillow is still for sale. Started out at $360k, now it's $329k. I haven't seen too many people looking at it. I think when you get to the $300k+ range, people expect more modern amenities and updates, at least I would. But that house in Denver would probably sell as is for half a million or more I'm guessing, different markets.

I was in Nashville not long ago and it's unreal how much 3 bed 2 bath 1950s ranches sell for.

I bet. Nashville has been hot for the last decade or so, similar to Austin. I've been to Nashville several times, I like it, but just don't see the appeal. Outside of downtown (which is booming), there really aren't that many old interesting neighborhoods like you have in KC with the Rivermarket, Bottoms, NE, Crossroads, Hyde park, Westport, Plaza, Brookside, Waldo, etc.

They are there. A occasional visitor to KC wouldn't know most of the areas that you listed.

[japhy]

There is video of the housing crash in Miami. Squirt called it.

[Deleted User 89]

lol...well played, Japhy

[Overlander]

There is video of the housing crash in Miami. Squirt called it.

Please, tell me Li' Squirt is going to come on here and explain to you how this is even possible....given his knowledge of structures and what not.

[japhy]

Good news, the TV station found an expert to talk about structures and possible collapse mechanisms for the condo in Miami. If you want to know what it sounds like when someone who has no clue what they are talking about agrees to an interview, this guy is a perfect example. He doesn't even understand the term "means and methods"; well done. The 9/11 truthers should get this guy to give an opinion on the WTC collapse.

[media]https://www.yahoo.com/news/architect-di ... 03271.html[/media]

[Deleted User 863]

[japhy]

Shiller said there is no "clean explanation" why the housing market is so hot. He expects it to continue another year or two driven by low interest rates and the COVID-19 pandemic work-from-home revolution.

There is no clear explanation, but I will give you an explanation. His prediction has the same definitive characteristics that squirts do. Sometime in the next year or two or three of four.

[Overlander]

Shiller said there is no "clean explanation" why the housing market is so hot. He expects it to continue another year or two driven by low interest rates and the COVID-19 pandemic work-from-home revolution.

There is no clear explanation, but I will give you an explanation. His prediction has the same definitive characteristics that squirts do. Sometime in the next year or two or three of four.

So, a safe 100% prediction.









Eventually.

[Cascadia]

illy joining team lobby is fitting

[Deleted User 89]

though not surprising

[Cascadia]

How long until we get his take on 9/11?

[Deleted User 863]

You 2 having daily meltdowns about everything i post is cute.

Who knew only lobster was the only 1 who is concerned about the real estate market.

I am far from predicting gloom and doom (and tbh values are so market specific that any broad prediction seems silly)...

But think about it like this....many people buy as much house (or close to it) as the bank will finance. Pair that with a time where markets all over the country have seemingly low inventory (partially caused by covid), and you have prices that can artificially inflate. What adds even more danger to the scenario are the low interest rates, which allows for people to get approved for even more money to buy a house.

So right now it feels like house values are soaring in many areas. Which is good if you sell now and then turn around an buy so you can lock in those lower rates.

...but what happens in 3-5 years? If/when rates start to go up closer to 5% 6% or 7% for a 30yr note (which you'd think eventually they have to) that is going to greatly impact home values. Especially for the people buying right now who sold their house for a decent profit, but turned right around and paid what will most likely be over fair market value for the new house due to low inventory/ low interest rates...and then add in how interest for FNMA loans is typically front loaded. You have a recipe for people to get in trouble with their equity position.

This isn't a lobster vs everyone else topic. It's strange that you guys try to make it that way.

[Deleted User 863]

My bank is even doing discounts to appraised values on in-house residential loans while making underwriting decisions so that loan to value ratios are closer to what lenders actually think real market value will be once inventory is back to more historic levels in our markets.

For our customers who are house flippers/land lords we do rate shock analysis to see how their cash flow protects out in 5 years once we are almost certain rates are significantly higher and their notes will be up for renewal.

[Deleted User 89]

You 2 having daily meltdowns about everything i post is cute.

talk to me after i’ve deleted and created multiple accounts cuz i can’t stand the heat, snowflake